IMF forecasts blow past govt targets

ISLAMABAD - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report titled 'Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Asia has forecast that fiscal deficit is expected at 5.3 per cent of GDP during the year 2012, which would be far above than the government target of four per cent for the ongoing financial year 2011-2012. The government had estimated that the fiscal deficit would remain at four per cent of the GDP during the ongoing financial year. However, the IMF in its latest report projected that fiscal deficit remained at 6.5 per cent in the ongoing year 2011 and would remain at 5.3 per cent in the upcoming year 2012. According to the IMF report, Pakistans GDP growth rate is projected at 2.6 per cent for the year 2011 and 3.8 per cent during the year 2012. It might be mentioned here that the government has forecast 4.2 per cent GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal year 2011-2012. Meanwhile, according to the report, the inflation would remain on the higher side, as it is projected at around 14 per cent during the year 2012. The inflation rate for the year 2011 was 13.9 per cent in the year 2011. Similarly, the Current Account Balance of Pakistan in 2011 is projected at 0.2 per cent of the GDP and at -1.7 per cent of the GDP in the year 2012. Meanwhile, the report revealed that the total government gross debt is projected at 57.6 per cent of the GDP in the year 2011 and 57.3 per cent in the year 2012. While, the total government net debt is forecast at 53.5 per cent of the GDP in 2011 and 55 per cent in the year 2012. Similarly, the gross official reserves are estimated to go down at $15.1 billion in 2012 from $16.3 billion from the year 2011. Meanwhile, the imports estimated at around $46 billion, while the exports trailing behind at an estimated $30 billion during 2011-12, the report further said. The IMF has further said that Pakistans economy was not only hit by the floods, but also by the recent violence that perpetrated in the cities. The IMF released economic outlook said that the losses incurred due to flight of capital was somewhat eased out by the overseas Pakistanis enhanced remittances and the increase in exports. Agencies add: The fund cited the devastating floods of 2011 and violence in the commercial hub, Karachi, for slow economic growth. In 2008, Pakistan and IMF agreed on a 3-year loan package worth $11 billion. The programme was halted in 2010 because of slow implementation of fiscal reforms, and only $8 billion had so far been disbursed. The programme ended on Sept 30 and Pakistan opted not to seek a new loan or an extension.

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