The prevailing opinion in Pakistan is that after Obama’s re-election one would witness more of the same in Pakistan-US relations in the next few years. However, there is also the possibility for the two countries to make a new beginning. The important question is whether the two sides would have the wisdom and the courage to realise this possibility for the improvement of Pakistan-US relations on a sustainable and mutually beneficial basis.
Five main factors will determine the substance and direction of Pakistan-US relations in the coming years. They are the issues of terrorism, Afghanistan, nuclear proliferation, US-China relations and US-India relations.
In principle, the positions of the two countries on terrorism are similar. Both are opposed to terrorism in any form or manifestation. Both Pakistan and the US have been the victims of terrorism. In fact, Pakistan has suffered far more than the US at the hands of terrorism, in terms of material destruction and loss of precious human lives.
It is unfortunate, therefore, that there should be misunderstandings between the two countries on this critically important issue. These misunderstandings have arisen because of policy differences between the two governments in fighting terrorism. It also shows that the two sides have not been able to convey to each other convincingly their respective points of view on the subject. Obama’s re-election offers new opportunities to the two sides to understand each other’s point of view and better coordinate their respective anti-terrorism policies.
We in Pakistan must face the harsh reality that the country is in the grip of a tidal wave of religious extremism with links to terrorism. Pakistani Taliban and a number of other extremist organisations bent upon imposing their political or social views on others through the use of violence cannot be part of a civilised society. Besides, all these organisations espouse retrogressive ideologies, which are an anti-thesis to the progressive, reformist and tolerant spirit of Islam.
The society as a whole must combat these organisations ideologically through a sustained campaign of education and publicity to highlight their obscurantism and the way they have maligned the real message of Islam. Any organisation, which uses violence or terrorism to propagate its views, must be dealt with an iron hand, if the efforts to bring it within the bounds of law and the constitution fail.
Unfortunately, our past policies have left a great deal of ambiguity about our real attitude towards terrorism, partly because of the indecisive manner in which we dealt with violence and terrorism-prone organisations within our society. This had negative effects not only on the social and political health of our country, but also created complications in our relations with foreign countries, particularly the United States.
In the interest of our social harmony, political stability, and economic progress and well being, we must take firm action to root out these homegrown terrorist organisations. There need not be any difference of policy between the US and Pakistan in dealing with them. The same should apply to international terrorist organisations like al-Qaeda and its affiliates. Our resolve in combating them would have a positive impact also on the future prospects of Pakistan-US relations.
The evolution of the situation in Afghanistan in the next few years, perhaps, would have the most telling impact on the shape of Pakistan-US relations. Here again, both the countries are faced with challenges as well as opportunities.
The US goal is to complete its military withdrawal from Afghanistan by December 2014, leaving behind a peaceful and stable country from which al-Qaeda or its affiliates will not be able to pose a terrorist threat to it. The statements emanating from the highest levels in the US leave no doubt about it. This goal is also in the best interest of Pakistan.
The challenge facing the two governments is to coordinate with each other in designing a workable strategy for achieving this goal. This strategy must be based on ground realities and the lessons of the recent Afghan history.
Perhaps, the most important ground reality is that neither the Taliban, nor any other political group or ethnic community alone can rule and restore durable peace in Afghanistan. A political settlement for sharing power among the various Afghan groups is a must for durable peace in Afghanistan. Contrary to many prophets of doom, this is now recognised by the Taliban as the latest statement by Mullah Umar clearly indicates. Hopefully, the Afghan government and the Northern Alliance have drawn the same conclusion from the recent Afghan history.
The task facing the governments of Afghanistan, the US and Pakistan is to set in motion as soon as possible the process of negotiations among the Afghan groups free from all foreign interference. Iran’s cooperation would be an indispensable condition for the successful completion of this task. This, in turn, would necessitate a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue between the US and Iran.
The fatal flaw of the past US strategy in Afghanistan was to place excessive reliance on the use of military force to achieve its goals in Afghanistan. Obama’s re-election should enable the US administration to shift its emphasis from a force-based strategy to one which is oriented towards dialogue and political means.
Several studies in the US indicate that Washington may renew its attempts to initiate a dialogue with the Taliban in the next few months. Pakistan must facilitate this process in its own interest as well as in the interest of durable peace in Afghanistan and friendly relations with the US.
While it is for the US and the Taliban to conduct their negotiations, to be successful their end result will have to include total US military withdrawal from Afghanistan and a commitment by the Taliban not to allow al-Qaeda and its affiliates any sanctuary in the country.
The adoption of a political, rather than a force-based strategy by the US, should also put an end to the constant US demands on Pakistan to “do more”, which were a source of tension between the two countries. After all, Pakistan cannot be expected to use force against the elements of the Afghan Taliban on its soil, if the US itself is preparing to enter into negotiations with them and Pakistan is expected to facilitate the process.
It should be relatively easy for Pakistan and the US to reach a mutual understanding on the nuclear issue. Pakistan is now recognised by the international community as a de facto nuclear-weapon state. The apprehensions held by some quarters about US designs against Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal are not well founded. However, it is important for Pakistan to reassure the US about its firm commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and to do all that is in its power to stop any illegal export of sensitive nuclear technology, equipment and materials. This should not pose any difficulty to us.
The US relations with China and India can be other sources of possible tension between Islamabad and Washington. We in Pakistan must get reconciled with the reality that the US has chosen India, as its strategic partner of choice to contain China. Pakistan, which has its own vital strategic link with China, neither has the will, nor the capability to play this role. These factors will have a limiting effect on Pakistan-US relations and cooperation in various fields. For instance, the US cannot be of much help to Pakistan in the settlement of the Kashmir dispute. However, the adoption of pragmatic policies by both Islamabad and Washington should enable them to delineate areas of mutually beneficial cooperation in political, strategic, economic, technical and cultural fields.

The writer is a retired ambassador and the president of the Lahore Council for World Affairs.
Email: javid.husain@gmail.com