Pakistan has been, for years, urging India to agree to hold talks for addressing a number of issues hanging fire for a long time. These issues include Jammu and Kashmir dispute which from the Pakistani point of view has been the major hurdle in normalizing relations with India.
India, on the other hand, disregarding the blatant violation of human rights in the occupied state, has been accusing Pakistan of exporting terrorism to India. Mumbai killings and the recent incidents across the Line of Control are cited to assert that Pakistan must first demonstrate its resolve to punish those who were allegedly involved in planning and perpetrating the attack in Mumbai. Pakistan is demonised for deliberately dragging its feet to bring the culprits to book including Hafiz Saeed who is held as the mastermind behind the dastardly shootings. The killing of the five Indian soldiers allegedly by Pakistani military has been added to the heap of Indian grievances.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the last many years has repeatedly refused to visit Pakistan, turning down Pakistani invitations on the ground that Islamabad had failed to convince New Delhi that it is serious about stopping terrorist activities undertaken across the border, by non-state actors. It is interesting to recall that during Vajpai’s premiership, India took the initiative of inviting the then military dictator for talks in Agra, the same General who had started the Kargil adventure.
Vajpai’s successor, the mild-mannered Manmohan Singh, however, has behaved differently. Possible reasons for this somewhat contradictory conduct has been his comparatively weak leadership and the fact that after the strategic partnership agreements with USA and India’s enhanced economic and political clout, New Delhi has been deliberately indulging in putting pressure on a correspondingly weaker and increasingly vulnerable neighbor.
With Nawaz Sharif returning to power in Pakistan, hopes were raised for an early restarting of talks between the two countries. There was a flurry of contacts with special envoys meeting the Prime Minister’s reviving expectations of Mr. Manmohan Singh finally agreeing to come to Pakistan, or at least show willingness to take up the interrupted dialogue process between the two countries. The LOC incidents, however, were used by New Delhi to smother such a move. Nawaz has been more than clean about the need and the urgency of battering relations with India. In view, however, of India’s intransigence he too, had to, lower expectations.
Of late, efforts have remained focused on ensuring that the two Prime Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the September UN General Assembly sessions. In this connection, Pakistan’s advisor on security and foreign affairs has had meetings with the Indian foreign minister. It now appears certain that the two heads of government shall meet on Sunday, September 29.
Thursday last saw an attack on a police station and army post in Jammu in which 12 persons including an Indian Lieutenant Col, were killed. Somewhat surprisingly this time the reaction on the part of the Indian government and most of the media, has been positive in the sense that this incident is allowed to affect the scheduled talks between the Prime Ministers. Describing the attacks as “one more in a series of provocations and barbaric actions by the enemies of peace”, Manmohan Singh has made it clear that his government would not let “terrorists” disrupt the dialogue process with Pakistan. “Such attacks” he said “would not deter us and will not succeed in derailing our efforts to find a resolution to all problems through a process of dialogue”. One may also note that BJP leaders including Modi have called for holding off all talks with Pakistan until “a more conducive environment is guaranteed”.
A part of the editorial of the Indian Express (of September 26) merits to be reproduced to indicate the changing attitude in India: “A peaceful equilibrium with Pakistan has been one of Manmohan Singh's avowed priorities,….. Yet, if past experience is a guide, the UPA's will can dissolve dramatically in the face of a few belligerent opposition voices and angry TV anchors. Several times in the last year alone, the prime minister set aside his resolve after the opposition and parts of the media raised the pitch on Pakistan. In August, after an ambush on Indian soldiers at the Line of Control, the government did a miserable flip-flop on the nature of the aggression and who was responsible. In January, after another border incident, the government broke with the convention that the bilateral dialogue was kept separate from such events, with the prime minister himself saying that "business-as-usual" was untenable. Sports teams and business delegations were sent back to Pakistan. Led by the same jingoistic din, the UPA bequeathed a state funeral on Sarabjit Singh, even though he had been convicted of espionage and terrorism there. This time, the PM must not pander to the irresponsible chorus. He must be mindful of the imprint he wants to leave on foreign policy, not the fleeting opinions of prime-time TV”. An excerpt from an article written in The Hindu (newspaper) by a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Mr. Satyabrata Pal reflects the mind of thinking and concerned Indians: “It is important to stress, therefore, that talking to Pakistan does not mean that we are soft on it. Trying to make peace with Pakistan is not a sign of weakness.The government that comes to power after the next election will do the same. It too will try to make peace with Pakistan. If it does not, it will be abdicating its responsibility and charting a course that diverges so completely from its predecessors that it is unlikely to get broad, political support. It is a given that if the Prime Ministers agree to meet at the U.N. General Assembly, there will be outrages at the LoC or in India, to torpedo the meeting. If the Prime Ministers do agree on the next steps, the provocations will increase. We can certainly urge the government of Pakistan to stop these, but should know that, realistically, they currently cannot. We must nevertheless persevere so that they eventually can”.
It is good that Pakistan has officially and unequivocally condemned the Jammu attacks.
Mention may, here, be made of a number of influential Indians from the political and economic fields, these days, visiting Pakistan, one after the other. One may refer to the participation of Mani Shanker Ayer and other well-placed Indians in the Pakistani TV talk shows as well as visits of the parliamentarians and businessmen to Islamabad and Lahore.
While welcoming the change of mood in India, Nawaz Sharif has to tread the path carefully. Considering the euphoric statements he made soon after taking over his office as well as Indian short-term and long-term plans and designs, he would be well-advised to act prudently with a view to safeguarding Pakistan’s national interests.
    The writer is an ex-federal secretary and ambassador, and a political and international relations analyst.