Changing dynamics

A new uncharted journey begins long before Obama takes oath and enters the White House. The complexity of the situation has increased manifold in the present context in view of new US administration confronting challenges on multiple fronts. Although there is great euphoria with Obama's victory but his first six months would be testing time not only for his future but also for the future of the American empire which is already receding. The dynamics of US-Russia relations has started changing in the wake of August war fought in Georgia and the consequent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia. Russia has sent a strong message to the US that it is back with a bang and the future Moscow-Washington relationship will be based on the respect for mutual interests. Despite the age of Soviet empire is over, Russia is not ready to let the US encircle it at the expense of its strategic interests under the garb of NATO expansion. The US also wants to include the former USSR satellite states in NATO but Russia is resistant to any such move. The recent tensions in Ukraine shows to a large extent Russia's desire to prevent any change in the status of East European countries. Russia has not hesitated to challenge Crimea's status in Ukraine and show its intention to retain naval base in Sevastapol beyond 2017. The Bush Administration initiated to install missile defence plan in Europe with ten interceptor missiles stationed in Poland and a radar station in Czech Republic. The US tries to justify publicly the plan seeking security against the threats of 'rogue states'. Russia has dubbed these justifications frivolous and deemed this plan a threat to its security. In his recent state-of the-union address, the Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, has pledged to deploy Iskandar Missile system at Kaliningrad. Medvedev has in his assertive tone warned that Russia would electronically jam the US system in Poland and Czech Republic and that it would scrap plans to stand down three nuclear war head missiles. Medvedev has alleged the US to be responsible for provoking Georgia's war with the hidden purpose to send NATO fleets to the Black sea. Obama too has promised to go ahead with missile plan if it proves effective and cost efficient. The political pundits have opined that after the Russian warning it would no more be possible for the US president to back down on the programme. Thus there will be little likelihood of thaw in strained bilateral relations. Russia has rejected US proposals aimed at easing concerns regarding US missile plan and is also making efforts to control oil and gas supplies to Europe from the Caspian basin and Central Asia. Moscow is more concerned with increasing its political and economic influence in the crucial energy corridor connecting Baku, Azerbaijan's capital with Georgia and Turkey. Earlier this year Gazprom, the Russian gas giant informed Azerbaijan that it would pay higher European market prices for their gas. This offer strips away much of the economic rationale for the proposed US and EU backed Nabucco pipeline that, if built, would transport gas direct to Europe from the Caspian. After Russia's war in Georgia, Azerbaijan is reconsidering her westward stand and she is reviewing major foreign policy reversal. If it happens, most of the central Asian states would follow suit. Alarmed by paradigm shift in regional balance, the US Vice President Cheney dashed to Baku but could not achieve anything. Soon after his visit, the Azerbaijan President flew to Moscow for consultations. Many analysts are of the view that the US has lost 'the Caspian' and realised it latter. To deal with resurgent Russia in global politics is a Herculean task and requires skilful leadership. Obama must be ready to adapt to the changing circumstances and it demands change of attitude. America cannot continue with its muddle headed adventurist policies. Now it is time for the US to understand the 'downward spiral' of history and withdraw to its borders. Perhaps it is right to say: "If you want things to stay the same, things will have to change." If Obama insisted on more than necessary role of the US in International affairs, this attitude will beget nothing but bring more misfortune to the besieged America. The writer is an advocate E-mail: naumanasghar18@yahoo.com

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