KARACHI - The oil share in the electricity generation could reach 48 per cent by FY13, once rental and independent power plants start producing oil based electricity, according to a research analyst. Pakistan which was until FY08 relying mostly on gas for electricity generation, now rely more on oil. During FY09, Pakistan produced 35 per cent of electricity through oil followed by 32 per cent gas and 30 per cent hydel while rest was contributed by nuclear and coal. Farhan Mahmood, Reserah Analyst Topline Securities in its report while citing some documents, found that the growing gas shortage in the country is a major reason behind this shift. In his report he said that 5 years back, oil contribution was only 16 per cent whereas gas share was 49 per cent. This growing reliance on expensive oil power generation is a concern for future economic stability, especially when the country is under the IMF program. Owing to rising gap between demand and supply, gas supply to power plants declined annually by 4 per cent during last 5-years. Besides this, phenomenal increase in CNG consumption (41pc CAGR) during this period also restricted gas supplies to power sector. On the other hand, hydel-power generation remained restrictive through last few years since it is dependent on water needs by agricultural sector. He disclosed that Pakistans oil share in energy one of the highest in region. Countrys primary energy supplies remained almost flat at 62.5mn tons of oil equivalent (toe) in FY09. Out of total supplies which include gas, oil, LPG, coal, hydro-and nuclear electricity, indigenous production contributed 66 per cent in FY09. Five years back it was 71 per cent. This is mainly due to 1) higher furnace oil imports for thermal power generation and 2) rising gas shortage. Despite growing gas shortage in the country, gas remains the main stay of Pakistans energy consumption with 51 per cent share followed by oil 36 per cent while the rest is shared by hydro & nuclear electricity and coal. This is net of transmission & distribution losses, auxiliary consumption and exports. Moreover, on regional perspective, Pakistans energy mix is not ideal as it still has highest share of oil in overall energy consumption after Indonesia and Thailand. He was of the view that this stance holds more opportunity for E&P firms and OMCs as with growing oil and gas shortage in the country, there is ample opportunity for E&P firms (OGDC, PPL, POL) in Pakistan. Though in recent years we saw additional gas volumes from Tajjal (25mmcfd), Latif (25mmcfd), Manzalai (250mmcfd), however, we might see gas shortages in short-term which could also result in CNG shortage in the country. In this scenario, upcoming power plants would increase countrys reliance on imported furnace oil.