Two important events have taken place in connection with the US Indo-Pacific strategy during the month of February, 2022. The White House issued a document, the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States, describing the basis of the strategy with the planned way forward. As per this document, the strategy revolves around five cornerstones; a free and open Indo-Pacific, building connections within and beyond the region, driving prosperity, bolstering security and building collective resilience to transnational threats.

As per the document, the US vows to check information manipulation through supporting the freedom of information and expression as well as a pluralistic and independent media. Fiscal transparency, the strengthening of democratic institutions in the region and accessibility to the region via the sea as well as the air have also been focused on. Cyber cooperation amongst regional countries and partners has been stated as one of the key ingredients of the policy. The document also aims to review with innovation the existing partnerships, while strengthening the relationships with regional countries, especially India, and terms it as one of the leading nations in the region. It seeks to pool the collective strength of regional partners to face critical issues together.

Prosperity of the region as a whole has been identified as one of the key benchmarks in the Indo-Pacific strategy. It aims to achieve it via the Indo-Pacific economic framework, which is a multilateral partnership for the 21st century, bent on rapid technological transformation. It even proposes to link the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative by the G7 countries with the Indo-Pacific regional countries. It is important to mention that B3W was launched in June 2021, planned as an alternative to China’s BRI for the infrastructure development of low- and middle-income countries.

This US State Department document specifically underpins security in the region and with that comes the need for closer military cooperation. It aims to drive initiative so as to dissuade or defeat aggression and coercion in any form or domain. It endeavours to generate cooperation along the complete spectrum of military affairs. The main idea is to generate and rehearse interoperability among partner nations while developing and deploying advanced warfighting capabilities. The document, besides countering conventional aggression, also talks of counter-terrorism cooperation among partner states. The document also identifies climate change and environmental degradation as the most critical challenge to the region. It aims to urge China to commit to and implement measures to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Besides, it seeks cooperation to battle against Covid-19 pandemic in the region.

The document views achieving stipulated ambitions through various lines of effort in a span of the next one to two years. These include driving new resources to the Indo-Pacific, leading an Indo-Pacific economic framework, reinforcing deterrence, strengthening ASEAN, supporting India for regional leadership, delivering on the Quad, expanding US-Japan-Republic of Korea cooperation, building resilience, supporting good governance and bringing requisite technological advancements. The manuscript openly targets two countries which are the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. It is however, specifically supportive to India and declares it a rising regional power, a driving force of the Quad as well as the net security provider in the region. This policy script, having so much emphasis on India, is an eye opener for Pakistan. India is going to reap the benefits from all the key strands of strategy. Therefore, the strategy actually aspires to strengthen India politically, economically, militarily and technologically, which will affect Pakistan.

On February 11, 2022 the Foreign Ministers of Japan, Australia, India and the US Secretary of State met in Australia for their 4th Quad interaction. It was the ‘quad’ of Quad. The communiqué issued confirms the strategy document contents and ambitions. Many veiled attacks were made on China, wherein the members specifically asked for the implementation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to meet the challenges to the maritime rules-based order. It may be remembered here that the US itself isn’t a signatory of this convention. The joint statement also reiterated member states’ concerns on all forms of terrorism and violent extremism. It repeated condemnation of terrorist attacks in India including the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks which India blames Pakistan for. It similarly also reaffirmed that Afghan territory should not be used to threaten or attack any country, shelter or train terrorists or plan or finance terrorists which is a long-time grievance of Pakistan against India. The joint statement has also opposed the coercive economic policies and practices which are aimed at China; frequently blamed for the same; China’s investment in Sri Lanka being a case in point. The crisis in Myanmar has been viewed with concern in the joint communiqué. DPRK’s missile launches have again been termed in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions. It also shows resolute support for the ASEAN countries.

The latest meeting seems to have set the stage for the Quad to take the shape of a formidable alliance. It has in fact brought all members on the same page in developing a common understanding to tackle challenges prevalent in the region through synergising respective strengths.

For Pakistan, India is the country of utmost concern as she is likely to gain importance and capabilities that can be exploited when needed. With an ugly episode in the Galwan sector, India seems to have learnt that it lacks the stature to confront China directly; hence, frustrated to prove itself worthy of the task epitomised by the US. India’s quest for regional power status can lead to misadventure against Pakistan if not against China. The maritime domain seems to be a befitting arena where India can opt to try her luck. The month of January saw three distinct events in the Indo-Pacific; USS Nevada made a maiden port call at Guam, USS Benfold violated Chinese sovereignty and a US F-35 aircraft crashed while landing on an aircraft carrier operating in the South China Sea. The Indo-Pacific strategy is for sure ratcheting up as the first two months of the current year have seen some significant events happening in this context. The Quad leadership summit is planned in May this year in Japan. The year 2022 is thus expected to see Quad gaining real momentum.

 

Reema Shaukat
The writer works at the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad. She can be reached at reema.asim81
@gmail.com.