Washington  -  US President Donald Trump warned evangelical leaders that if Republicans lose control of Congress in the midterm elections, Democrats will institute change “quickly and violently,” The New York Times has reported.

At a meeting with those leaders at the White House on Monday, Trump said everything was at stake for his conservative agenda if his party loses in November, according to an audiotape of the meeting obtained by the Times. Democrats “will overturn everything that we’ve done and they’ll do it quickly and violently,” Trump said, according to the Times report published Tuesday night. “They will end everything immediately.”

“When you look at Antifa,” he added, referring to militant leftist anti-fascism groups, “and you look at some of these groups, these are violent people.”

The Times said a White House spokesman, Hogan Gidley, declined to expand on what the president meant. It was not the first time Trump has warned of violence if things did not go his way.

During the 2016 presidential campaign, he said his supporters would probably react violently if he did not win the Republican nomination. “I think you’d have riots,” Trump warned. The Times said reporters were allowed to listen in on brief comments by Trump during the Monday meeting with ministers and pastors, and heard him talk about abortion, religious freedom and youth unemployment. But after the press was shown out of the room, Trump changed the subject and suggested how the evangelical leaders could help Republicans win in November, the Times reported. “I just ask you to go out and make sure all of your people vote,” Trump said.

“Because if they don’t - it’s Nov. 6 - if they don’t vote we’re going to have a miserable two years and we’re going to have, frankly, a very hard period of time because then it just gets to be one election - you’re one election away from losing everything you’ve got.”

Women, suburban

Republicans

key to mid-terms

Women and well-off suburban Republicans will play decisive roles in countering Donald Trump’s loyalists in November’s midterm elections, according to Ipsos pollsters who are armed with new tools to face their first big test after the billionaire’s shock 2016 victory.

Trump’s capture of the White House took the entire polling industry by surprise, as election forecasters floundered by predicting a Hillary Clinton win.

In order to obtain a more comprehensive view of a complex electorate this year, Ipsos is using three sources of information: traditional polls, expert analysis from the University of Virginia and social media trends. The new tool, available for free online, was unveiled Tuesday in Washington.

“It’s really come out of our experience with the 2016 elections... The market writ large got the elections wrong,” Cliff Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said in an interview.

There has been extensive debate over why so many polling organizations missed the mark two years ago, but in Ipsos’s view it was because “the market, in general, depended on one single input and that was polls,” Young said. “We overstated Hillary slightly” in crucial swing states and tended to “underestimate rural, white, under-educated individuals,” he added.

Larry Sabato, who heads the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said “we got drunk on polls, all of us did.” “This is our attempt to follow through,” Sabato said of the new tool, speaking at a news conference. “We’ve got to rely on multiple measures.”

Ipsos will be tracking more than 400 races scheduled for November 6, using its new tool to poll 10,000 likely voters per week, analyze the assessments of a dozen political science professors, and screen up to 5.5 million social media mentions per day.

At stake in November are the 435 House of Representatives seats and about a third (35 seats) of the 100-member Senate, both of which are currently controlled by Republicans. The governorships in 36 states, as well as numerous state and local seats, are up for grabs.

Most signs point toward Democrats taking back the House, although it will be an uphill climb for them to do the same in the Senate, where the electoral map is tougher.

“All three of the methods suggest it will be a strong blue year,” Young said. “The question is how big will the wave be?”

Another question is what to make of the president’s prediction of a “red wave” instead.

“That’s fantastical,” Young said, emphasizing that the party in power in the White House typically sheds seats in Congress in the midterms. Three demographic groups are likely to play pivotal roles.

Women, who might be put off by the scandal-plagued Trump, “will be very important” in determining 2018 election outcomes, Young said.

“There is a huge differential in terms of support for women between Trump and the Democrats.”

Kyle Kondik, another University of Virginia political scientist, noted this could be “the year of the suburban college-educated women’s revolt.”

“If we look at the president’s numbers amongst that particular group of voters, it’s really pretty weak,” he said.

Middle-class and upper middle-class voters living in America’s residential suburbs will require close scrutiny, too, according to Young.

“These tend to be Republican strongholds” where voters favor lower taxes and pro-business policies, but who have become “very turned off by the conduct of the president” and might sit out the November election, he said.

Finally, Trump’s core supporters: ignoring them would be a mistake. The president enjoys a high rate of popularity, some 80 percent, among Republicans.

Minority voters, who lean Democratic, tend to mobilize less during midterm elections. “But who knows this year?” Young said, noting that traditional political patterns have been jolted since Trump’s White House win.

On the social media front, Ipsos - through the use of complex algorithms - is analyzing trends in online conversations that provide “very good insight” into understanding the key issues for voters in 2018, Young says.

Three topics, apart from the overarching figure of Trump himself, are at the fore: health care, immigration and jobs.

Keenly aware of the Russian interference in the last US presidential election, including the spread of fake or inflammatory news reports on social media, Ipsos is taking care to detect and dismiss the “bots,” or automated accounts, some from overseas, that have proliferated in the political realm.

“What we really want to understand is what is the true human conversation going on,” Young said.