Chinese Spokesman Lu Kang said in a statement that President Xi would visit the three Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt) over five days from Tuesday. Pakistani Prime Minister and Army Chief will visit Saudi Arabia and Iran on the same dates. In the past month, China has hosted high-level members from both the Syrian regime and its opposition. It has consistently urged a “political solution” to the Syrian crisis, despite being seen as having long protected President Bashar al-Assad, and four times vetoed United Nations Security Council measures related to the conflict. Last year, China helped broker a landmark nuclear deal with Iran. Days after the signing of the historic framework agreement, Iran was approved as a founding member of the Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (becoming operational this week), which is expected to provide funding for ‘One Belt, One Road’. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister to Middle East Affairs visited Saudi Arabia and Iran, a move unprecedented and in a situation where global powers or United Nations Security Council are inactive. US, EU sanctions on Iran were lifted due to the N-Deal. China continues to invest in an international soft power strategy.
The Chinese economy ranked first in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) according to IMF figures, which showed that the Chinese economy was worth $17.6 trillion, compared to America's $17.4 trillion – when China overtook America as largest economy in the world in November 2014. Since then, experts have heralded China's rise as an 'Economic Giant in World System' as it replaced America after 150 years as the biggest economy in the world. The IMF estimates China's economy will be worth a whopping $27 trillion in 2019. A record of mighty economic prowess, effective diplomatic endeavors and strong security measures has ensured China's rise as a 'symbolic' moment for the global economy. China enjoyed three decades of double-digit growth before the global downturn, as industrialization and sweeping economic reforms created a new powerhouse in the East. The PPP measure of output makes India the third largest economy, followed by Japan in fourth place and Germany in fifth. Russia, Brazil, France, Indonesia and the UK make up the rest of the top 10 in that order. Many economists believe the PPP measure of an economy is the fairest measure because it takes into account the cost of living in different countries. Oil is a major factor in determining the prices of major commodities that affect micro and macro level of consumption in a national economy. Brent Crude Oil prices have reached a staggering low of $30 per barrel causing major disruptions in earnings of oil producing nations. Saudi Arabia, the world's major producer of oil, has followed a policy to keep oil prices low in order to influence political and economic theater of the Great Game. A weapon as mighty as oil triggered earthquakes in the 'Kremlins' and 'White Houses'- where decision of encirclement of Russia has led to active pursuit of military enforcement in order to curb militancy that causes instability and, tackle situations that compromise vested state interests.
Turkey was prompted to attack Russian fighter plane as a counter move to project control over oil and trade routes through Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt have put up an militaristic form of allied resistance that would engulf the Gulf region with wars in the case of frictions escalating between the two major opponents in the sectarian Middle East politics i.e. Saudi Arabia and Iran; aside from the Russo-American rivalry. The execution of Sheikh Nimr Al Nimr was a planned trump card to counter the increasing Iranian influence in Gulf Region. The Yemen invasion and announcement of 34-nation alliance aimed at inclusion of Sunni nations. Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeyr and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin Salman visited Pakistan to show a determined resolve, but an unsustainable one as Pepe Escobar states: ‘Saudis did not realise that their Maths has been wrong all along… Their supreme hubris is to deny Iran any leeway in exports, which will be inevitable.’ Riyadh is following Washington’s orders once again. Aramco is the price. The diplomatic norm of consensus and policy of non-interference has suffered a tremendous setback in the course of energy wars. Sectarianism and militancy emerged after Iraq and Afghanistan were attacked. A military solution can never be part of the solution to any problem that involves inter-state interests on global level. Istanbul bombings prove that Turkey’s war on PKK and collaborating with ISIS is now coming back home; liberal and democratic credentials of Erdogan’s Turkey were hampered.
Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Saudis are divided on issues that do not include Iran. Furthermore, Iran will start pumping oil at competitive rates in international market as US, EU sanctions on Iran have been lifted this week. Saudi government understands that they should make a paradigm shift from ’cross-swords’ to ‘cross-roads’ in their decision-making standards regarding domestic and international policy. Possible Saudi-Iranian confrontation in Bahrain spiraling into direct war has prompted Chinese to proactively engage in a diplomatic effort to neutralize the impending war scenario that would engulf the gulf region and potentially, bring total breakdown in international trade and trade routes. China’s Deputy Foreign Minister visited Tehran and Riyadh to stall any possibility of further tensions which would’ve had the potential to upgrade the conflict from a proxy war to direct confrontation in Bahrain. The costs of spill-out effects and unintended consequences have taught Gulf states a lesson. With the ‘chicken coming home to roost,’ the Saudis have decided to undertake a transition from a warrior state to progressive nation. Saudis have decided to invest in major projects that are aimed at energy conservation on economic grounds rather than militaristic endeavors. Pakistan's finance minister said that Saudi High Officials are expected to visit Pakistan soon to announce investment in a major stake in the CPEC Corridor under 'One Belt One Road' Chinese Program . The House of Saud is the largest oil producer of OPEC. Saudi Arabia’s Oil is concentrated in the Eastern Province which have become point of conflagration due to sizeable Shia population. After the Nuclear Deal and Nimr’s execution, Iran was in line to adopt an aggressive posture as they shot missiles at range of American warships at impact variance of 1,500 yards and also took 10 American Navy personnel as captives from the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ located in the Gulf/Persian Sea.
