If Modi wants a war, why don’t we oblige him, why do we keep blowing peace trumpets; let’s give it to him? He keeps asking for it every other day. To all appearances, statements emanating out of New Delhi, from political bigwigs and the Indian military generals seem to convey that intention. But does he really want it or is it yet another round of posturing for domestic consumption?

Foreign media has revealed that the Indian media is propagating the theme of a Pakistani sponsored terror attack inside India jointly planned by LeT and ISI. Some people have suggested that India may be contemplating a short and swift war against Pakistan, as is also being suggested by the statements of Indian army chief. This is a naive assessment for many reasons. India cannot want a war with Pakistan.

India has never shown an inclination for a fair war, nor has that been the case in its history. It has always preferred a below the belt approach keeping the option of critical blow in its hands. More importantly, Indian populace is not a war hungry lot, they are businessmen with hegemonic frame of mind. They won’t mind a free lunch but not at the cost of a pound of their own flesh. By tangling themselves in a war, they run too realistic a risk of delivering a mortal blow to their service-based economy. The Indian economy is so dependent upon the foreign investment that it cannot survive without a peace driven stability. That is how BJP and Modi have been trying to structure the Indian economy. War or even a threat of war could jeopardise that equation very quickly with long-term adverse consequences. That is something which would not be acceptable to Modi.

It would seem therefore that the drums of war being beaten by the Indians are farcical and only an act of bravado or self aggrandisement. Unfortunately, banking on this view can also be dangerous. The geo-strategic situation in South Asia, Central Asia, and in Middle East has changed and continues to twist in such a manner that India may actually be contemplating adventurism. Its new found alliance with the US, nuclear deals, billions of dollars worth fifth generation weaponry and a booming economy at home can propel the Indian leadership mind to dizzying heights.

Increasing violence along the line of control and near the Pakistan border is a clear and concerning marker of the deterioration of Indo-Pak relations. Failure of Ufa follow up meeting and likelihood of any substantive diplomatic progress between the two countries has become less and less likely. Conditions are becoming ripe for a crisis and any further Indian violence along the line of control will not only complicate the crisis management further but could also spin it out of control.

Indian intelligence agencies continue to interfere in Baluchistan to destabilise the province. Pakistani efforts to help Afghanistan and to improve the ties are being sabotaged by India with the assistance of Karzai. Raw has been involved in training terrorists to carry out attacks in Pakistan and has actively assisted them with funds and weapons. Indian consulates in Afghanistan have been directly involved in FATA and giving refuge and support to the terrorists.

It is worth mentioning here that India herself is not out of the woods. With more than twenty insurgencies raging within India, Modi should perhaps give consideration to living peacefully with the neighbours. But there are two problems. The first problem is that spending one’s prime ministerial tenure peacefully does not get one into any record books, nor does it help one to be remembered as an outstanding politician or statesman. Having achieved the status of a PM from a tea boy is not sufficient achievement for him. He wants far greater recognition at international level. He knows that he is no candidate for a Nobel Prize or a person of exceptional skills to influence international political events. The second and overriding problem is that Modi is a hard line RSS disciple and cannot take any steps without the prior approval of the RSS. In fact it should be remembered that in other than routine matters, India is run by RSS through BJP. Modi is accountable to RSS and not BJP. The hard fact is that BJP cannot survive without the RSS cadres which have the muscle, and have brought BJP to rule and Modi to the PM slot.

This situation makes life easy and perhaps pleasurable for Modi but difficult for those seeking peace in the sub-continent. Whereas there may exist leadership which wants to establish peaceful co-existence in the region, the RSS philosophy does not allow that. At the very least, RSS would keep forcing Modi to continue with policies and actions that are anti-Muslim, anti-Christian and clearly in line with Hindutva. Pakistani leadership and military cannot afford to slacken its guard against this open and insidious threat.