ISLAMABAD - Federal Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh would present the Economic Survey 2011-2012 on Thursday (tomorrow) revealing that the country had missed the major economic targets set for the outgoing fiscal year.
According to the information, which would be incorporated in the Economic Survey 2011-2012, the country has missed the GDP growth target of 4.2 per cent set for the outgoing financial year, as it would be around 3.7 per cent. Sources aware of developments informed that government would hold floods, power crisis, and external economic situation responsible for missing key economic targets during the outgoing fiscal year.
The government has missed the targets of agriculture, services, and large scale manufacturing (LSM) sectors during the outgoing fiscal year due to one or the other reason. The agricultural sector is expected to grow at 3.1 per cent during the year 2011-2012 against the target of 3.4 per cent. The agricultural sector was severely hit by heavy rains and floods in Sindh provinces but good harvest in Punjab has more than offset the damages to the major crops. The performance of three out of four major crops – cotton, rice and sugar – has been satisfactory in the ongoing fiscal year 2011-12, while the production of fourth major crop wheat has gone negative as compared to the last fiscal year 2010-11.
Meanwhile, industrial sector of the country would also miss the growth target during the fiscal year to be ended on June 30 mainly due to the ongoing power crisis in the country. The industrial sector is expectedly to grow at 3.6 per cent as compare to the target of 3.7 per cent and Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector is likely to grow at 1.8 per cent against the target of two per cent during the outgoing fiscal year.
Similarly, the services sector also remained under pressure during the ongoing financial year, as this sector is likely to grow at four per cent against the target of five per cent.
According to the official sources, the government would also miss fiscal and current account deficit targets during the outgoing financial year, as fiscal deficit is likely to go beyond five per cent of the GDP as compare to the revised target of 4.7 per cent. The current account deficit would remain at higher side of $ four billion.
The size of overall GDP has been estimated at Rs 20.7 trillion ($ 232 billion) during the outgoing fiscal year. Total investment as percentage of the GDP will be at 12.5 per cent during the current fiscal year 2011-2012, slightly lower than the revised estimates of 13 per cent during the last year 2010-2011 mainly due to reduction in the national savings from 13.1 to 10.8 per cent at the corresponding period of last year. On the external front, exports and imports have been estimated at around $ 25 billion and $ 40 billion, respectively.
The government is likely to achieve the inflation rate target during the year 2011-12, as it is around at 11 against the target of over 12 per cent during the corresponding period last year.
Federal Finance Minister Dr Abudl Hafeez Shaikh on Sunday had given met Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and discussed with him the National Economic Council’s decisions.
The prime minister expressed satisfaction that the upcoming federal development budget would be increased from 300 billion rupees to 360 billion rupees which would be used for regionally balanced development and completion of projects especially in the areas of energy, infrastructure and food security.
For the budget, it was decided that it should be focused on ensuring macro-economic stability, growth, utilisation of resources, protection of vulnerable groups, incentives for private sector development and relief to the public while ensuring fiscal balance.