A famous thinker of 20th century wrote a note titled ‘The Future of Afghanistan’ in his book ‘Stray reflection: 'Syria had the status of being a Proxy state between Byzantines and Persians. However, the future of Afghanistan is unpredictable'.
In contemporary time, Syria is a proxy state between American and Russians. Russian intervened in order to restore territorial integrity of Syrian Arab Republic. This meant intense and impartial targeting of non-state actors who were aided and abetted by hostile nations like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Turkey had the choice to either adopt a non-militaristic agenda as an endeavor to restore democracy or pursue an Ottoman-styled military conquest in Syria. Saudis have planned to terminate the Assad government as the final blow to Iran. Pakistan’s diplomatic stance has been to assure assistance to Saudis in terms of intelligence sharing against Daesh. Being a neighbor to Iran, Pakistan has decided to be cautious in its steps as not to infuriate Iranians while maintaining balance on the western border that lines up with India. Creating a balancing act in South Asia will help Pakistan to ensure peace and stability necessary for CPEC to work as a trading route. The sensible, intelligent civil-military leadership of Pakistan, unlike Turkey, has showed signs of progressive and democratic virtues of consensus and non-interference. The balancing act of Pakistan was evident in Heart of Asia Conference held in Islamabad. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif referred to Afghanistan as heart of Asia. He stated: ‘Peace in Afghanistan means peace in whole of Asia’. Army Chief General Raheel Sharif visited Kabul to ensure support to Ghani-led Government against non-state actors. The diplomatic standpoint of foreign ministry has been to undertake ‘icebreaking’ postures with countries like Afghanistan, Iran, India and Russia in order to avoid standstills in CPEC project. It is a game-changer for Pakistan and Asia. Pakistan said No to Saudi Led coalition against Yemen, last April; as China put her weight in Pakistan’s scale. A Russian declaration of support similar to Chinese support would bolster Pakistan’s Foreign Office Diplomatic campaign to bring more stakeholders in CPEC project. Saudi plan to invest in Pakistan can serve as a harbinger as shared economic interests would renew points of collaboration and produce new ideas and visions that would deem Militaristic Proxy Wars as waste of energy and resources. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Chinese President will make his first visit to Saudi Arabia and Iran, around end of January 2016. National Action Plan is a precursor to CPEC. It is self-correcting and survival mechanism. Religious militancy has taught Pakistani nation-state a lot of lessons. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with Chinese diplomats where they agreed that China and Iran have numerous commonalities. Iran’s Chahbahar Project in collaboration with India would mean long-term mutually assured prosperity. Economic interests of Asian nations are intertwined. Saudi Arabia and Iran need to understand the predicament of a fallout situation where neither party would fail without the other whether in Syria, Yemen, Iraq or Bahrain. Regional cohesion in Asia is the need of time. Asian nations have to work to cultivate seeds of peace, prosperity and development to determine a future that ensures utilization of the enormous potential that is untapped across different nations and people residing in Asia. A balancing act is needed in Asia.
Napoleon famously, said: ' Let China sleep for when China wakes, she will shake the world'. China is the world's largest country, fastest growing major economy, largest manufacturer, second-largest consumer, largest saver and second largest military spender. China is also the world's largest holder of money. China's Economic Central Planning is Capitalism with Chinese characteristics. The challenge for China is not technocratic; it is political. It is not a matter of reconfiguring power but of relinquishing power - breaking down vested interests, dismantling patronage networks and forsaking institutionalized privileges. And even if the regime mismanages this transition, political upheaval and turmoil will not stop China from growing. China is hungry for success and this might well be a reason for its enduring rise. The regime is making sure the Chinese people understand its strategy as well. In 2006 and 2007 Chinese Television aired a twelve part series, The Rise of Great Nations, clearly designed as an act of public education. The basic message of the series is that a nation's path to greatness lies in its economic prowess and that militarism, empire and aggression lead to a dead end. In short, the path to power is through markets, not empires. The Leading Group for Advancing the Development of One Belt One Road was formed sometime in late 2014. In March 2014, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang called for accelerating the 'One Belt One Road' initiative along with the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in his government work report presented to the annual meeting of the country's legislature. As an effective and final deterrent, China should extend cordial diplomatic relationship with Turkey in order to explore the trade possibilities as a motive for Turkey to banish the role of Front Military firepower of NATO in the ultimate conflagration point in Middle East i.e. Syria.
