Islamabad - Proxy wars being waged in Syria and Yemen have obfuscated geostrategic clarity over the recent past and have resulted in shifting alliances between regional powers, said Dr Franck Mermier, visiting French scholar and expert on Middle East.
He was speaking at a policy debate here at Jinnah Institute on Wednesday. Dr Mermier spoke at length about the phenomenon of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and how it had attracted large support from militant outfits across the world, including Pakistan, where factions of the TTP have declared allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
He discussed the war economy at work in Iraq, which allows ISIS to compensate its fighting force monetarily far more than other militant groups; one reason why there have been significant defections within the Middle East. But the ISIS phenomenon draws in greater part from Sunni marginalisation in Iraq, which occurred during the Maliki government.
He explained that ISIS made alliances with tribes sympathetic to al-Qaeda and found recruits from the Ba’ath Party cadres. Author and columnist Zahid Hussain stated that the wars waged by America in the region have had an immeasurable impact on political sentiment throughout the Arab world. In Iraq the much acclaimed Sunni uprising of yesteryears, which thwarted al-Qaeda’s insurgency, now provides support to ISIS.
The Arab Spring initially assisted the cause of Islamist parties, but there have been reversals to this in Egypt and elsewhere, which makes it unclear how political Islam will be allowed to proceed in Arab countries.
He also pointed to the emerging competition between ISIS and al-Qaeda for militant space where the latter suffers from an unclear agenda. The ISIS has not only won territory but has also articulated an aggressive global vision, which has clear appeal in Pakistan.
Former Ambassador Ashraf J Qazi said that rise of ISIS would not contribute to welfare within Arab societies, given its tendency to “pronounce anathema by takfir” over communities. He emphasised that in the absence of good governance, de-radicalisation of the Middle East would not be possible and extremist responses would emerge from the Muslim world.