ISLAMABAD - Owing to climate change and unpredictable rains, Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has decided to review the water availability situation on monthly basis instead of bi-annual basis.
The climate change has made Pakistan more vulnerable to weather fluctuations, including severe rain, droughts etc and in such a situation it is becoming hard to determine accurate water availability for six months duration in advance, an official source told The Nation here Tuesday.
Under the 1991 water accords, IRSA determines water availability in the country and provincial share twice a year, once for Kharif season and the other for RABI season. In its meeting held on September 30, the IRSA Advisory Committee announced 14 per cent water shortage for the Rabi season. With the climate change, accurate rain forecast is becoming impossible and untimely rains/drought have made it hard to determine the anticipated water availability in the rivers in six month advance, the source maintained. Now IRSA is mulling to determine the water availability every month and will decide the provincial share accordingly. “The situation is so uncertain that just last month we were thinking of upward revision of the water shortage from 14 to 20 per cent for the season but now unexpectedly the flow situation in the rivers improved and the authority is planning downwards revision of the water shortage,” he informed. He said now the authority is expecting that instead of 14 per cent anticipated shortage for the Rabi will be 3 to 7 per cent only.
There are two views among the IRSA’s members, one support the idea that the provinces share be enhanced after increased water flows in the rivers. But some are of the view that the increased should be carried forward to provinces for Kharif crops. “The authority is anticipating that there will be additional 0.6 MAF water available during the current Rabi season,” the source predicted.
Since Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were exempted from cuts in water share, the water would be shared between Sindh and Punjab keeping in view its availability, source said. He said the decision regarding the additional water will be taken after consultation with all the stakeholders. He said that if the water regulatory body decided not to adjust the additional water against the Rabi shortage then the additional water will be stored in Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs and will be carry forward for Kharif season. Keeping in view the current water availability situation it is hoped that the additional water will help mitigate water shortage for Kharif season, the source maintained. The additional water availability for Kharif crops will be good news for growers of Sindh and Punjab.
There are various reasons behind this change, first the weather is not as cold as the previous November and second there were rains in the catchment area of Tarbela and Mangla. Besides untimely rains, since weather is not enough cold the reservoirs are still getting water from snow melting, which enhanced the water flows, the source said.