This year on November 08, 2016, at COP22 in Marrakech, Morocco, Germanwatch launched its latest Global Climate Risk Index 2017, listing countries most affected from the impacts of extreme weather events in 2015 and 1996-2015.
This time, fortunately, Pakistan does not stand among the top 10 climate affected countries in the short-term index, as it is ranked 11th, and losing US $ 907.122 million and 0.0974 per cent to the GDP. However in the Long-Term Climate Risk Index (1996-2015), Pakistan is placed 7th, losing US $ 3.8 billion and 0.6 per cent to the GDP. It is important to note that in the last year’s Long-Term Climate Risk Index (1995-2014), Pakistan was ranked 8th, losing US $ 3.9 billion and 0.7 per cent to the GDP, thus highlighting that Pakistan’s vulnerability is increasing in the long-run. The report categorically mentions Pakistan recurrently affected by catastrophes and ranked amongst the most affected countries both in the short and long term index, for the last six years.
Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Lead-Author, Pakistan's National Climate Change Policy and former DG Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) quoted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s report titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, according to which the future effects of climate change will be worldwide and most severe in South Asia. This includes Pakistan, Dr Qamar added, where climate change effects are already being witnessed, for instance the 2010 floods, which led to losses of around US $ 9.6 billion and displacing 20 million people.
‘Pakistan’s vulnerability to present and future climate change induced extreme events is principally for reasons of its geographic location, growing population, prevailing poverty and their dependence on agriculture and natural resources, which are highly climate sensitive sectors’ Dr Qamar told.
When asked about the climate change and water security nexus, Dr Qamar warned that climate change can add future stress on water resources due to erratic climatic behavior, coupled with improper use and wastages, that may further threaten food security, with multiply severe implications unless uses are rationalized.
According to Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, CEO, Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan, ‘The higher ranking in Germanwatch is not a trophy that we should be proud of. It is an embarrassing category which highlights that Pakistan has not invested historically to address climate vulnerabilities. Adding to it, more than 50 per cent of the population earns less than two dollars a day and rely on natural resources for livelihood. Increasing climate vulnerability means the resilience level of less privileged people is eroded, thus revealing that we have not prioritized resilience.
Ali Tauqeer further added, ‘It essentially means that we have not started investing in climate compatible development. Our budget is not climate smart and in order to vow for climate compatible development, we need to inculcate climate change in our agenda.’
The report informs that the countries most affected in 2015 were Mozambique, Dominica and Malawi, whereas from 1996 to 2015 Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti rank highest, thus highlighting the grim reality that the less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialized countries. In terms of damages, more than 528,000 people died due to 11,000 extreme weather events between 1996 to 2015, and losses in this time period amounted to around US $ 3.08 trillion (in Purchasing Power Parities).
He further told, ‘It is important to know that in watershed areas, the role of forests further increases, for instance, Swat could have witnessed minimal devastation during 2010 floods, if it had improved forest cover. Since forests help to control microclimate, their full potential should be explored by improving forest cover.
This further helps to empower communities, which rely upon forests for their livelihood and better adapt and mitigate climate change.’
While commenting upon the National Forest Policy which recently got approved from the Council of Common Interests (CCI), Tahir Rasheed appreciated the efforts of the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) in spearheading it and hoped that it will contribute towards increasing the forest cover of Pakistan, which will eventually improve Pakistan’s resilience to climate change.
When asked if SPFC can contribute towards building resilience to climate change, Tahir agreed and said, ‘SPFC can become the engine of change by providing sustainable farmed wood to the wood-based industries, thus reducing pressure on the existing forests and adjoining ecosystems and creating green jobs, eventually conserving the natural forests and contributing to climate change adaptation and mitigation.
The Global Climate Risk Index 2017 by Germanwatch serves as a warning to the nations vulnerable to climate change. Pakistan, which is a long-time victim of climate change, needs to upscale climate adaptation and mitigation, empowering line-departments and building the capacity of communities to deal with the phenomenon. Most importantly, Pakistan’s upcoming budget should help communities cope with climate challenge.