“Wars are poor chisels for carving
out peaceful tomorrows.”
–Martin Luther King, Jr.
Recent developments between Pakistan and India have, without a doubt, generated uncertainty and contemplation among both the populations. News anchors and armchair combatants make it seem like an all out war is on the cards, while those who are able to understand the bigger political picture, are confidently writing off any likelihood of a serious military conflict.
Most of us remember the Kargil Conflict of 1999 as a regrettable series of events. Memories of Kargil might assist someone in thinking that a military offensive is possible; but we need to understand that the times have changed. During Kargil, there was friction between the Pakistani army and civil-leadership. While the government was contemplating peace initiatives, the army had another plan. Today, through numerous statements that have started to become redundant, we know that the army and the civil-leadership are ‘on the same page.’
Such statements might sound vague, but some conclusions can still be derived from it. The military will not bypass the government and initiate an attack on its own, and the civil-leadership, as we already know, prefers diplomacy over war. Unless India launches a military attack, which is also highly unlikely given the delicate nature of the South Asian region, an all out war seems like an implausible affair.
