The geopolitical shape of the 21st century will be decided primarily by the answer to the question whether the US is on the decline. It is quite obvious from the available statistics about national power that the US no longer enjoys the overwhelming superiority that it did at the end of the Cold War when many enthusiasts declared the emergence of a unipolar world with the US overshadowing the rest of the world like a colossus. According to most analysts, the US "unipolar moment" has already passed and the trend is now towards a multi-polar world. Although the US still remains far ahead of any other country in economic, military and cultural power, its relative position in the economic field has declined as the rest of the world, including countries like China, India and Brazil, has gained ground through recording high economic growth rates. Consequently, the US economy, which produced 26 percent of the world output in 2007, will account for a declining share of the world economy in the later years of the 21st century. But it is easy to jump to erroneous conclusions based on superficial comparisons. As against the estimated US GDP of $14 trillion, Japan's total output as the second largest economy in the world is estimated to be only about one-third of the US level in nominal terms. As for China, despite its phenomenally high growth rates, its GDP in nominal terms is currently estimated to be about US$ 4.8 trillion. It will take China more than three decades to catch up with the US in terms of nominal gross domestic product if the present trends continue. It will take China much longer to reach the US level in terms of GDP per capita. India is even further behind with the estimated GDP of US$ 1.4 trillion. The relative position of China and India improves considerably in purchasing power parity terms but even their combined output in PPP terms, which is estimated to be $12.8 trillion ($ 9.1 trillion and $3.7 trillion respectively for China and India), falls far short of that of the US. In short, while there will be a gradual decline in the relative position of the US in the world economy in the coming years and decades, it will remain by far the biggest economy in nominal terms in the foreseeable future despite the current economic and financial crisis. Further, judged by most measures, the US economy remains amongst the most competitive and dynamic in the world. The US predominance in the military field is even more overwhelming. The US military expenditure accounts for almost 50 percent of the global military expenditure. It spends more on the military than the next 14 countries combined. The US military dominates on land, at the sea, in the air and in space. It is the only country which has the capability to project military power in the remote corners of the world. Despite this high level of military spending, the US military expenditure is estimated to be 4.1 percent of the GDP, which is lower than what it was during most of the Cold War. It is true that countries like China and India are rapidly increasing their defence expenditures. But considering the dominant position of the US in the military field currently and the high levels of its military expenditure, its superiority in the military field will continue in the foreseeable future. The US advantage is multiplied if one takes into account its edge over other countries in the quality of its universities, its lead over others in science and technology, the strength of its media, the world-wide influence of its culture, the strength of its alliances, especially with West European countries, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, and its influence in international political, security, economic and financial institutions. In other words, the US globally maintains a commanding position in what Joseph S Nye, Jr calls the soft power. The combination of the US hard power in military and economic terms with its soft power gives it a formidably dominant position globally and it is likely to remain so in the foreseeable future despite the gradual decline of its economic and military power in relative terms. The position may change to the disadvantage of the US in the second half of the 21st century. But till then it would be unwise to underrate the US in the foreign policy calculations of any country or to exaggerate the implications of its relative decline in economic and military terms. Pakistan's foreign policy must take into account the dominant position of the US at the global level in the short and medium terms covering more or less the next three to four decades as well as the prospect of the gradual decline in its relative economic and military power in the longer timeframe going well into the second half of the current century. It must be noted that even in the second half of the 21st century, the US despite its relative decline will remain a great power to reckon with. The maintenance of close friendly relations and cooperation with the US should remain an issue of the highest priority for our policy makers especially in the first half of current century. Those who try to underrate the importance of friendship with the US are doing a great disservice to our country. The Pakistan-US friendship need not be maintained at the cost of our ideals or our national interests. It is true that there is a great deal of the divergence of the interests of the US and Pakistan in terms of the US grand design for Asia in which India as an emerging great power looms large as a prospective counterweight to China and in the context of the US policies towards Iran and Palestine. But there is also a lot which binds the US and Pakistan close together including their common interest in peace and stability in Afghanistan, South Asia and the Persian Gulf region, the struggle against international terrorism, support for moderation in internal and external policies, quest for progress and enlightenment, and the promotion of democratic ideals and principles. The US remains not only a vital source of economic and military assistance, investment and modern technology for Pakistan but also an important trading partner for our country. A positive Pakistan-US relationship can further be of great assistance to Pakistan in the consideration of issues of interest to Pakistan in international political and economic institutions. On the other hand, Pakistan, a country with 160 million people and nuclear power, remains a friend of considerable importance to the US because of its important geopolitical location at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East and as a voice for moderation in the Muslim world. One of the main tasks of Pakistan's foreign policy should be to capitalise on the convergence of the interests of the US and our country for furthering our goals in political, security, economic and commercial spheres while remaining cognisant of the areas where our interests diverge. The divergence of the US-Pakistan interests should be managed in a creative manner so as to minimise its negative fallout on our country's essential foreign policy goals and objectives. This is a difficult but by no means an impossible task. In particular, it is important for our policy makers to recognise the long-term importance of our friendly relations with China and Iran, the vital links with the Muslim countries in general and the necessity of building up bridges of understanding with Russia. The pursuit of friendship with the US should not come at the expense of these important foreign policy objectives. Our foreign policy should aim at positioning our country in such a manner as to accentuate the advantages of the Pakistan-US friendship in the short and medium terms and prepare ourselves for the consequences of the long-term relative decline of the US power later in this century. The writer is a retired ambassador E-mail: javid.husain@gmail.com