Dr Kamal Monnoo

  • We are at the advent of cotton season in Pakistan, but sadly there is no cotton crop management policy or then perhaps, no real functional government at a time that holds the key in determining the (textile) sector’s performance over the next twelve months – everyone seems preoccupied ...

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  • Alan Greenspan (Former Chairman of USA’s Federal Reserve) once remarked that, “Heading the Fed requires much more than mere competence and understanding. It requires a nose, intuition, vision and a belief in monetary management to keep the economy in the right direction.” He ...

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  • Like many other ill-conceived election promises by Donald Trump, abandoning TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) is surely one that both the US (United States) administration and more importantly the American people must now be regretting. Protectionism is quite simply the wrong option, which ...

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  • Taxing businesses prudently is a very important economic management tool, as not only does it reflect the mindset of the government of the day, but more importantly it also helps businesses build a perception on how pro or anti-business a government really is. Pakistan’s budget 2017-18, saw ...

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  • After weeks of wrangling, there was no outright winner of the UK general election, with both the Conservatives and the Labour party failing to secure a majority. Commentators had suggested that UK Prime Minister Theresa May called an election back on 18 April to achieve a stronger negotiating ...

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  • World economy faces uncertainties and pessimism in 2017 over a series of “black swan” moments like Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 on a protectionist agenda. Mr. Trump’s recent move of pulling USA out of the Paris Climate Deal adds to this uncertainty, which ...

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  • In the final budget of its term, PML-N projected that an increased growth rate of 6% in 2017-18, will not only allow its government to keep a wide range of expensive development promises, but also do so while keeping the fiscal deficit in check at 4.1%. Is it wishful thinking? Before one answers ...

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  • Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has won the French election with 66% of the vote, in a resounding victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Immediate market reaction to Macron’s win was relatively muted, with the outcome having been largely expected. Although European shares briefly ...

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  • As per the national debt figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in November 2016: - Total Central Government debt as on 30.09.2016: Rs19.9 trillion, ‘excluding contingent liabilities’. - Break-up: Domestic debt=Rs14.4 trillion & External debt=Rs5.5 trillion. - ...

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  • Strange times – for years, successive United States administrations prodded, cajoled and beseeched China to open up its markets and at the same time also make commitments to limit the use of fossil fuels to try to show the global effects of climate change. Today the roles have reversed. ...

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  • Pakistan’s external sector is facing increased pressure as its trade deficit has alarmingly widened 28.7% to $17.4 billion during the first seven months of the ongoing fiscal year due to a continuous decline in exports and double-digit growth in imports. The latest trade figures released in ...

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  • I had written about the latest Indian Budget recently and thought that it would be a good idea to also analyze an European Budget, as such an exercise can serve as a good precursor to our own budget, which is to be announced in a couple of months or so. In the UK, post Brexit, despite positive ...

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  • The textile export figures in January 2017 have finally registered a rise; meagre at about 0.8%, but a rise nevertheless, especially when the trend had been negative for almost 2 years. And a simple inference from this: The government’s textile package may just be working and perhaps it would ...

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  • In an article written a couple of weeks back, “Pakistan’s debt: putting the record straight”, the Finance Minister explained that why in his opinion both Pakistan’s domestic debt and external debt are well under control and how the public debt management under his government ...

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  • An interesting budget was announced by the BJP Indian government last week where it kept to the themes it has recently been propagating: a) A move away from the exception-based regime, that fosters crony capitalism and corruption, and b) getting India ready for the future by facilitating its ...

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  • Economic inequality, societal polarisation and intensifying environmental dangers are the top three trends that will shape global developments over the next 10 years. Trends such as rising income inequality and societal polarization triggered political changes in 2016 and have exacerbated global ...

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  • The global corporate world in general is in denial about the prospects of a global trade war, even though protectionism was a central theme in both the big political events in 2016: Brexit & Trump winning the US elections. The voters trusted the promises to bring back good manufacturing jobs to ...

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  • We can debate about the state of Pakistan’s economy, glass half full or half empty, but without being too critical the following would be my seven recommendations to the economic managers for 2017. 1. Focus on Falling Exports: Like it or not, the textile sector still directly or indirectly ...

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  • Mr. Trump may be making more noise than his predecessor, but make no mistake, the Obama administration is the one that has quietly been changing the course of US commerce and trade since quite some time now. With a significant slowdown in global growth, the trade protectionism trend in the US has ...

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  • Donald Trump may capture headlines by goading China on Twitter, irritating Theresa May by suggesting Nigel Farage would make a good ambassador to Washington and putting together a tax programme that seems destined to exacerbate the US budget deficit. Flying in the face of much of what he said he ...

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  • So what exactly is Pakistan’s present debt profile? As per the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in November 2016, the total Central Government debt as on 30.09.2016, stood at Rs19.9 trillion, ‘excluding liabilities’, and of which the domestic debt constitutes ...

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  • Regardless of all the protests that have erupted post US elections - citing issues on rights, gender, race, religion, creed, etc. – the fact remains that Americans mainly voted on economic grounds. After all, if religion, immigration or race would have been real issues, they would not have ...

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  • South Asia’s economic weakness and a rise in inequality appear to be causing a disturbing growth in the myopic democracies that govern it and in its rising ethnic nationalism. What we see today is a region mired in abject poverty, competing within itself in the wrong areas and for the wrong ...

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  • CPEC, originally was proposed by the Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013, with a project linking Kashgar in northwest China with Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea coastline in Baluchistan. The initiative is also driven strongly from China’s quest for Warm Waters. ...

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  • A relatively good southwest monsoon and the possibility of GDP accelerating during the rest of the year, had given rise to high hopes that Pakistan would finally be able to surmount the lackluster growth witnessed over the past three years. Unfortunately, even as the monsoon approaches its end, ...

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  • It is difficult to have a constructive discussion with the government functionaries on the state of Pak economy. Led by an over confident finance minister, nearly the entire economic leadership believes that they have done an outstanding job over the last 3 years on the economy, which is now ...

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  • It is more than 3 years since this government took over – and 8 years in its recent stint in the parliament to work out the sort of regulatory reforms required to put the Pak economy in the right direction. Regulation is crucial in delivering fairness, efficiency and effectiveness in an ...

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  • The Pakistani economy is in a jam. Debt is far higher than output and this can only be addressed by boosting growth or productivity and preferably both. We are where we are because of chronic loose money going the government’s way, stemming from a lack of bank lending controls on ...

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  • Rising stock market index is an indicator often used by Pakistani finance ministers as a measure of their success in management of the Pak economy. In the past we saw Shaukat Aziz boast about how the stock market and respectively the investor’s confidence in stocks per se had prospered due to ...

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  • Confidence in Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his team is waning, three years after he swept to power in a landslide election. Business executives and entrepreneurs in Lahore and Karachi grumble about the lack of big reforms and almost everyone these days’ wonders aloud whether Mr. Sharif ...

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