The US National Intelligence Council's report, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World has created the same interest as it used to, with its quadrennial reports designed to coincide with the beginning of the new presidential term. The NIC is very much a US government body, and it reports to the head of the CIA, and was founded in 1979. Its origins are in organisations that existed to present intelligence estimates. Since it acts as an apex body, it is paid a lot of attention, as representing the thinking of 'official' Washington. The latest report contains one new dimension. It sees conflicts developing over resources. It naturally postulates a shortage of those resources coming first, though it does see that shortage as the result of population growth and the developing of new economies. But perhaps more importantly, it sees the future as a transition to a multipolar world, and a reduction of American dominance. Among the future poles, it sees India as an emerging power, along with China and Russia. In further bad news for future American governments, it also predicts the growing effects of global warming manifesting themselves in growing food shortages. This throws two challenges to Pakistani planners. First, are they to adopt this view, or present an alternative? In the unlikely event of there being any alternative, it will be within government, for the resources for such an exercise are probably not available here, nor is the government used to conducting its business in the glare of publicity. Second, if they adopt this view, do they engage in their own policy review? If the USA is not going to remain the dominant sole superpower that it has been ever since the disintegration of the USSR, will it be as profitable for Pakistan to attach itself as vigorously to the American camp as it has done at present? It is not just diplomatic circles that must consider this question, but the military, which has always obtained support from the USA for its periodic take overs. This is relevant as far as the report expects terrorism to remain in this region, though in a different form, but expects Pakistan to remain a hub of terrorist activity. Pakistan is identified as one of the Muslim states where the radical Salafi trends of Islam are likely to be most strengthened, because they struggle the most with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings, and terrorism is supposed to emerge the most from this background. Here Pakistan is lumped with Afghanistan, Yemen and Nigeria. Of crucial importance to Pakistan is the development of China. If it is envisaged by the USA as one of the future poles of the world system, this will not be a wish fulfilled. That is why it has India as another pole, to act as a counterweight. But while India is postulated to continue to enjoy the kind of economic growth it has at present, it is also expected that the rich-poor gap will grow, and pose a political challenge. Actually, this is more likely that the iron barrier of caste is here causing a problem. India may have emerged on the world scene as a modern nation, but it has been riven by caste since much earlier, and one of the principal lessons of all religions, except Hinduism which is based upon caste-ism, has been the essential equality of all human beings. However, apart from Islam, other religions, whether foreign such as Christianity, or indigenous such as Sikhism, have accepted the barriers of caste. That was at the root of the Indian elite's rejection of Islam which led to the creation of Pakistan. One consequence was that India then developed as a caste society. Though the Indian elite has presented itself as Westernised, the caste nature of society has emerged despite this thin veneer. And since one aspect of a caste society is the economic suppression of the lower castes, this is showing itself in a growing rich-poor gap. India, if it achieves the ancient Nehruvian ambition of becoming a world power, will move to the spreading of caste-ism in the guise of spreading Hindu culture, and that spread will work against whatever the world stands for. Thus, the USA may look forward to India becoming a world power because it will act as a line of defence against China, also set to become a world power, but India will probably use the chance to promote its caste system under the guise of promoting Indian culture. Apparently, there are two major objections to this, first the Veda-bound nature of the caste system, and then the fact that the existing system for converts to Hinduism makes them Sudras. However, Hinduism has a long history of overcoming these objections, such as the Arya Samaj movement of the 19th century, which to the extent of the Punjab tried to reform Hinduism and end caste-ism, as well as similar movements in Bengal. However, no movement made much progress in the Hindu heartland of UP, where the BJP has its strongholds. Now caste Hindus have been getting to the USA, and are making progress on the Obama transition team. It is noteworthy that Obama has not yet picked any Americans of Chinese origin, even though he picked a Hindu woman with VHP connections. Clearly, though the report does not say so, the USA has decided that India will be a friend in this period, and China an enemy. The prediction is for a return to conflicts, as a multipolar world is essentially a more dangerous place. There is one further prediction, that a transition to a non-oil-based energy economy is possible, though not certain. That is a crucial prediction for Pakistan, which the report does not predict will disintegrate, but which will probably be one of the states facing difficulties because of the negative effects on agriculture, which is one of the consequences of global warming, and which will be more and more visible as the century goes on. The report should normally not affect Pakistan, but this time Pakistan is watching all the signals it can find. Perhaps its main achievement for the century would be survival in a dangerous neighbourhood. E-mail: maniazi@nation.com.pk