The disqualification of PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif from the membership of the National Assembly has taken the whole nation aback, and apart from the usual protests, has also provoked walkouts by part of the Treasury (the PML-N part) from the National and Punjab Assemblies, the first walkouts of these Houses. Many see this disqualification, when the by-elections in which Nawaz is a candidate for a national Lahore seat, as a sign of presidential interference, and a sign that Nawaz is no longer wanted in Pakistan's politics now that he has taken part in the February general elections, especially since he has been applying pressure for Pervez Musharraf to step down as president, no matter what the provisions for the president in the constitutional package that the PPP wants to bring. The PPP federal government has committed to taking up the case in the final court of appeal, the Supreme Court, because Nawaz has so far refused to appear before any court which contains judges who have taken oath under the PCO, thus converting his stand into one for judicial independence. The first issue to be examined is what does Nawaz want by entering the National Assembly. Obviously, he cannot hope to be made the prime minister, because while membership of the National Assembly is essential for that office, Nawaz has no hope of winning PPP support. Further, the ban on the holding of the prime ministership or chief ministership twice remains. This was one of the reformist-minded changes to the constitution locked in place under the Seventeenth Amendment which Musharraf holds dear, and which he will not sacrifice. So Nawaz was going to the assembly without any ambition, and solely to lead the PML-N parliamentary party, which was already showing some signs of confusion, most notably over the Finance Bill this session, particularly the clause increasing the strength of the Supreme Court to accommodate the PCO judges. However, it should be noted that Nawaz may not be affected except possibly in the future, but younger brother Shahbaz is affected in what he presently enjoys, the Punjab chief ministry. There have been a number of rumours that Shahbaz, by virtue of a later election from Rawalpindi, no longer has the seat from Bhakkar by virtue of which he is a member of the House and thus chief minister. They have reached the extent that Shahbaz has seen the need for the support of a ruling from the Punjab Assembly Chair in his support. Though the federal government has pledged to defend Mian Nawaz before the Supreme Court, it has left to the Election Commission of Pakistan a decision on whether Shahbaz has the office he holds or not. However, the recent decision has not been as much about Nawaz, as about Shahbaz's chief ministry, which will go if the decision is made to stick. Meanwhile, the presidency has been a silent spectator of these nation-shaking events. This is not because the president has decided to play the role of a ceremonial figurehead who does not interfere in such events for fear that they may obtain a party colouring. It is because the president is watching the politicians unfold their drama, to the point where he may wrap up all the proceedings, and hold fresh elections in which, this time, the PML-Q will have a free hand, and be appropriately backed by officials and official agencies, and thus be allowed to obtain results which will give the president the option of whom to make the prime minister, unlike the present unfortunate compromise. The president will be able to tell his foreign interlocutors, particularly his critics that undiluted democracy does not work well in Pakistan and only a faade is required, which the PML-Q will provide. Otherwise, the president will say, the War On Terror will not go well. Since the foreign interlocutors do not care as much about democracy in Pakistan as much as they do about the War On Terror, they will not object to this reasoning, but will probably make him hurry. Meanwhile, the president will make sure that it is understood by the Sharifs that they will be let into parliament only if they accept those judges who will not interfere with the work of the executive, and if they do not, there are all these old cases, which will be heard by the judiciary as it presently exists, and the Sharif brothers are not protected by any NRO, as Asif Zardari is. Indeed the NRO is a very powerful tool. Because Zardari thinks the old judiciary would abolish it, he has chosen to delay on the judges' issue. While this is purely for a personal reason, it has the consequence of avoiding any embarrassment to the president, which would be caused by the return of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry to the Chief Justiceship of Pakistan. Because of this delay, there has been a delay in the PPP's constitutional package, which is now supposed to be the means of restoring the judges. The PML-N might claim that there is an agreement on a parliamentary resolution to be followed by an executive order, but the PPP has a different view, the view that counts. Anyway, the PPP is sitting pretty. With not even a third of the total membership of the National Assembly, it has got enough support to enjoy the federal government, including all of the cabinet slots, and will keep that support, because it is committed to keeping the PPP government going. Nawaz has to be taught that any seat he might get is not just because of the votes of the electorate, but because of the personal munificence of the president, and he is not to interfere in the judiciary as it stands or encourages it to interfere in the work of the executive. Shahbaz is seen as a threat so long as he is chief minister, and his removal is seen as a positive lesson for the PPP, which will possibly inherit that chief ministry as well. It is another matter whether it rules well enough to be re-elected, but since the next dissolution will come from elsewhere, so what? The PPP has decided on power politics. E-mail: maniazi@nation.com.pk