ISLAMABAD - The government would unveil the Economic Survey 2016-17 today (Thursday), which would show that government has missed the key economic targets including GDP growth, budget deficit, exports, imports, investments and tax collection for outgoing financial year (FY2017).
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar would release the Economic Survey one day before the announcement of annual budget for the next fiscal year. The PML-N government would once again miss the key economic targets, as majority of the targets were unrealistic. However, the government would achieve some of the targets like restricting inflation rate for FY2017.
The country has achieved 5.27 percent economic growth during FY2017 as against the target of 5.7 percent. Despite missing the target, the GDP growth is highest in last ten years. Similarly, the government would miss the budget deficit target by wide margin due to lower tax collection. The deficit is likely to go beyond the revised target of 4.1 percent of the GDP (Rs1.375 trillion) by the end of June 2017.
Tax collection is another failure of the government during current financial year. The government had estimated that Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) would collect only Rs3500 billion as against the ambitious target of Rs3621 billion for the FY2017.
The government has also failed to enhance the country’s exports and reducing imports during ongoing financial year. The government would miss the exports target by $3 billion during ongoing financial year 2016-17. Pakistan’s exports would reach $21.7 billion during current fiscal year as against the target of $24.8 billion. Similarly, the government would also miss the target of keeping imports at $45.2 billion, as they would reach $50 billion, highest-ever level. Therefore, the trade deficit, gap between imports and exports, would widen by $28.3 billion during the year 2016-17 as compared to the target of $24 billion. Pakistan’s current account deficit would also go to the higher level mainly due to subdued exports and growing imports. The Economic Survey of Pakistan would show that government had missed the target of enhancing investment to GDP ration to 17.7 percent, as it remained at around 15 percent during FY2017.
Industrial sector would miss the growth target of 6.4 percent, as it is expected to remain at around 5.02 percent during ongoing financial year. In manufacturing sector, mining and quarrying grew by 1.34 percent. Large scale manufacturing sector recorded growth of 4.93 percent as compared to target of 5.9 percent and small scale manufacturing sector would grow by 8.18pc against target of 8.2pc during ongoing financial year 2016-2017. The electricity and gas generations and distributions have recorded growth of 3.4 percent and construction sector would record massive growth of 9.05 percent during ongoing financial year.
The agricultural and services sectors had registered healthy growths during current financial year. The agriculture sector has achieved the growth target of 3.5 percent. In agriculture sector, crops recorded growth of 3.02 percent. fishing recorded a growth of 1.23 percent against the target of 3 percent, forestry 14.49 percent as compared to the target of 3 percent, livestock 3.43 percent against the target of 4 percent. The growth of five important crops including wheat, maize, rice, sugarcane and cotton is estimated at 0.5pc, 16.3pc, 0.7pc, 12.4pc and 7.6pc, respectively.
The services sector would surpass the target of 5.7 percent, as it would remain at 5.98 percent during present fiscal year. In services sector, wholesale and retail trade recorded growth of 6.82 percent against the target of 5.5 percent. Transport, storage and communication would miss the target of 5.1 percent, as it would record growth of 3.94 percent and finance and insurance will grow by 10.77 percent as compared to the target of 7.2 percent during outgoing fiscal year.
The government would achieve the inflation target of 6 percent. The inflation is likely to remain at below 5 percent during current fiscal year.
Meanwhile, according to official handout, Finance Minister, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar, will formally launch the Economic Survey 2016-17 today. He will share the key economic indicators and the performance of different sectors of the economy with the media. The finance minister will also provide an overview of the economic progress made in recent years in Pakistan. He will highlight the main features of the comprehensive reforms agenda undertaken by the present government, which has resulted in macro-economic stability and a ten-year high growth rate of 5.28%.
On Friday (26th May), the finance minister will present the budget for FY2017-2018 on the floor of the National Assembly. In his budget speech, the finance minister will provide details of the revenue, expenditure and relief measures envisaged for the next fiscal year.