Clouds of a nuclear war finally hovers over Europe. At least, the exchange of missiles between Russia and Ukraine speaks so. On 21 November, Russia fired an intermediate-range supersonic inter-continental ballistic missile, named Oreshnik (meaning the hazel), capable of carrying nuclear payload to around five thousand kilometers. The missile targeted an industrial area near the city of Dnipro, which is Ukraine’s fourth largest city located in the east on the Dnipro River.
The missile, which saw daylight first time, was laden with no explosives, causing little damage. Afterward, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on the Tv to announce that it was an experiment – a “test launch” deployed in a “non-nuclear hypersonic configuration” – and that more such experiments of missile testing would be carried out in the future. Addressing the nation at the Kremlin in Moscow, Putin also said that the countries providing missiles to Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target of such missiles.
Reportedly, this genre of missile is capable of carrying three to six nuclear warheads, making it a deadly weapon. Further, the missile is exceptionally challenging to intercept, rendering any prevalent missile defence shield irrelevant. This is a point of worry for the countries backing Ukraine and sponsoring war against Russia. More than that, this is a point of concern for Ukraine, whether or not to continue with the war.
In a way, the outgoing President of the United States (US) Joe Biden has become able to irk the Russian President into thinking of retaliation beyond Ukraine. In this effort, the United Kingdom (UK) faithfully sided with the US. Both countries provided Ukraine with missiles which could reach well inside Russian territory to ruin its stability. For many, this could be an opening scene of the next World War having the potential of engulfing Europe. However, for others, this could be a strategy of the US – to escalate war before fizzling it out – as it did in the case of withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan in 2021.
Reason could be any, but one thing is sure: Europe had not imagined the prospects of a war which could turn into a nuclear confrontation. Presently, the US holds military bases in several countries of Europe as vestiges of the victory which closed the Second World War. Interestingly, at that time, the former Soviet Union (of which Russia is the reduced form) was part of the Allied forces fighting against the Axis of Power made by Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan. Former allies are now frantic adversaries. Russia hates its former member states of Eastern Europe assembling under the banner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia is adamant to refuse the NATO any opportunity to abut its borders. The NATO offers the hard face of Europe but with the component of the US, which is a member of the NATO. Russia abhors the presence of any organization having the US component touching its borders. Otherwise, Russia likes the soft face of Europe expressed through the European Union (EU) sans any presence of the US. With the EU, Russia is on good terms to sell oil and gas to earn foreign exchange. Hence, the response of Russia to the NATO is different from its response to the EU. The presence of the US as a member of the NATO heralds the difference.
During the Cold War (1946-1991), the US installed both nuclear and non-nuclear missiles at several locations of Europe including many highlands of the UK. These installations were meant for repulsing any threat of the expansion of Communism, an ideology which had riveted several developing countries of the world, including East European countries, which fell finally into the lap of communism. Though the threat of communist expansion ended in December 1991, when the former Soviet Union signed an agreement of ending the Cold War officially, the US maintained its military presence and nuclear stations intact from Scotland (UK) to Berlin (Germany). The mere presence kept on costing the US exchequer millions of dollars a year. During his previous tenure (January 2017- January 2021) as President of the US, Donald Trump made efforts to reduce foreign expenditure of the US including the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and asking Europe to contribute more to the expenditures incurred by the NATO. However, Europe showed no deep interest in funneling funds into the NATO.
Before Europe could rethink about the desire of the US to spare more funds for the NATO, the outgoing US President Biden sent missiles to Ukraine to snub Russia, overlooking the fact that the opponent was not the Afghan Taliban having no indigenous resources to sustain a war. Russia has its own weapon-manufacturing industry ever ready to test new versions of arsenals. Further, compared to the past, this time Russia is supported by China, which is now an emerging economic giant, expanding its physical presence through its rail and road network. Though the prime objective of China is trade, China does not dither in its support extended to Russia. Nevertheless, in return for military technology and oil, North Korea is already providing Russia with ten thousand soldiers, based in Russian border region of Kursk, to be integrated into Russian formations.
It was February 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine to curb the rising tide of pro-Russian armed separatists. This happened in the tenure of Biden (January 2021- January 2025), who is now at the fag end of his presidency. Recently, he gave a nod to Ukraine to fire a US-made Atacms missile which destroyed a weapons’ depot in Russia’s south-western Bryansk region. Ukraine also fired a salvo of UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia. Ukraine did so because it apprehended that the second arrival of Trump in January 2025 would end the war; however, this urgency turns out to be counterproductive. Missiles supplied by the US and the UK lowered the threshold of war, and invited the Oreshnik assertion.
Dr. Tehmina Aslam Ranjha
The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at taranjha1@gmail.com