Challenging regional environment

After the 1971 crisis, Pakistan is currently passing through perhaps the worst crisis of its history. It is not only faced with serious internal economic and political problems, but also with a challenging regional environment. The list of internal problems is almost endless, including the issue of terrorism which has torn apart the social fabric of the country, political dissent and insurgency in Balochistan, economic stagnation, high levels of poverty, unemployment and inflation, and growing inequalities of income and wealth in the society. These problems would tax the capabilities of even the best government in the world. The tragedy is that right now when the nation badly needs the hands of a skilful leadership at the helm, it has got instead, perhaps, the most incompetent and corrupt government of its history at the Centre. The situation becomes even more alarming because of the ominous regional environment confronting the country. The fighting between the Taliban and the US-led foreign forces, and the civil war in Afghanistan between the Pashtuns and the non-Pashtuns, continue to take their toll in the form of enormous loss of lives and material destruction. The fighting in Afghanistan also has had spillover effects on Pakistan, especially in its tribal areas, because of the cross border tribal links and the presence of Al-Qaeda elements in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas. Consequently, Pakistan is under constant US pressure to do more in fighting Al-Qaeda and in denying sanctuaries to the Taliban in our tribal areas. The US pressure on Pakistan continues to mount, as witnessed by the recent statements by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in New Delhi, despite the huge sacrifices made by Pakistan in men and material in fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The unilateral US Abbottabad operation to get Osama bin Laden brought home the wide gulf of mistrust between Washington and Islamabad. Pak-US differences on the issue of terrorism and the situation in Afghanistan have placed their relations under enormous strain as shown by the recent US decision to suspend security assistance. The reports of firing and incursions by militants into Pakistan from the Afghan territory make the situation even more worrisome. Pakistans relations with India remain bedevilled by the issue of terrorism, especially after the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008 and the perennial Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek and water disputes. Although the Pakistan-India dialogue has resumed, the relationship between the two countries continues to suffer from mistrust, historical grievances and lingering disputes. Indias programme of a huge military build-up over the coming years accentuates Pakistans security concerns. The US decision to help build up India as a major world power of the 21st century primarily to counterbalance Chinas rapidly growing power, as reflected by the Indo-US cooperation in military and nuclear fields, will aggravate the strategic imbalance in South Asia. The situation becomes even more alarming, if one takes into account Russias historical tilt in favour of India as against Pakistan. In the face of these worrisome developments from Pakistans point of view, its friendship with China and Iran assumes greater significance than what purely bilateral considerations would dictate. Luckily, successive governments in Pakistan have been fully cognisant of the strategic importance of Pakistan-China friendship for regional peace and stability, and have endeavoured to strengthen it further. Nevertheless, both Pakistan and China need to undertake even greater efforts to develop their cooperation in economic, commercial and cultural fields, besides the security sector to provide a solid foundation for their friendship. During the past decade and a half Pakistans relations with Iran have been far less fortunate for a variety of reasons, the most important being their competition for power and influence in Afghanistan after the fall of the Najibullah government. Both sides committed serious mistakes by supporting their favourites in Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance in the case of Iran and the Taliban in the case of Pakistan. They ignored the ground realities, which demanded an inclusive political system in which the various ethnic communities would have their due share in power. It goes to the discredit of Pakistans military and foreign policy establishment in the period from 1997 till 9/11 that instead of working for a compromise solution of the civil war in Afghanistan in collaboration with Iran, it pursued the short-sighted policy of extending all-out support to the Taliban regime. Pakistan still has to come out of the disastrous consequences of this misguided approach. With the commencement of the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan, howsoever slow it may be, the end game in Afghanistan has started. It is vitally important that in dealing with the emerging situation in Afghanistan, both Pakistan and Iran should avoid their past mistakes. Instead of working at cross purposes, they should coordinate their efforts to encourage national reconciliation and the establishment of a broad-based government in Afghanistan in which the various ethnic communities, Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns, would have their due share in power. It is in this context that the recent visit of President Asif Zardari to Iran assumes special significance. Hopefully, the visit would not only encourage bilateral cooperation in various fields, particularly in the gas and power sector as well as in trade, but also lead to coordination between the two countries in dealing with the emerging situation in Afghanistan. When the Cold War ended, Pakistan found itself on the side of the victors, particularly in the aftermath of the successful campaign to liberate Afghanistan from the Soviet occupation. It was, therefore, well placed to derive political, security and economic benefits from that historic development. Unfortunately, the tide soon turned against Pakistan. Some of the factors responsible for this adverse development, like the US decision to walk away from Afghanistan, were not of Pakistans making. Some, like the US decision to impose sanctions on Pakistan because of the latters nuclear programme, could not be avoided as no Pakistani government could afford to roll back its nuclear programme which Washington had demanded in 1990. Pakistans decision to side with the Taliban in the Afghan civil war before 9/11 also proved to be another blunder, which pushed it into isolation regionally and internationally. The foregoing analysis suggests that Pakistan needs to take several corrective steps to deal with its ominous regional environment. There is no denying the fact that many members of the international community view Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism. If we do not deal with this issue resolutely, it can lead to even more disastrous consequences for Pakistan, both internally and internationally, than what we have witnessed already. The government in coordination with the various political parties must eradicate all non-state actors, which believe in the use of violence for the attainment of their political goals, whether internally or externally. The same tough approach should be adopted in dealing with the remnants of Al-Qaeda on our soil. We should engage the US and Afghan governments in a dialogue to encourage national reconciliation and the establishment of a broad-based government in Afghanistan, instead of the failed US attempt to impose a military solution on the Afghans. Finally, we must strengthen strategic partnership with China and Iran, reset relations with the US on a realistic basis and normalise relations with India together with building up bridges of understanding and cooperation with Russia. n The writer is a retired ambassador. Email: javid.husain@gmail.com

The writer is a retired ambassador and the president of the Lahore Council for World Affairs. Email: javid.husain@gmail.com

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