Zardari re-born

The re-birth of Asif Ali Zardari as the new political icon on Pakistani political landscape has taken the nation by surprise. Until very recently, nobody could imagine that Mr Zardari, who once was blamed for all the shenanigans of the Pakistan Peoples Party, would attain such a gigantic political stature in such a short span of time. His actions so far have invited a lot of appreciation from all quarters, even from his opponents. Not only did Asif Zardari canvassed for the party successfully and sailed it through the elections but he also pulled out PPP from the grave crisis, which it faced in the wake of the sudden death of its larger than life leader Ms Benazir Bhutto. This newfound respect is well deserved and is based on his actions and policies, however, sceptics are of the view that this newly acquired reputation of Mr Zardari as a politically astute champion of national reconciliation will be short-lived and so will be the life of the new coalition government. The first test of Zardari's leadership came right after Benazir's death, when speculation gripped the whole country about the future of Pakistan Peoples Party due to impending leadership crisis. The immediate decision by Asif Ali Zardari to nominate Bilawal as Party Chairman, however, settled the dust quickly and left little room for scuttlebutt. The decision to put party's reigns in the hands of a nineteen years old Oxford student might be criticised if judged purely from the western standards of democracy but considering the ground realities in Pakistan and the fact that Pakistan Peoples Party has been synonymous with the Bhutto family, Bilawal can undoubtedly prove to be the well-needed cementing force within the party. Moreover, being a direct descendant of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir, he is likely to face little challenge from anybody within the party leaving the playing field wide open for his father. Another admirable decision taken by Zardari was not to opt for the much-revered post of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Although speculations were rampant post-February elections about his desire to get into the office himself, especially due to the considerable delay in nominating the prime ministerial candidate, he proved them wrong by nominating Yousaf Raza Gillani. Gillani's candidature was well appreciated by party's rank and file as he is seen as somebody who has made a lot of sacrifices for the party, by spending six years in jail during the tenure of previous government and never made a deal despite tremendous pressure. Moreover, the elections of 2008 once again demonstrated that the PPP needed to expand its vote bank in Punjab if it wants to gain simple majority on its own in the next elections and Mr Yousaf Raza Gillani's appointment is certainly expected to strengthen party's support base in the province. Zardari's decision to nominate Gillani immediately drew comparison with Sonia Gandhi's well-respected and widely popular decision to take the back-seat role in neighbouring India and was widely commended. Recently, Asif Ali Zardari again hinted at the possibility to assume the PM's office. Although one cannot judge the seriousness of his comment, such a decision may not be advisable, at least for now. Not many people would disagree that the new coalition government will be operating on thin ice and will face a host of challenges in the wake of decades old conflicting orientation of PPP and PML(N) loyalists. Under these circumstances, Zardari's decision to remain in the background will provide him ample room to consolidate his position within the party, leaving all the administrative hassle for the new PM. As far as the party's internal affairs are concerned, Asif Ali Zardari has so far fared really well however, from outside the party he still faces quite a few challenges, despite the fact that he has put in considerable effort to have all his bases covered. His decision to form a coalition government with PML(N) and to refuse any possible alignment with the presidential camp was widely applauded. Not only this decision was in line with the Charter of Democracy, which Benazir signed only a few months before her death, but also resonated well with the will of the people as indicated by the general election results. However, in terms of the future political strategy, there is definitely a downside for the PPP in this partnership. Shahbaz Sharif, the new chief minister designate has a reputation of being a highly effective administrator and even during his last tenure as chief minister of Punjab, his popularity graph rose exponentially because of his achievements. Given a free hand and another term, he is likely to win mass support in the province of Punjab, leaving little room for PPP in the next elections. Asif Ali Zardari, therefore, is in a catch 22 situation here, as he has to draw a balance between ensuring the stability of the coalition government as well as creating sufficient electoral space for his party in Punjab. In Sindh, Asif Ali Zardari's efforts to forge a partnership with MQM have so far proved futile. This attempted partnership was not a political compulsion, as PPP enjoys a majority in the Sindh Assembly, but was apparently motivated by the desire on PPP's part to create harmony and peace in urban Sindh. However, after the "Arbab Ghulam Rahim episode", the consequent riots in Karachi and MQM's decision to sit on the opposition benches, things are likely to go a different route. Not many people would disagree that maintaining peace in Karachi is the need of the time as, if things go out of hand, the government might not have many options to deal with the crisis. Involving the army would not be a prudent choice as well, as unlike 1996, it is heavily engaged on the northwestern border and is facing a severe threat from the terrorist elements. Karachi can very well prove to be an Achilles' heel for the government, if the political situation there is handled inappropriately. Another area, where Pakistan People Party presumably could have done better is the restoration of judiciary. From the very beginning Mr Zardari has been maintaining a rather vague stance regarding the issue. His stance apparently has either originated from his personal feelings against a few individuals who had given him a hard time during his confinement or his cautious political attitude. This ambiguous stance, however, has prevented the PPP to fully capitalise on the public sentiment, which is clearly in favour of the complete restoration of pre-November 3 judiciary. Mian Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, has taken a tough stance and has emerged as a staunch supporter of independence of judiciary, a factor which is expected to substantially help PML(N) in the future elections. The current political scenario presents a reasonably healthy picture for Asif Ali Zardari's political scorecard, where his actions have resulted in widespread respect and approval for his steps. The only test for Mr Zardari in the short term now is to openly and publicly restore the judiciary to win public support. In the long run however, he faces the daunting challenge to successfully run this coalition for a few years. The romance between PML(N) and PPP can very well be attributed to the anti-Musharraf sentiments that have brought the two archrivals together and hence the widespread belief that once the general is out of sight, the future of this coalition would be in serious jeopardy. Moreover, the coalition government also faces grave challenges on both the foreign policy and economic fronts. Not only the international community is keeping a close watch on how the new government will tackle the issue of terrorism, the masses are hoping that they will finally get a respite from the widespread suicide bombings. On the economic front people are also expecting some relief in the form of controlled prices and availability of essential commodities. If somehow Zardari is successful in handling all these issues well, he will definitely be on his way to create his own legacy. On the downside, however, he might risk his political future. E-mail: hasaankhawar@gmail.com

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