WB terms Pak FY2010 uncertain

KARACHI (Reuters) - Pakistans macroeconomic medium term outlook is uncertain and remains fragile, the World Bank said late on Thursday, due to the uneven implementation of reforms, fiscal instability and a volatile political and security environment. The fiscal year 2009/10 looks difficult, the World Bank said in Economic Update for Pakistan in September. The Bank said fiscal instability is likely to continue due to poor revenue collection, and the target for the budget deficit in the first quarter ending Sept 30 is likely to be missed. Failure to raise revenues going forward would further heighten Pakistans vulnerability to shocks, and jeopardise countrys development efforts by limiting resources available for planned investments in human and physical infrastructure, the Bank said. The International Monetary Fund came to the rescue with a $7.6 billion bailout last November to help Pakistan avert a balance of payments crisis. In July, the IMF boosted the package to $11.3 billion, of which just over $5 billion has already been disbursed. Pakistan officials are due to meet IMF officials in Dubai from Nov 2 to Nov 12 for a third review of the countrys economic performance. In addition to the IMF cash, Pakistan has secured loans from multi-lateral donors such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Pakistan achieved high economic growth earlier this decade partly due to heavy reliance on external finances, but failed to raise revenue and savings, which left the economy vulnerable to external shocks, the bank said. The World Bank is projecting GDP growth for fiscal year 2009/10 at 3.0 percent, lower than the governments target of 3.3 percent but higher from 2.0 percent achieved in the previous fiscal year. The current account deficit and fiscal deficit for the fiscal year ending June 30 is projected at 4.7 percent of GDP and 4.9 percent of GDP respectively. Our reporter adds: On Thursday, the State Bank of Pakistan in its annual report projected 2.5 to 3.5 per cent GDP growth rate for the fiscal year, 2009-10. SBP projections indicate that average CPI annual inflation for FY-10 is anticipated to remain in double digits by dropping to around 12 per cent, which is a little higher than the FY-10 target of 9 per cent whereas, the growth in fiscal deficit may hover between 4.7 to 5.2 per cent and current account deficit, however, is likely to be 4.7 per cent to 5.2 per cent of GDP during entire FY10. 'Exports are projected to stand at over $18 billion while imports would be in the range of $30.5 to $31.5 billion respectively in FY-10. In terms of workers remittances, country is estimated to receive $ 7.5 to $8.5 billion worth in 2009-10, the report added. According to report, a gradual recovery is underway during FY-10, and real GDP growth is likely to be close to the target of 3.3 per cent for the year. However, there are still significant potential risks in the economy that can put upward pressure on inflation number. These risks include: (a) strengthening demand pressures resulting from fiscal stimulus announced in FY-10 budget and subsequent possible pressures on external account ;(b) possibility of strengthening inflationary expectations as a result of broad-based rebound in international commodity prices; (c) prospect of imported inflation if domestic currency weakens; and (d) weak fiscal position.

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