Islamabad - Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) inhabits a unique bio-geographic position for being blessed with high mountains, splendid rivers, wetlands and lush green pastures. Above all, the region has highest concentration of massive glaciers after the Polar Regions, which are the principal sources of water both for the region itself and rest of the country.
Despite receiving average rainfall as little as 200mm, its water, mostly coming from the melted snow, ice, alpine lakes and glaciers, contributes some 50.5 billion m3 to River Indus or makes up some 72 per cent of its mean annual flow, according to a recent report by the GB Environmental Protection Agency (GB-EPA).
Along with the centuries old masses of glaciers (covering 10-20 per cent of GB), a seasonal snow cover as high as 30-40 per cent that lasts for a single season forms a natural reservoir of frozen water that has an immense importance for GB and Indus Basin.
But, as alarmed by the report, rising global temperature is threatening this ages old phenomenon. The glaciers are now melting at an unprecedented rate forming huge lakes at their terminuses. An area that is already ecologically fragile in terms of precipitation and temperature and is also prone to natural disasters (earthquakes, landslides), this accelerated melting and subsequent lakes are giving rise to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) - a challenge the region is yet to cope up with.
Experts say, in the current climate change scenario with temperatures rising around Karakorum, Himalaya and Hindu Kush ranges, addition of liquid rainfall together with glacier melt has multiplied the intensity of hazard. The high mountains in the region bar the monsoon rains to reach there and most of its valleys, due to receiving little amount of rainfall, are characterised as cold desert. But now the settings are shifting, as the monsoons have penetrated there.
Speaking to The Nation, Dr Ghulam Rasul, chief meteorologist at Pakistan Meteorological Department, said, “Monsoons are intensifying in the region increasing the amount of precipitation which is more alarming.
Temperature of monsoon rainwater is less than the temperature of snow and when it falls on it melt-rate surges up to many times.”
This fast-tracked melting has already started giving adverse effects in the form of GLOFS and 2010 floods, which were initiated from GB. “Even an amount of rain as little as 2mm can be very devastating.
It will penetrate the cracks on the glaciers increasing their melting and bringing voluminous water in glacial lakes.
As the banks of all such lakes are natural, not manmade, and are very fragile, this huge amount of water will develop a pressure on their banks that will eventually fall apart and water will burst out as a flood,” Dr Rasul added.
Shehzad Hasan Shigri, Director GB-EPA, told The Nation that most occurrences of glacial lake outbursts in GB were reported during April and May and a pilot project on these glacial lakes had started working in Bagrot Valley (one of the vulnerable areas situated some 35 km away from Gilgit).
Monitoring stations and early warning system were also installed there and locals were being given awareness on evacuation in case of lake outburst floods, as, earlier this year, an event of outburst had caused severe damage to infrastructure and agricultural lands in the valley.
GB-EPA, established in 2008, has developed a database resource centre where data from some 14 automatic weather stations and eight grading stations will be collected, which will help in better assessment of climatic changes in the region.
“In addition we have drafted a new Act 2014 that will soon be presented in GB Legislative Assembly. Once it’s approved, we will be able to take action against people who are polluting or causing harm to the environment, currently we have no such provision,” the director said.
According to the official, the only local factor that could be held responsible for emission of greenhouse gases in the area was extensive burning of wood as a fuel.
Due to high-priced fossil fuels, during harsh winters, people in the area have no other option except to burn wood and, as the valleys are out of wind corridor, greenhouse gases remain trapped there for longer. “But climate change is a global phenomenon and we need regional and international cooperation to avert dangerous climate change,” the official stressed.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-Fifth Assessment Report, released this year, frequency and intensity of extreme events related to climate change are likely to increase in South Asia posing further challenges to food security, water supplies, infrastructure, livelihoods, health and wellbeing.
Globally, most greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have come from just a few countries and the report warns that if global society continues these emissions at current rates, the average global temperature could rise by 2.6-4.8 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Projections indicate that northern parts of the country may be getting more hot than south and under a low emissions scenario average temperatures in the glaciated northern mountains could be 4 degrees Celsius warmer than now by the late 21st century.
The report also states that whether global society continues to emit greenhouse gases at today’s rate, or cuts greenhouse gas emissions sharply now, doesn’t make a big difference but it does however make a big and irreversible difference to the risks in the longer run.