KARACHI - The exporters of rice and the growers are giving different estimates of the production of rice in this fiscal. The exporters are claiming rice output beyond 7 million tons in this fiscal, while the farmers in Sindh are predicting less than 5 million tons crop due to water shortage. The growers have warned that shortage of irrigation water would result in 50 percent decline of yield of rice crop in current crop season in Sindh province. The ultimate outcome of this fall in rice yield would decline the export of rice to $1 billion dollars in current financial year. In last FY2007-08, country had earned over $2 billion foreign exchange from the exports of rice while the export target had been set at $2.5 billion dollars for current fiscal. But the Rice Exporters Association Pakistan (REAP) is much optimistic about the output crop and hoped for 7 million tons production of rice in current season of FY09. Meanwhile, the growers body Sindh Abadgar Board feared that the persisting water shortage may affect both the yield and export of rice in current fiscal. The rice is the highest foreign exchange earner amongst food items in Pakistan, while this year government eying for earning of over $2 billion dollars foreign exchange from the export this commodity but due to water shortage this target may be achieved in current fiscal, a grower said. The growers' body Sindh Abadgar Board wrote a letter to Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah and invited the attention for shortage of irrigation water in the province. The growers' body said that Sindh is the second largest producer of rice and leading producer of non-basmati rice in Pakistan, but shortage of water during kharif season would badly hurt the output of rice and other crops. It is absolutely critical that water is supplied to Kotri barrage till the end of October, growers said, adding that if this does not happen it is feared that 50 percent of the yield will drop consequently export earning of $1 billion may also decline in current fiscal. As Sindh is producing coarse variety rice which is consumed by the poor consumers and the poor importing countries, they will not be able to get rice at affordable rates, growers say, adding that the growers have invested 100 percent more than last year due to black marketing of urea, extra ordinary increase in prices of phosphatic fertilizers, diesel and other inputs. This will put many growers under economic distress and they will not be able to invest in coming season for wheat and oil seed, they cautioned. The growers further said Sindh has reduced its indent of water due to current decrease in water availability. It was important to save current crop on which growers have already invested heavily and crop is in bumper condition so the indent of the water should be made according to the requirement of the province, they stressed. The growers urging the CM Sindh said concrete measures must betaken for availability of water as further shortage will bring economic disaster for the growers of the province.