The signing ceremony in Shanghai in May 2014 for the $400 billion natural gas supply deal left no secret about the presence of some kind of an understanding between the two super powers: Russia and China.
The settlement of border issues between them is a further development. Their mutual support to each other on Taiwan and Ukraine issues is an eye-opener for those who think of containing China or who allow rude marching demonstration at borders between an Eastern European country and Ukraine.
In presence of two strong leaders, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the United States (US) foreign policy which was already suffering from a state of inertia has almost deteriorated to a state of paralysis as it is confirmed from John Kerry’s visit to Moscow on December 15, 2015 to plead and ask for a ceasefire in Syria.
Although offer for ceasefire was made to stop blood-bath of rebel forces and IS (Islamic State) trained terrorists fighting against Bashar-al-Assad of Syria, yet the recently allied group of 34 countries under the shadow of the US as the word in press goesat this crucial moment, would compel Vladimir Putin to ponder deeply about the ceasefire offer and its implications for the future.
Furthermore, after gaining series of success in Aleppo, Marj al Sultan and Latakia with strong support from Russia, Iranian military experts and Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, why would President Assad go for any peace attempt when he is so close to defeating the opposition which has brought total war turmoil and chaos to his country? Who would like to loose on the negotiating table which one has won in the battle-field?
The war has divided the world into two camps. The camp belonging to Russia and China has its allies in the form of Democratic People Republic of Korea (DPRK)(which has tested a Hydrogen Bomb Blast last week), Iran, Iraq and Syria which the US hasbeen addressing as rogue states. They would like to impress upon Putin to go for maximum gain in terms of their freedom, security, prosperity and influence in the comity of nations as the US Special Envoy, Staffan Mistura, has been advised to chalk out a ceasefire plan.
Ceasefire plan, without neutralising the troublemakers, would be ineffective. Similarly any one ceasefire formula applicable to the whole of Syria will be a futile exercise because of the poles-apart situation in areas controlled by Bashar-al-Assad and, rebels and ISIS, irreconcilable from point of view of Western interests.
The question which one would like to ask is, “How far Russian Putin and Chinese Xi Jinping would be able to corner American Obama?”Until now, Russia has blocked all efforts. Who would agree to remove Bashar-al-Assad? Does this situation foretell another ferocious war such as a Nuclear, not yet experienced by humanityat large?
China has been hand in hand with Russia to nullify Security Council resolution on Ukraine as the natives were completely left at the mercy of Russiaby the Western Powers. Just one day after John Kerry’s visit to Moscow, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) justified Russia in its claim of $ 3 billion. Goodness Gracious, Justice done! So quickly!
Russia can use Syria as a base to move forward towards MENA (Middle East-Northern Africa) from where SS-18 and fast cruise missiles as Topalcan create unimaginable havoc. The treatment meted-out to Turkey after the shooting down of two Russian S-24 passenger airplanes is sufficient to understand that Putin means what he says.
With Russian readiness of war goes Chinese’s straightforward “No” to John Kerry about building islands over Spratly reefs. China is dominant in South-East Sea despite the US bases in Republic of Korea, Philippines, Japan and Taiwan. And yet Chinese trade is going strong. New trade avenues are opening up. Military budget has also been raised recently and considerably. As per heresy, the big powers are engaged in militarization mainly in and around Asia, both on land and sea waters.
While the US economy is dwindling through difficult times; to be exact, there is no US foreign policy. The US sanctions against countries like Russia or Iran have proved ineffective. That is why more nations have started looking toward East.
The tense situation is a clarion call for the US to wake up before it is too late. Moreover, neither would Russia like to invite trouble which tomorrow could be harmful to its interests nor the US want to disengage itself from the Middle East at a time when Russia has placed its nuclear submarines to hit Turkish targets if Turkey tries to escalate war on NATO (read US) provocation.
Under the circumstances, if the US administration, tempted by the lame theories of “Blue Team,” tries to shift war venue again towards tough terrain of Afghanistan or towards South-East China Sea, it would be like falling from saucepan into fire.
The US has run woefully short of options. It appears that the only tactical recourse for the US is to invoke Monroe Doctrine in letter and spirit.