LAHORE Political uncertainty continued to keep the bourse bearish due to institutional profit-taking ahead of SBP policy announcement next week. The KSE 100-index closed down 2.4 per cent WoW to 11,648 level, with average daily volumes dipping 17 per cent. Foreigners too remained net sellers of $3.8 million. Experts said that lacklustre activity was witnessed at the local bourse amid the uncertainty surrounding the Pakistan Ambassador to the US and expectations of status quo in the upcoming monetary policy on Nov 30th. Moreover, IMF released its economic review of Pakistan highlighting macroeconomic challenges owing to energy crisis and pressures on the external account. The current account numbers were released during the week in which deficit widened to $1.55b in 4MFY12 compared to $0.54b in the same period last year. Major reason behind the deficit was the bulging oil import bill up by 54 percent YoY due to rise in international oil prices. An expert Naveed Tehsin stated that the IMF has shown concerns over macro economic indicators and sees a 'challenging outlook for Pakistan due to pressures on the fiscal side, debt servicing and energy crisis. Moreover, the IMF has projected Pakistans real GDP growth at 3.5 percent in FY12 against 4.2 percent projected in the budget. Furthermore, the GoP has raised the wheat support price to Rs1,050 per 40kg from Rs950 previously. It is expected to bode well for the fertilizer offtake in the ongoing Rabi season and may result in enhanced auto sales due to expected rise in farmers income. The fertilizer offtake during 10M2011 stood at 6.7 million tons, up 2 percent YoY. However, in October total fertilizer offtake declined by 15 percent YoY while rising by 3 percent MoM. Samar Iqbal, an equity dealer, pointed out fall in global equity markets and local political issues kept investors on the sidelines. As the pulling out of money from global equity markets in the latest turmoil poses a threat to outflow from local bourse too. Profit taking was seen in heavy weight OGDC contributed 34 points in index decline. Ahsan Mehanti, Director of the Arif Habib Investments said that bearish activity witnessed in stocks across the board on institutional profit-taking ahead of SBP policy announcement next week. Major fall in global stocks and commodities on concerns for US economic growth and Europe debt crises affected the investor sentiment. He said that foreign investors continued limited offloading in blue chip stocks at the local bourses. Trade remained thin despite OGRA announcements for raise in local gas tariff easing concerns for rising circular debt in the country, he added. On the last working day, the KSE-100 rallied to close up 95 points amidst expanding market participation. Daily turnover clocked in at 41.341 million shares - up 61 percent from the previous close. Current move is likely to see further upsurge till 11,900. Increase exposure in select stocks. Experts remained sellers in FFC and recommend sell on strength for FFC. Their recommended price was 180 with a stop loss at 184.75. ENGRO and LUCK still look good, with a stronger bias towards ENGRO in the short term, they added. Increase exposure in ENGRO on close above 132 and in LUCK at 81.50. They said that their sell call in FFBL continued with a covering price of 50. According to Raheel Ashraf, an expert, the KSE-100 index witnessed an upward adjustment to its recent decline and closed at 11,729 level, up 95 points on Wednesday. Volumes improved to 51 million shares from 34 million shares traded previously. Though, the index closed in the green, it registered a lower high and lower low, indicating a bearish view. However, a short term recovery towards the 30-DMA at 11,822 level was expected, he added. The MACD continued to decline, while the RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have taken an upward turn supporting the above view. Based on DGKCs impressive 1QFY12 results and sustainability in high cement prices, experts have raised FY12E-14F earnings estimates by 54-12 percent. In 1QFY12, DGKC reported a PAT of Rs318 million (EPS of Rs0.73) versus a PAT of Rs22 million (EPS of Rs0.05) depicting a 14x growth compared to the same period last year. The growth was driven by 37 percent YoY increase in retention prices along with meager improvement in cement volumes (5 percent YoY). However, due to the decline in the companys portfolio value, our target price has been revised by only 5 percent. DGKCs net revenues surged by 44 percent YoY to Rs5.1bn on the back of 5 percent YoY increase in cement volumes and 37 percentYoY rise in net retention prices. Analysts observed that National Bank of Pakistans (NBP) dismal performance at the local bourse can be linked to its 9M2011 profitability which remained flat at Rs11.4bn (EPS Rs6.78). Provisions remained at the forefront in 9M clocking in at Rs7.2bn (up 8 percentYoY). 3Q result remained below street consensus on account contracting NIMs (down 64bps YoY) and declining non markup income. PAT was down 14 percentQoQ in 3Q at Rs3.3bn (EPS Rs1.97).