In this benighted country of ours, how were opportunities to make amends and do better, availed of, during the last 66 years. A look back would be instructive. One may in particular see how democracy zigzagged over time, how it got overrun by the top brass and how it bounced back only to be pushed aside by the establishment, time and again. It is a sad story of ambitious generals, inapt politicians, docile judges, some weak-kneed civil servants, wayward youth, insufferable feudal lords, myopic clerics and an ineffectual civil society as well as international interventions.
The rot started with the first martial law. The political process was halted. The constitution was thrown into the wastepaper basket and the politicians demonised and humiliated. A new kind of politics was fabricated to provide a cover for the military’s heavy hand. While a serious effort was made to plan and execute economic development projects, there was little of sharing of authority and involvement of the stakeholders in decision making. A direct result of this concentration of power was the alienation of the people of the eastern part of the country, who refused to be satisfied with economic lollypops, deprived as they were of a place at the higher echelons of the decision-making mechanism. Resentments developed into protests and after the denial of their right to form a government after the 1970 elections on the basis of their winning majority of the seats, they were hardly left with any alternative but to opt for a parting of the ways.
The military regime was followed by a civilian elected government led by a charismatic leader. There were great expectations. A new political party, which championed the cause of the poor and the deprived, had assumed power. Here was the great chance for democracy to take root in Pakistan and to work for the good of the people. A government of the chosen representatives of the masses could work wonders. There was an air of excitement. It made a good start. It was able to forge a unanimously approved constitution. It, however, did not take long for the political head of the government to fall a prey to the temptation of taking to undemocratic ways, maltreating political opponents, dismissing elected provincial governments, ordering military operations and not hesitating to rig elections for acquiring unbridled authority. The letter and spirit of democracy stood botched. There were countrywide protests. Bhutto had to pay dearly for his follies. The military lost no time to stage a return to power. The country was back under another martial law. The military dictator promised to hold elections within 90 days. He, however, clung to power for almost 11 years till he was bumped off. The cruel hand of fate removed him from the scene.
Another opportunity came Pakistan’s way to establish democracy. A young Benazir returned to the delight of cheering mobs. She led a promising PPP government. The military, though, kept some of the levers in its own hands. Unfortunately, she fell short of expectations and was dismissed by a civilian President for corruption and poor governance. She got another opportunity, but did not complete her term and was again thrown out.
Nawaz Sharif, too, had had two stints. The first time, he fell out with the presidency, and the second time, he failed to get rid of a threatening Army Chief by mishandling the latter’s dismissal. The military was back in the pavilion. More than any of the previous dictators, he sought to militarise the administration. While the media flourished during his time, the judiciary was badly mauled. The lawyers’ movement for the restoration of the Chief Justice and his colleagues, plus blunders like the massacre at the Lal Masjid and the killing of Akbar Bugti, paved the way for his exit.
Enter Asif Ali Zardari as successor to a slain Benazir. A new chapter of a democratic experiment ensued.
The elected houses have completed their constitutional terms - quite an achievement, thanks to Zardari’s shrewd handling of the political players, Nawaz Sharif’s cooperation and General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s remarkable restraint. The PPP-led government, however, was badly disfigured by poor governance, rapidly deteriorating law and order, electricity shortages, soaring prices, terrorism and unprecedented corruption.
An assessment by the London Economist says it all. It recognises Zardari’s “deft” handling of the political challenges and the first time a Pakistani democratic government completing five years that will be succeeded by another elected government. There is a “cause for celebration in a country where the army has so often stepped in, to halt experiments in democracy.” And “yet the mismanagement and naked money making under Zardari have been such that this milestone gets few cheers from Pakistanis.”
How about the coming elections? What are the prospects of a turnaround, a change for the better? In an article, Robert M. Hathaway, Director at the Washington Woodrow Wilson Centre, has taken Pakistanis to task for suffering all along “shoddy governance, venal practices…...and failing institutions.” He concludes that Pakistan is heading towards a “terminal decline”.
If one goes by the recent opinion polls, the next elected government would be led by PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif. There, probably, will be a hung Parliament giving rise to traditional wheeling and dealing, obscuring the opportunity for drastic changes and a pro-people governance. (Shahbaz Sharif’s impressive performance in the Punjab notwithstanding.)
Will Imran Khan make good his claim of a tsunami? The political pundits are not that sure. Will he live up to the six promises he recently made at Minar-i-Pakistan? Michael Kugelman, a well known American writer, in his latest column, says: “Odds are against Imran Khan assuming power.” If, however, he does succeed in securing the helm, Kugelman has his reservations about his leanings towards the Jamaat-i-Islami and his views about USA and Taliban. He does not rule out Pakistan moving towards “a downward spiral”. He concedes that PTI embodies what Pakistan needs most - hope. He recognises that PTI’s internal elections will help strengthen democracy and the “party’s clean reputation brings credibility to its intention to root out corruption.” But for him, “Khan is the quintessential high-risk investment.” The party lacks experience and “if he were to take power, the returns could be intoxicatingly high - or dangerously low.”
Pakistan today faces formidable challenges and there are several urgent tasks to be addressed. These include the menace of terrorism, militant extremism, energy crisis, the economic meltdown and poor governance. Will the next government have the vision, the will and the capacity to attend to these formidable challenges and tasks successfully?
There is little doubt that this election will determine the direction Pakistan will follow in the years to come. Up or down. The people are on trial. A testing time, indeed!
The writer is an ex-federal secretary and ambassador, and a freelance political and international relations analyst.
Email: pacade@brain.net.pk