Predicting the future is an early handicraft of the human mind. But in the present era, where we are witnessing rapid geopolitical, economic, and technological changes, looking too far ahead can be difficult. However, if the current trends stay the same, we can try to extrapolate what the distant 2050 might look like.
First of all, let’s talk about geopolitics. At the present moment, the USA is a dominating power in the world of geopolitics. One can observe the tentacles of American hegemony across the globe from Taiwan to Ukraine. In all unfolding war-ridden countries, America is the big player. And what’s fuelling American power to be involved in all these geopolitical conflicts? Simple answer: currently, the USA has the biggest military-industrial complex of $800bn and the largest economy in the world having a worth of $28.78 trillion. Furthermore, its American power is deeply embedded in its power technological base, strong cultural influence, media power, and robust internal systems.
Owing to the aforementioned factors, many scholars regarded the previous century as the American century due to unbridled American power. However, things are going to change rapidly in the world of 2050 where China will take the lead in geopolitics as the number one player that would be followed by America. By looking at the present scenario, China has deeply committed to the peaceful rise of the country and upholding the rules of international order and diplomacy. Furthermore, China has slowly been building a series of alliances across Asia, Africa, and South America due to Chinese trade and investment.
Therefore, one can say that in the world of 2050, the Chinese stance is of utmost importance in resolving the geopolitical conflicts of that time. Chinese power would further multiply with the strategic alliance with Russia. Therefore, eminent international expert Andrew Heywood regarded the present century as the Asian and Chinese century because of the growing role and influence of Asian countries, especially China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, UAE, and KSA.
This unprecedented geopolitical shift would be in direct conflict with the current American and Western order of the world. Therefore, eminent scholars like Graham Allison in his book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?” observed the likelihood of emerging conflict between the USA and China because of the rapid rise of the latter country. Prof. John Mearsheimer observed that there is a strong possibility of another cold war between China and the USA, especially in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, in which trade and technological war would play a decisive role.
In the world of 2050, when we talk about geo-economics, China is winning here. China has already become the second largest economy in the world, having $18 trillion and continues to register a growth rate of 5.3pc, despite the trade war between America and the Western world. As per IMF projections, China is likely to overcome the American economy in the coming decade, becoming the number one economy in the world. This is unprecedented in the history of the world as America took the lead in the world of geo-economics since the 1880s, and much of American power had unpinned due to its strong and prosperous economy. This is going to change very soon in the present scenario.
The positioning of the Chinese economy at number one by 2050 would unpin an ideological crisis in the Western world because much of the economic prosperity of China has nothing to do with the liberal democracy of the West. Many eminent economists observed that the Chinese economy worked at best due to cheap labor, an export-led economy, an internal source of investment, an interventionist Chinese Communist government, and a continuity of political order in China. Not to mention the colossal role of the Belt and Road Initiative and the vision of President XI in fueling the Chinese economy.
By 2050, China would also become the largest and strongest military machine, surpassing American military power. Owing to Chinese economic projections, China has been able to modernize its military power and is determined to project its military might in the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean, which is considered the backyard of American power. Even at the present moment, many eminent American military experts observed that China has surpassed American military power in terms of naval power.
Apart from geopolitical and geo-economics, the technological revolution has played much decisive role in shaping the world of 2050. Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Biotechnology, and Robotics would have much more potential to shape our politics, economics, culture, and day-to-day lifestyle. At the moment, the USA and China have locked into technological warfare and both countries want to dominate the world of technologies. The USA has also implied potential barriers and restrictions on the exports of semiconductors to China for blockage of manufacturing of high-tech technologies, especially AI. Despite desperate measures by the USA, many reports indicate that China will become a world leader in AI by 2050 due to the massive investment of China in R&D.
Currently, the Chinese voice plays an instrumental role in international forums like UNO and UNSC. The share of Chinese power will be manifold in the World Bank and IMF by 2050. Not to forget to mention, the potential future role of BRI, SCO, and BRICS that are headed by China. Chinese initiatives of the “Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative” would be underpinned by the new rules of world order by 2050.
It is quite remarkable that a few decades ago China had considered the sick man of Asia and nobody dared to think about the Chinese century down the road. There is plenty of lessons for the dragon’s ascendancy for Pakistan as this country has deep-rooted political, economic, strategic, and cultural ties with China.
Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
