October 11 is going to be a big day in the history of the NA 122 (Lahore-V) seat. Electoral politics and campaigning is in full swing as all eyes are set on the by-elections. With Imran Khan’s presence in Lahore, the excitement has increased exponentially. Arguably, the real contest is between the ruling party and PTI, leaving People’s Party and others out of the game. Earlier PML-N has made its mark in Lahore Cantonment Board elections, which shows that PML-N still resonates with the people in Lahore. However, with Imran Khan himself throwing his weight behind the ongoing campaign for PTI’s candidate Aleem Khan, the contest is going to be neck and neck.

Even though there will be reelection in NA-144 of Okara and PP-147 of Lahore as well, yet all eyes are set on NA-122 for a host of reasons; the major being the presence of bigwigs of both PML-N and PTI.

Imran Khan himself contested from this seat in the infamous May 2013 election against Sardar Ayaz Sadiq of PML-N. Khan lost the seat with a difference of 8,945 votes. So predictably, egos are also involved this time. Furthermore, Imran Khan’s family could be seen canvassing for votes in a door-to-door campaign conducted by PTI earlier.

The October 11 by-elections are also going to be tough for PTI’s Punjab Organizer, Chaudhry Muhammad Sarwar. His services shall be put to test once again.

With PTI losing all six by-elections following the dharna, and that too with an increase in the margin of defeat in all the cases as compared to 2013, the NA 122 contest has become more crucial than ever.

On the other side, PMLN’s campaign is led by none other than Hamza Shahbaz Sharif. Hamza recently remarked that “Imran should have dared to re-run in NA-122” and “People have rejected Imran’s politics of lies” scoring more points and creating more media hype.

Sardar Ayaz Sadiq has been winning this seat consistently.  He made his mark in all three previous general elections: 2002, 2008 and 2013. Another noteworthy thing is the margin of victory for Sadiq in 2013 election as mentioned above.

This time though, one Khan has been replaced by another Khan, and Aleem does not carry the same aura as Imran. Reham Khan has also been missing during the election campaign this time. Reham Khan’s presence in the campaign may have added a little bit of the missing aura.

The hurdles for PTI do not end here. It is rumored that Reham Khan’s relationship with the mighty Imran Khan has reached a ‘point of no return’ which further dents PTI’s PR in general. Further complementing the favorable mood for PML-N is the incumbency factor. Free and Fair Election Network’s (FAFEN) election results analysis report declared this seat to be a PML-N stronghold and rightly so.

PML-N looks confident this time again and not without reason. However, if that confidence transforms into overconfidence, leading to imprudence, it may prove to be fatal.

Despite PML-N’s seemingly good position, there are various things which go in favor of PTI as well. PTI has tried to play up the anti-status quo emotion arguing that PML-N has not delivered on its promises and highlighted the corruption cases, its nepotism and so on.

Granted there is always a popular anti-status quo sentiment and always have been. However, cards need to be played smartly. Sometimes, even with the help of the hidden hand of establishment and a popular dharna, things don’t work out as planned.

Ideally speaking, by now PTI should have been selling its model of good governance of KP in Punjab. In reality, however, Lahoris are seemingly fine with their own ‘man of action’ as the Chinese envoy to Pakistan Sun Weidong declared him to be in the consulate inauguration ceremony.

PTI can also capitalize on the swing votes and the vacuum created by People’s Party’s lost vote bank like in 2013. Redundant as it may sound, May 2013 rigging allegations and ECP bashing may also be a rallying agenda. And the buzz ‘change’ is, of course, another rallying cause.

Sadly, this has been the PTI thinking before and looks like it’s not changed. A recommendation could work if paid heed. Using this campaign for its own good, PTI should come clean and own up the title of ‘the regular politicians’ and promise to bring some visible and aggressive change (Surely, Frank Underwood of House of Cards would have advised the same and used the same words).

It has to be noted that FAFEN election results analysis report also states that “The PML-N has won the constituency in the three general elections since 2002. Unlike other constituencies in Lahore, however, the party's lead in NA-122 is not as secure as the results would seemingly indicate.”

So there exists a window of opportunity to make inroads this time. The catch is that PTI is in high spirits and ready to make hay while the sun shines. And silver lining, for PML-N, is that there is no fear of the ‘Third Umpire’ ready to raise his finger now.

But the political atmosphere in Lahore tells PML-N that the lion is going to roar on October 11.

On either side, fingers are crossed.