Russia’s Nuclear Shift

On 20 November, President Vladimir Putin formalised sweeping changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which has sent geopolit­ical analysts into overdrive, dissecting its strategic intent and implications for the delicate equilibrium of global security and nucle­ar deterrence. It is significant to note that this doctrine must be analysed through the lens of Russia’s national security imper­atives, particularly in response to NATO’s expansion and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It represents a defensive strategy aimed at countering existential threats, driven by the West’s ongoing military support for Kyiv, which Moscow views as a direct threat to its sovereignty and regional stability.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO’s eastward expansion has been a source of contention for Moscow. The pros­pect of Ukraine, a country with deep historical, cultural, and strate­gic ties to Russia, joining NATO has been seen as an existential threat. For Russia, the war in Ukraine is not just a battle over territory but a struggle to prevent what it perceives as encirclement by a hostile alli­ance. The involvement of multiple Western states, coordinated by the US, has reinforced Moscow’s belief that its very existence is at stake. The Kremlin sees Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and the Western mili­tary build-up as direct provocations, pushing it to adopt a more asser­tive nuclear posture. This is not an arbitrary decision but a calculated response to a geopolitical reality that Russia finds intolerable.

The Biden administration’s role in escalating this conflict cannot be overlooked. Since the outset of the war in Ukraine, the US has been a principal supporter of Kyiv, providing substantial military funding, in­telligence, and advanced weapons systems such as HIMARS rocket sys­tems and air defence platforms. This steady flow of assistance has en­abled Ukraine to sustain its defence and launch counteroffensives, but it has also deepened Russia’s mistrust of Western intentions. Europe­an states, especially the UK, Germany, and Poland, have also played a significant role in supporting Ukraine’s war effort. Germany’s provi­sion of Leopard 2 tanks and air defence systems, the UK’s supply of Storm Shadow missiles, and Poland’s consistent logistical and mili­tary support are emblematic of the broader European commitment to countering Russia. These efforts have not gone unnoticed in Moscow, where they are viewed as a coordinated campaign to weaken Russia and shift the balance of power in Eastern Europe. Recently, this sup­port has reached a critical juncture with the approval of long-range missiles for Ukraine, as these weapons allow Ukraine to target critical infrastructure and military installations deep within Russian territory, crossing a red line that Moscow has long warned against.

By lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use and introducing deliberate ambiguity, Moscow aims to deter NATO and its allies from further escalation. The doctrine explicitly reserves the right to use nu­clear weapons in conventional conflicts involving nuclear-armed states or their proxies, a provision clearly aimed at the current dynamics in Ukraine. While critics may argue that this increases the risk of mis­calculation, Russia views it as a necessary safeguard against the over­whelming conventional military superiority of the US and its allies.

Russia’s reliance on nuclear ambiguity is both a deterrent and a psy­chological weapon. By refusing to clarify the specific conditions under which it would use nuclear weapons, Moscow aims to keep its adver­saries guessing, complicating NATO’s strategic planning and deterring further escalation. This ambiguity, however, carries significant risks. The provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine and their potential use against high-value targets inside Russia could easily be interpreted as crossing a red line, triggering a disproportionate response from Mos­cow. In a conflict where communication between Russia and the West is at its weakest in decades, the margin for error is alarmingly thin.

Critics argue that this doctrine increases the risk of nuclear escalation, but it is essential to consider the alternative. Without such a deterrent, Russia would face overwhelming conventional military pressure from NATO and its allies, further eroding its strategic position. The doctrine re­flects Russia’s recognition that it cannot match NATO’s conventional capa­bilities and must rely on its nuclear arsenal to maintain a balance of power.

Globally, it is imperative to approach this crisis with a balanced and nuanced perspective. While condemning Russia’s actions is easy, un­derstanding its motivations is crucial for de-escalation. NATO’s sup­port for Ukraine, while aimed at preserving sovereignty and deter­ring aggression, must be carefully calibrated to avoid pushing Russia into a corner. The provision of long-range missiles and other advanced weaponry risks crossing red lines that could lead to catastrophic con­sequences. At the same time, efforts must be made to rebuild trust and re-establish channels of communication between Russia and the West. The erosion of arms control agreements, such as the suspension of the New START Treaty, has left the world vulnerable to unintended escala­tion. Restoring these frameworks and fostering dialogue is essential for preventing further deterioration of the global security environment.

Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine is not an act of recklessness but a calculated response to the existential threats it perceives from NA­TO’s expansion and Western military support for Ukraine. It reflects a defensive posture aimed at safeguarding sovereignty and maintain­ing strategic stability in a world where trust between nuclear pow­ers has eroded. Understanding these motivations and addressing the root causes of the conflict are critical for avoiding a catastrophic esca­lation and ensuring a stable, secure future.

Dr. Gul.i.Ayesha Bhatti
The writer is a current affairs analyst and faculty member at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad. She can be reached at guleayeshabhatti@gmail.com