The SCO has the potential to become the vehicle on which the Sino-Russia Combine eventually challenges the geopolitical status quo. It is therefore imperative that it now acquires a more dynamic purpose than hithertofore. It must become an authoritative, assertive, persuasive geopolitical force and project power and influence in the region and beyond. It must define its own sphere of influence and secure it. It should express itself as the formidable centre of power that it is and emerges as the security provider of choice in the larger Eurasian context. It could start radiating tangible authority at the regional-global levels by adopting collective, unified positions on vital international issues. It should become the leader of the global South and usher in a modicum of balance in geopolitical matters. It must counter the aggressive and arrogant projection of power by the US-led West in the Middle East, and East Europe and if possible, pre-empt it in the Indo-Pacific. The SCO therefore, must become an alliance, a positive force, that brings about and maintains strategic balance at the regional-global levels, redefining geopolitical imperatives in the process. Time is nigh that it expands exponentially to include amongst others Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Egypt, KSA, UAE, and other members of the GCC, ASEAN, etc. It must emerge as the most viable alternative to the current centres of power!
The SCO must also make deliberate efforts to evolve at the geoeconomic level. The BRI should specifically aim to create interconnectivity and economic interdependence within it. The objectives of the SCO and the BRI therefore must converge to realize this geoeconomic dynamic. This will create a favourable and conducive environment for Free Trade Agreements bilaterally as well as at the organizational level. This ought to culminate in an Economic Union that binds the member states into a well-knit, well-connected, interdependent, mutually supporting, self-sufficient, powerful, economic consortium. Its combined GDP is about 25 % of the world’s nominal GDP and must increase exponentially. Engaging Afghanistan is therefore critical. A willing and participating Afghanistan could help unblock the region. This could lead to numerous East-West and North-South trade corridors criss-crossing the region transporting goods, minerals, raw materials, oil and gas pipelines and much more. Special industrial and economic zones could flourish in the Mekran Coast hinterland. Crucially, landlocked Afghanistan and CARs could get access to Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea. First-class infrastructure courtesy of the BRI-CPEC already exists. Afghanistan must become a productive, responsible member of the regional and international communities. This evolving, harmonious environment and common interests could lead to other more dynamic, even collective, kinetic objectives later on as well!
The SCO needs to develop a military dimension to become a more assertive, credible, and major player in the geopolitical arena. Therefore, it is inevitable that it expands and transforms itself into a formal, potent military alliance with a global strategic reach too. China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan could form the nucleus of this military-nuclear-missile alliance. Turkey and KSA should be encouraged to join. It could emerge as CRIPTS - and initially function as a subset of the SCO. Later it could expand to include all members, though India would remain a possible fence-sitter! The military capacities and capabilities of all its members will need to be developed and enhanced suitably. Ideally, no member of the SCO ought to face existential threats or hostile alliances and/or coalitions in isolation. Can the Sino-Russia Combine or the SCO deter a repeat of the Ukraine war in the Indo-Pacific? Can it forestall the application of the US’ Strategy of Offshore Balancing in this theatre of war? Will threatening to raise the stakes actually deter war?
Furthermore, the SCO must operationalize the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) that endeavours to mitigate the three evils - terrorism, separatism, and religious extremism. Afghanistan, the ostensible Terrorism Central of the region and the world, is therefore key. It needs to be engaged, incorporated into the SCO, and then helped to eliminate the scourge of terrorism that breeds within its borders and threatens itself, Pakistan, the BRI-CPEC projects, Chinese personnel working on these projects, and potentially the whole region. Afghanistan might be amenable to Chinese counsel on this subject. A unified policy to that end is sorely needed.
India however, will always threaten to be the Trojan Horse in the organisation. Its ill-famed, utopian concept of strategic autonomy will not allow it to run with the hare and hunt with the hound, endlessly. At some point in time, it will have to pick sides. It can either side with the SCO or lean towards the US-led West or remain neutral, uncommitted. Either way, it will find itself floundering about lonely and dangerously in strategic vacuity. In the current geopolitical scenario, all three options will be to its abiding detriment. The SCO and even the BRICS, need to beware!
The SCO shows tremendous geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic promise. It must position itself well to meet the challenges of the evolving world order. It, therefore, must operationalize and actualize its true potential to emerge as the natural security provider and leader of Eurasia and the global South. To that end, it must emerge as a unified economic powerhouse held firmly together by a formal, binding, potent military alliance. That will form the basis for it to project geopolitical influence and power in the region and beyond. It is therefore imperative that it becomes more ambitious, assertive, and dynamic and emerges as the inexorable counterpoise, the alternate pole, to the US-led West. Bringing balance, stability, and sanity to the geopolitical milieu is the critical need of the hour. Given the necessary (geo)political will, the SCO can bring it forth!
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.