The importance of the BRI-CPEC, in the regional-global contexts, can not be overstated. Whereas the CPEC is Pakistan’s economic lifeline of the future and crucial to its potential prosperity, it is simultaneously, the flagship project of the BRI and its logical launch pad into the Greater Middle East Region (GMER) and beyond. It portends to promote regional interconnectivity and prosperous economic interdependence. However, even more important are the far-reaching strategic connotations that the CPEC, the Mekran Coast-Gwadar Complex in particular, hold in the context of far deeper geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic imperatives of China, Pakistan, and ominously of some major regional-global powers. A subtle clash of interests has thus emerged over the BRI-CPEC. The US-led West and its allies see this as furtherance of China’s expanding strategic reach and sphere of influence and have moved decisively to circumscribe it.
The 5GW on the CPEC, in particular the dastardly terrorist attacks on it, are thus a direct function of this policy. Pakistan and the CPEC are literally under attack!
The BRI and the CPEC are core national interests of both China and Pakistan. The CPEC, in particular, has been in the crosshairs of its detractors for a while now and subjected to relentless terrorist attacks along with ferocious media and diplomatic offensives. In recent weeks China has expressed its serious concerns over the multifarious challenges that the CPEC is facing and Pakistan’s efforts to meet them head-on. The message is explicit and unambiguous. The CPEC is under threat from Afghanistan and Iran-based terrorists and must not be allowed to stagnate. The prevailing political, economic, social, and most importantly security conundrums in Pakistan, it implies, are hampering the BRI-CPEC’s rapid progress toward its stated objectives. President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and Mr Liu Jian Chao Minister of the International Department of the CPC pulled no punches in conveying Chinese apprehensions. Could their statements be presaging profound implications? Are there alternatives available, possible?
Pakistan is in dire straits. Period. At the domestic level, it suffers from unfathomable political strife, instability, and polarization. All the main political protagonists, in their own right, feel themselves wronged and unfairly done. Their bloated egos seem to have permanent ascendancy over national interests. They seem oblivious to the gravity of even Pakistan’s existential problems. The economy continues to totter on the edge of imminent insolvency with scant chances of any quick recovery in sight. Religious extremism and sectarianism have taken root and are now flourishing unbridled in the form of vigilante and terrorist groups. The society stands polarized and is imploding speedily. Unremitting terrorist attacks continue to take their toll on the people. The patchy writ of the government has thus made the CPEC, its Chinese projects, and workers vulnerable to unsparing, cross-border terrorist attacks!
At the regional level, Pakistan is at odds with three of its four neighbours. China is now showing signs of exasperation too with the gross inadequacies, and incompetencies of Pakistan’s various rulers coming to the fore. This could eventually affect bilateral relations. RAW and other hostile intelligence agencies continue to pursue the deep, far-reaching strategic objectives of some major regional-global players against the BRI-CPEC. Their aim is to destabilize Pakistan, delay, disrupt, and if possible, destroy the CPEC, stunt the BRI, deny China access to the Arabian Sea-Persian Gulf region/GMER and cause a break in Sino-Pak relations. Afghanistan has been outrightly dismissive of Pakistan’s war on terror. Operation Azm-e-Istehkam has been announced by Pakistan. It is a whole-of-the-nation and government undertaking and is intended to tackle the whole ambit of extremism and terrorism, decisively. Importantly, the Armed Forces must have a carte blanche to go astride the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in pre-emptive and hot pursuit operations, whenever, wherever required!
At the international level, Pakistan continues to be managed through a policy of remorseless coercion - through the IFIs and other donors. They have a stranglehold over Pakistan’s economic jugular through the IMF, WB, ADB, etc, and continue to exact their proverbial pound of flesh and more. Their economic hitmen have consummated a great hatchet job and continue to do so with aplomb. Pakistan’s freedom of policy formulation and decision-making is thus seriously compromised. Diplomatically, Pakistan appears increasingly irrelevant to global and extra-regional affairs. It seems to be losing its importance, status, stature, and clout that it once held in international relationships.
This rather sorry state of affairs can be directly attributed to all the civil and military governments that have (mis)ruled this blighted country for the last seven decades or so. Over the years, political instability and the persistent threat of a military takeover, have stunted Pakistan’s growth as a viable democracy, a normal state, and a respected member of the international community. It has always been a question of a government’s survival and a blatant pursuit of personal pelf and some party interests - while there was time! Pakistan and its interests have generally been a distant third, if not further down the list of priorities. There has not been a single credible leader of any worthwhile calibre, competence, stature, wisdom, sagacity, dynamism, ambition, drive, clout and courage around to make an impact and place for himself and the nation in the international arena, for much more than a while now. Pakistanis have always been ruled, never led! All this must change now. We need to move out of this disastrous cycle of political insanity - trusting and reinforcing the same set of political failures, over and over again. They are the problem. Had they been the solution, Pakistan would have been out of the woods, a long time ago!
Nevertheless, can they now move cohesively and decisively to secure Pakistan’s most vital national interest?
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.