Fareed Zakaria more worried about India, not the US
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Reports from Kabul suggest Pakistan fired 'hundreds of rockets into Afghanistan. Such an unthinkable and unbelievable allegation comes from President Hamid Karzai whose voice is hardly heard within the vicinity of Kabul alone but globally his statements are circulated by strong US-backed media.
At the first place one finds no reason that Pakistan would attack forward posts of Afghanistan. There are numerous reasons. Guns of Pakistan Army dont boom at Eastern provinces of Afghanistan due to century long affinity that existed between Pashtun tribes living on the two sides of Durand Line. Those who, out of proportion flashed Hamid Karzais statement definitely nurtured certain ulterior motives which were and are on routine basis being articulated by Freed Zakria of Newsweek and CNN fame. His effort and attempts of his cohorts remains to create a wedge between the Pashtun population lives across Durand Line and for a greater peace deal between the US led NATO alliance and a small segment friendly or good Talibans.
In Fareed Zakaria words, Whatever their strength, American troops will not determine success in Afghanistan. Nor will the newly formed Afghan National Army.
As US forces are gradually withdrawn over the next three years, it is Pakistans 600,000-strong army that will become the dominant military force in the region and will try to shape its future. But that military is undergoing a deep internal crisis of identity, its most serious since Pakistans founding in 1947. How it resolves this crisis will determine its future, the future of the Afghan war and much else.
Agreeing or disagreeing with Fareed Zakaria is yet another debatable issue. One can dish out thousands of arguments to prove Fareed Zakaria is wrong in his arguments, approach. Fact remains that Zakaria is not serving the larger interests of the United States by repeating his theme about Pakistan, a failed state or success story.
Strategy to withdraw initial 10,000 troops by the United States was well thought-out plan. If not mere symbolic but to keep electorate of President Obama well content that boys have started returning from Afghanistan.
The package to withdraw initial 10,000 troops linked with heavier dependence on Pakistan and its ground forces which for all the times provide sustainable cross-border stability. This kind of stability is essentially much needed by the US-led NATO alliance then for Pakistans ground forces which are merely tasked to clear over-compounded mess created in neighbouiring land-locked state of Afghanistan for last 3 decades.
Karzais orchestra and Zakarias remote and blurred analysis hardly match the ground situation which is the main worry of Pentagon today.
While the defence planners of the United States seek more closer cooperation between Pakistan Army and the US-led NATO alliance in the wake of US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan, other regional player India and its imaginative role in the Central Asian region hardly augur well with Pentagon strategists. If at all the United States that includes its intelligence community ,the powerful State Department and the Pentagon feel any discomfort in the region that could be from another very important player Iran.
Iran borders and enjoys influence within Afghanistan for hundreds of reasons not only the geopolitical compulsions alone.
While the United States accepts, ignores and disapproves greater power play by China but more is concerned New Delhi which, at present, nurtures, a strong desire to establish 'Market Monopoly ', in Central Asian region. Fareed Zakaria and company merely give let to greater Indian designs by creating several harrowing scenarios against Pakistan. In his scheme of things Pakistan Military, a well-trained and discipline entity remains an irritant for Indian-style Great Game in the Central Asian region.
Zakarias baseless theories to negate Pakistan Armys strong Islamic character with highly professional skills and traditional discipline are a mere futile efforts to demonize a stabilizing Institution that could in any eventuality prove a better ally to the US-led NATO alliance.
Despite his prejudices Zakaria concedes, Pakistans military has traditionally been seen as a secular and disciplined organization. But the evidence is now overwhelming that it has been infiltrated at all levels by violent Islamists, including Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathizers. Here Zakaria is not candid to his profession but toes Indian line against Washingtons comfort. Unfortunately thoughts of Fareed Zakaria are getting closer to despondency - radiating Pakistans Ambassador to the Hill. Hussain Haqqani ,if not supportive of Fareed Zakaria his own apprehension when he spoke, Pakistani military viewed the US as a hostile force trying to perpetuate a state of controlled chaos in Pakistan and determined to denuclearize the regime.
Islamist ideology is replacing strategy. For 60 years, Pakistans military has focused obsessively on its rivalry with India. Large elements within that military appear to be switching obsessions, and the United States is replacing India as the organizing principle around which Pakistans military understands its national security interests.
If this happens, not only is the Afghan war lost but Pakistan itself is also lost. (It does not have that far to fall; it made its annual appearance this year on Foreign Policy magazines Failed States list, coming in 12th, above Yemen.) Ambassador Haqqani explained to his audience, If (the threat) really comes from the United States then weve already lost, ladies and gentlemen, because you cant beat the United States in a military confrontation.
Let us be honest, we do not have the means to take on the one military power in the world that spends more on defence technology than the next 20 nations in the world. So that is where I think we sometimes end up having what I call an 'emotional discussion. The red-thin line visible to Fareed Zakaria and not to Hussain Haqqani is living reality that Pakistan is a Nuclear State and its bit a difficult for analysts of Fareed Zakaria to accept and digest.