During 2000 US Elections, a friend living in Los Angles rang me up to say that he is going to vote for Republican Candidate Junior Bush. I was astonished because this friend of mine was always a stanch Democrat and always supported Democrats. He lives in states since 1982. He argued that the running mote Al-Gore had chosen was not the right choice because he is a Jew. It was widely reported in the press that Muslim community living in America had voted for Bush in 2000. Bush had won the 2008 Election. One of the Urdu language dailies from Islamabad had openly claimed that Bush had won because of Muslim voters. In 2004 John Kerry was a very strong Contender and he was ahead in several polls but at the eleventh hour religious votes turned against him and Bush had again won. This time around Obama has got the Democratic nomination which itself is not a small achievement for an African American. He is a good orator and comes out as a very straight forward person. He associates himself with middle and lower classes and talks about ending Iraq war but at the same time wants to bomb Pakistan in pursuit of terrorist hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan. He plans to take out US troops from Iraq and enhance war against terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is not good omen for our war torn region. Obama, who is ahead in nearly every poll, seems very confident. He is reminding us of is a very smart John Kerry of 2004. The race to white House was not won in 2004 until the result of last state had come. Mr. Obama and his supporters might get a surprise this time around as well because of following four factors. Factor 1: Mr. Obama is the first African American to have won the nomination of any of the two main parties, Republican and Democrats. He won Democratic nomination because majority of the African American traditionally support Democrats. The support of African American was so strong that it defeated the women support for Hilary Clinton. So, it is clear that Obama is popular in his own community. The United States is a multi-raced country but the divide on the basis of origin exists in the US society. They call it diversity. The old saying 'Birds of the same feather fly together' may come into play in the election 2008. The United States had never gone through this test before. The results of election 2008 might give everyone a surprise. Factor 2: The choice of running mate for McCain is a very smart one. The front runner of Democratic nomination for a long time was a woman. Hilary Clinton was like a breath of fresh air for American women. The US women are very feminist in nature and they had hoped to break the tradition by getting Hilary Clinton elected their first woman president. Now the nearest they can get to that target is by electing a woman vice president. Sara Palin is proving too hot to handle for the Obama camp. She is a former beauty queen and attracting lot of attention. She has also got the support of pro-life activists which are in great number in America. Factor 3: In the United States, nearly every American suffers from a sense of grandiose that the USA is the greatest nation in the world and they have the right to rule the world. Their country, technology, systems whether political, serial or economical have to be the best. Any other system is "animal farm" and any other economy is a failed economy from the start. Socialism is a word they can not stand. Mr. Obama has used the phrase "distribution of wealth" several times in his campaign and before as well. He is also associated with other social leaders who have been regarded as a "radical" of their times and the American society has not accepted them as a patriot. Some American even calls Mr. William Ayers a terrorist. The American public has some special hate relation with socialism. They refuse to tolerate socialism as a system. Mr. Obama when talks about "distribution of wealth" are regarded as socialism and this card is being played very cleverly by McCain Camp. The Obama lead in the polls is shrinking by the day and who knows what would be the result on election evening Factor 4. Every society has progressive as sell as conservative elements in it. The united states cherish in its conservatism. Conservatism in the US also means patriotism, social values, family values and all such things. These people are normally very introvert and less vocal but they religiously guard their interests and come out to vote one the Election Day without any Razzmatazz. They work vigorously on the like- minded but without any publicity. They make a difference. In the 2004 election, they had done the same and Bush had won. Now, the capitalist economy is again gaining strength which is a positive for McCain Camp. What effect, the third term in the office by the Republican, will leave on the world system has to be seen, if they win this time around.