Is this fallout of the recent meeting of the top civilian and military heads of both US and Pakistan administration or indicative of something else which remained beneath the surface so far? Is this something which was forsaken or kept dormant due to the high expectations which we had pinned down with merely the meeting with the US administration sans its outcome, whatsoever it may be?
Just after few days of US-Pak civil and military leaders meetings, the jubilations being celebrated by Pakistan on return seem to be jeopardized in the eventuality of attacks on the personnel of Pak Army on two different occasions, one at North Waziristan and the other at Baluchistan wherein heart wrenching causalities have been done. Whether, such reactions, maybe the cause of action arises for Pakistan’s security forces to hit upon the perpetrators, local or international, political or terrorist network, would ever end here or continue for a while is yet hard to say.
The entire civil and military administration of Pakistan including the president, prime minister, foreign minister and the military chief have come out with agony and grief for the martyrs of those incidents. However, the official military response to those incidents has come out with significant indication by the very office of the army chief. “These are dying efforts of frustrated inimical forces whilst Pakistan moves from stability to enduring peace. It is time for the world to facilitate regional peace.” General Bajawa is quoted to have paid salute to the martyrs of those incidents and their families.
General Bajwa is further reported by DG ISPR as having said, “We shall ensure defence and security of the motherland at the cost of our sweat and blood.”
All the schools of the contemporary political thought would, perhaps, be having consensus upon the fact that these incidents are corollary to ‘the mutually pleasant’ environment of the recent US-Pak interaction at Washington. However, various schools of thought would definitely be differing upon the claims and commitments made by Pakistan for the peace in Afghanistan, expectations of the US therefrom, and myths and realities allied and incidental thereto and the quantum of the very outcome thereof at the evaluation stage thereafter. Therefore, certain questions which arise out the situation may be laid down as here under.
Is it all done after having interaction with the US civilian and Pentagon administration or much more is required to be done to plug corners wherefrom we can be threatened by the cyclonic political and terrorist hurricanes? Or in alternatively, all is already done to reconcile the antagonist forces including the members of current Afghan Government, Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan to secure durable peace there having strong cyclonic waves of spill over upon Pakistan’s state and society? Whether, Pakistan would really and pragmatically be in such a command and control of the affairs so as to cater to the fresh expectation of the US administration and vice versa? Would Pakistan successfully be able to make the US administration realized and convinced of its efforts to that effect to have been taken in a good faith, at the time of appraisal by the US of the commitments made by Pakistan during the recent visit to US? Last but not the least, whether Taliban, the key stakeholder in future political set up in Afghanistan, are truly under the complete influence of Pakistan or Pakistan would be able to influence Taliban by any means including assurance accorded to them to put Taliban in the control of Afghan government democratically or even otherwise?
In meteorological terms, a cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong centre of low atmospheric pressure. Politically and diplomatically, Afghanistan is equated with the centre of low pressure as referred to above in terms of political and military pressure currently prevailing in Afghanistan where the US forces are ready to create a vacuum in the wake of their withdrawal. The same vacuum is likely to be thronged and filled up by the multiple cyclonic waves and hurricanes by the local as well as alien forces around. And Pakistan naturally is the country to have its massive spill over as Afghanistan is already directly affected soil in this regards.
As regards plugging the corners of threat, professionally Pakistan might be prepared at length to provide security at the cost of sweat and blood but it hardly seems to be prepared politically to cope with the situation. A consensus amongst the seasoned political forces is need of the hour. As to whether Pakistan would come up to the expectations of the US depends upon the quantum of influence it may have over the Talibans and their leadership collectively and individually. Taliban, nothing else but would aspire independent control over Afghanistan, preferably never to be shared with the sitting Afghan government which obviously would render resistance to any such move taken by the negotiators including Pakistan, US and Qatar.
A tiny school of thought still believes that Taliban are fully under the influence of Pakistan, especially with the advent of PTI government in Pakistan under the headship of Imran Khan who has statedly been a proponent to the cause of Taliban whilst his being in the opposition. Admittedly, Taliban have shown consent to visit Pakistan, if so invited by the present government. Apart from the fact whether Taliban’s visit to Pakistan would be welcomed by opposition parties in Pakistan or its people who have been suffering in the lost of lives or not, but the fact remains what Pakistan would be able to offer them in the future power share of Afghanistan which is yet to be determined. Pakistan, perhaps, had not a pleasant experience in the post-Russian withdrawal and the Geneva Accord in the late 80s and had to suffer badly. Being confident of winning the elections in Afghanistan, the sitting Afghan government seems prune towards elections which, perhaps, is not acceptable to the Taliban who lack confidence of winning the elections by any reason of being out of power for a longer period of time or having lost the hearts of the people in major areas of Afghanistan including Kabul. Imran Khan has persuaded the Taliban to join elections for ‘the reasons and confidence’ he might have derived from his recent visit to the US or any other reasons whereby the Taliban may be assured of their absolute and definite success in the elections. However, any such assurance given by Pakistan would be acceptable to the factions in Afghanistan who have not only been fighting against Taliban but ruling the country.
Regardless of any arguments, if Pakistan is, somehow, miraculously able to broker peace by utilizing any rational and pragmatic means and get established government sufficiently acceptable to all , it shall not only win the favours of Americans but also the hearts of people of Pakistan besides materializing its long cherished strategic depth. It shall not only frustrate the designs of enemies of Pakistan but also help establish CPEC and subsequent socio-economic growth.
Vacuum is principally to be filled under the laws of nature by powerful forces, whosoever. These incidents of causalities are, perhaps, prenatal in nature. These are like cyclones. The decisive factors would remain the timing, overwhelming nature and thrust of the forces striving to fill up this vacuum. Above all, what makes the difference between the contending forces stands the robust control over nerves. Pakistan, perhaps, has to be aware and make its society aware of and develop such a strong nervous system backed by all political and social forces to get substantial and reasonable mastery over the affairs in the region to attain durable out of cyclonic peace for herself, nay the region.