Considering the case that China has for first time produced an 'Arab Policy Paper' is an indication of Chinese Priority in maintaining peaceful dialogue between Asian Nations. China's first-ever Arab Policy paper published on Wednesday states that: "Arab countries as a whole have become China’s biggest supplier of crude oil.” The full truth is even more striking: Saudi Arabia alone is China’s largest supplier of oil, and when you factor in Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, the Arab world accounts for over 40 percent of China’s total oil imports. Little wonder, then, that China sees energy cooperation as the major factor in its approach to the region, and that remains unchanged in the policy paper. According to China’s “1+2+3” formula for China-Arab cooperation, energy cooperation will be the “core” of the relationship, with constructing infrastructure and facilitating trade and investment as the “wings” supporting that core. The “3” refers “three breakthroughs” – a wish list for future cooperation in nuclear energy, new and clean energy, and aerospace (particularly satellites, but including “cooperation on manned spaceflight”). China’s 'Belt and Road' initiative will serve as the framework for all of the '1+2+3' cooperation.
China's Foreign Policy has focused on bringing the stakeholders on table to negotiate differences and settle terms. “China is the biggest importer of Middle Eastern oil,” Zhu Feng, professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies, told AFP. “So stability in the Middle East is what China would most like to see.” As China’s economy has grown, its dependence on imported oil and natural gas has increased, making the Middle East a crucial part of the country’s strategy as it seeks to expand its influence through President Xi’s signature foreign policy initiative known as ‘One belt, One Road’. Istanbul was rocked with bomb blasts on two consecutive days which may force Turkish leadership to adopt an active militaristic stance in Middle East. To counter a possible Turkish invasion of Syria as the precursor of regional skirmish with the potential spark to ignite the flame of a World war; China and Russia have joined hands to bring Asian Countries under the umbrella of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. AIIB and BRICS aim to integrate the Latin, African and Asian economies through regional trade and flow of capital. An evidence is the China factor in CPEC (South Asia) and ASEAN (South East Asia). When the CPEC corridor is constructed, it will expand the number of trade routes between China, the Middle East and Africa. Energy security is a key concern for China, as it is the world's biggest oil importer, and oil pipelines through Pakistan would cut out ocean travel through Southeast Asia. It would provide links from the Caspian Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Saudi Arab have clash of interest in the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese Economic Projects will go a long way to ensure a mutual understanding to cooperate.
CPEC is considered economically vital to Pakistan in helping it drive economic growth, which will include the construction of highways, railways, and natural gas and oil pipelines connecting China to the Middle East. China’s stake in Gwadar will also allow it to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean, a vital route for oil transportation between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Another advantage to China is that it will be able to bypass the Strait of Malacca. As of now, 60 percent of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East, and 80 percent of that is transported to China through this strait, the dangerous, piracy-rife maritime route through the South China, East China, and Yellow Seas. China plans to build oil storage facilities and a refinery at Gwadar Port, with oil transported to its Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region via road and pipeline. This will let it move energy and goods to inland China without going through the Strait of Malacca, which could be blocked by the U.S. or India should hostilities break out in the region. According to the Indian foreign affairs ministry, Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to China raised his objections over the corridor. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping dismissed the concerns, describing CPEC as a "commercial project." China also recognizes Gilgit-Baltistan as an integral part of Pakistan. The project will also lead to development in western China, where tensions are simmering from activities by radical separatists. Pakistan plans to train 12,000 security personnel to protect Chinese workers on the corridor. Presently, 8,000 Pakistani security officials are deployed for the protection of over 8,100 Chinese workers in Pakistan.
Iran has also responded positively over the proposal to link the Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline with China, with the Iranian ambassador to China describing it as a "common interest" between the three countries. TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) Gas pipeline is an energy corridor established to cater the needs of impoverished, developing areas which according to Asian Development Bank report, will connect economic agents along a defined geography. It will provide connection between economic nodes or hubs, centered on urban landscapes, in which large amount of economic resources and actors are concentrated. They link the supply and demand sides of markets. Chinese President will visit Iran next week. It would serve as a remarkable achievement to bring Iranians into the fold of 'One Belt One Road' project. Saudi King Salman has abdicated the throne in favour of son, Prince Muhammad Bin Salman - the Defense Minister who is also in charge of of ARAMCO and, the Head of Economic and Development Affairs council with oversight over every ministry; put in charge of Kingdom's Public Investment Fund. The protocols of such stature have an immense importance in the outlines of China’s plan for expanding cooperation with Middle Eastern Nations in the future set through the lens of Arab Policy Paper. Saudis have an interest to invest a substantial amount paramount to the Chinese investment in Pakistan through CPEC. According to a Firstpost report, "the corridor is expected to be operational within three years and will be a strategic game changer in the region, which would go a long way in making Pakistan a richer and stronger entity than ever before." China and Pakistan intend that the massive investment plan will transform Pakistan into a regional economic hub. Touted as a revival of ancient Silk Route, the initiative underscores China's ambitions to wield geopolitical power to match it's economic might.
