Since 1974, India has set its course to achieve the status of a hegemonic power, turning it into a provocateur in the South Asian region. The Indian quest for a Ballistic Missile Defense shield (BMD) is an exemplar of Indian military modernization to achieve such belligerent ambitions. This BMD is a bicameral offensive system consisting of Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) and the Advanced Air Defense (AAD). This system, when operational would provide both high and low altitude protection against incoming ballistic missiles and warheads while also giving India the option to engage aircraft and cruise missiles as well. Nevertheless, this BMD system does give India a fraudulent sense of security. Similarly, the acquisition of Indo-Israeli Barak missile system and Akash missile system is set to be a part of this multi-tiered mechanism.
The religious-cum-fundamentalist government of India has an edge insofar as these recent developments are concerned. For instance, this military modernization will embolden India to either go for a first strike or opt for executing a nuclear strike against Pakistan. It is so because India has an offensive sea-based capability, Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and canister-based missiles (Agni V). Moreover, India is moving away from its No First Use Policy (NFU) and Massive retaliation as is evident from the development and deployment of Prahaar Short Range Ballistic Missiles.
India, a mythical ally of the US and Russia is tumbling head-over-heels to take advantage of its foreign policy through signing defence and nuclear deals with the major powers. Recently, the 19th India-Russia bilateral summit resulted in the finalization of major Russian S-400 Triumph missile systems deal between Russia and India. The system is able to create a defence layer by firing three types of missiles. This air defense system encompasses a multi-functional radar system, command and control systems in addition to specific launchers and independent detection-cum-targeting systems. At one time, this system can engage up to approx. 36 targets. This system is also capable of engaging a wide range of airborne targets including cruise and ballistic missiles within 400 km range and up to 30 km altitude.
The S-400 deal has acted as a tug of war between Russia and the US as the later has threatened to impose Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions on India. It is interesting to note that when it comes to strategic arms trade, India chooses Russia over the US. Though the US has already exempted Vietnam and Singapore from these sanctions and it remains to be seen whether the US would extend this consideration to India or not. If one were to predict the US response considering its preferential treatment of India, the US may still allow India to go ahead with the deal as India is its major strategic partner. Nevertheless, if the US allows India to have such deal, than the US leaves no moral room to discriminately pressurize Turkey to halt the S-400 delivery from Russia to Turkey which are likely due in 2019. This discrimination will again show the subjective nature of US sanctions used as a tool to isolate some states and not others.
In South Asia, the Indian acquisition of S-400 has resulted in shift of ‘Balance of Air Power’ in its favor. Due to the geographical proximity between India and Pakistan, the S-400 system will increase the vulnerability of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) along the-Pak-Indian border. For instance, if a major war breaks out between India and Pakistan, India will be at a position to create a troubling no-fly zone within Pakistan’s territory, hence, affecting the retaliatory capability of the PAF. This will affect the Balance of Power (BoP) in the region.
According to former DG of the Corp of Army Air Defense of the Indian Army, Lt Gen (Dr) V.K Sexina, the operationalization of the Indian BMD system will take approximately 2-3 years. Also, the operationalization of S-400 system is at least 8 years away. However, the success rate of Akash missile tests is very low. Complications involved with the associated capabilities and infrastructures also make it difficult for India to operationalize its BMD system in such a short time. Nevertheless, mere possession of the very capability would be a threat for Pakistan.
To counter this pre-ordering threat, Pakistan needs to give a restrained yet affective response. Two years are crucial to fill the gap vis-à-vis the Indian BMD system and 7 to 8 years to counter the operationalization of S-400. Pakistan can take a number of steps to counter Indian air defence modernization. The PAF has already set on a plan for near and long term force modernization objectives considering the Indian developments in the region. However, the PAF and Pakistan Army Corp of Air Defence need quick up gradation and induction of newer detection and interception capabilities. In the air domain, Pakistan needs to prioritize and fast-track the acquisition of low-observable (i.e. stealth) combat aircraft, longer-range anti-radiation air-to-surface missiles and sub-munitions capable Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM) etc. Furthermore, such Indian long range targeting capabilities might prompt preemption or lowering of the nuclear threshold, hence destabilizing strategic stability in the region. In the strategic sphere, MIRVs along with the Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle (MARVs) would ensure a higher survivability rate for Pakistan against a multi-tiered BMD that India is developing. Pakistan’s Ra’ad ALCM and MIRV capable Ababeel missile can be used to stress India’s air defence system. Given the close proximity of the two nuclear adversaries, a complete shield is technically impossible to achieve, though such capabilities would ensue a false aura of security.
Besides stressing India’s air defence system, Pakistan also needs capability to withstand Indian conventional response as well. In the future, Pakistan may need to acquire its own long-range SAM network. The current balance of conventional weaponry tilts heavily in India’s favor, and the most cost effective mean might be to approach China for longer range systems such as the HQ-16/19. Though it would require a complete overhaul of the air defense network which is still dependent on radars of the US origin.
Considering the long range of the S-400 system, if it is placed in the coastal areas of India, it can also be a threat to the Extra Regional Forces in the Indian Ocean Region. Considering India’s noxious approach towards modernization, it is high time that the international community must checkmate such Indian ambitions as they threaten not only regional peace and security but also global stability.