Predicting Trump

After a twitter show of name-calling between Kim Jong-un and Trump, this visit to Asia would be a more towards a more traditional kind of diplomacy.

The primary purpose of the visit is to send a strong message to North Korea. Trump’s visit to a US military complex south of Seoul in South Korea is indicative of strong front off to the hermit kingdom. The ASEAN meeting is also the perfect stage for Trump to solidify allies and partners against the North Korean threat and move toward a denuclearized Korean Peninsula.

However, the more important question to resolve, and one that has the most implication for Pakistan, is the question of Trump’s further policy with Asia, and if the inwards policy of United States will allow China to fill the power vacuum. Trump’s meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and with China’s Xi Jinping are important, considering Japan’s expanding regional security role and China’s intentions of a more global policy.

Trump’s reaction to China will be harder to predict, keeping in mind the inconsistent policy towards China. Certainly, Xi Jinping’s recent move of enshrining his expanding global policies would not sit well with Trump. Trump’s visit, as well as acknowledging China’s support in sanctions against North Korea, however signifies a positive step.

However disjointed Trump can sometimes be, he is likely to hold his “America First” slogan in his visit, and is likely to drive the message home at the Asian-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC). Trump seeks improved bilateral trade deals with Japan and South Korea and set on talks with China to roll back the US deficit.

The visit of 11 days is one of the longest foreign visits of a US President to Asia and serves to be decisive and influential. Whether Trump’s goals of rolling back on North Korea and his trade pushes are achieved, at least, Asia can brace itself for an answer on US’s approach for the next four years.

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