The 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO is being held from 3 to 4 July 2024, in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana. Leaders and heads of states from all the member states have gathered to attend this important meet which is likely to discuss the issues of regional security, economic cooperation and expansion of the group. President Xi and PM Shahbaz Sharif will attend the meeting; however, PM Modi will be represented by Minister for External Affairs Mr Jay Shankar. It is being reported that Mr Modi has refrained from attending the meeting owing to his upcoming visit to Russia from 8 July 2024. However, there may be some other underlying reasons to it.

It is interesting to note that Mr Modi had earlier confirmed his presence in the meeting, while an advance security team had also conducted its reconnaissance survey there in this connection. The decision to send Mr Jay Shankar at the eleventh hour is therefore surprising. The nine-member SCO including China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan represents one of the largest regional as well trans-regional organizations in the world. Leaders from the members, observers and dialogue partners therefore prefer to attend the sessions as these provide a good opportunity to interact with each other and convey issues of mutual interests. Missing such an important opportunity by Mr Modi after having won third term as PM is little ambiguous. 

China and India have had frozen relations since Galwan crisis in year 2019 and have not held any high-level meetings from both sides since then. The crisis has been managed at the operational level whereby Corps Commanders from both sides talk to each other for managing the border issues. It is expected that Mr Jay Shankar may meet with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the summit and if that happens it would be first high level interaction between the two countries in four years. Last year when India held the meeting it was virtual, and President Xi had participated in it. It seems to be India’s strategy to avoid any highest-level interaction between the two countries and invite the thaw step wise. It is also being speculated that Mr. Modi’s decision to miss this summit could also have a bearing on India’s participation in the SCO Heads of Government conference due to be held in Islamabad in Autumn 2024 being hosted by Pakistan.

The summit is likely to bring issue of security in the region specially about terrorism and Afghanistan will surface as the key issue on the agenda. Afghanistan is an observer country and longs for its permanent membership just India, Iran and Pakistan got in year 2017. However, there is an impediment of engaging with Taliban or not that looms large. The issue of terrorism in the region is serious and must have been further compounded by the loss of 5 Chinese workers in a terrorist attack in March 2024 in northern Pakistan which might have been planned in Afghanistan. It surely raises concerns that instability in Afghanistan could allow for violent extremist groups to grow and threaten the region at large. Pakistan thus has a compelling case to raise issue of engagement with Taliban for addressing this growing menace of which Pakistan is the biggest victim. With the foreign aid and support to such groups and activities by India it is even more important for Pakistan to raise with evidence such concerns across the table during the summit.

This year Belarus is expected to be granted permanent membership of the SCO which will make its members ten. The group needs to guage the pros and cons of granting same status to Afghanistan for the sake of regional security and economic cooperation. It is interesting to note that on one hand engagement with more and more countries of the region and beyond may prove beneficial, yet countries like India with animosity towards its neighbours and mostly avoiding opportunities for fruitful interaction can be counter productive. When that attitude persists, it makes the overall environment pernicious, whisking away the interest and faith of members in the group’s potential. SAARC can be cited as prudent example in this regard. 

SCO has so far been a thriving organisation which has the potential to address perennial issues of the region and bring prosperity. But if it is to be jeopardised by the strategy of one or two countries in their own interest, then it is feared to lose steam at some point in time. It is thus important for the member countries to continue engagement and discuss the issues pertaining to the region magnanimously putting bilateral differences on back burner for regional prosperity and common brighter future. To achieve this, creating economic stakes among the member states is a sagacious way of forging ahead. Engagement with Taliban government in Afghanistan is pinnacle of peace and stability in the region which must be tackled at the earliest and with the cooperation of all members.

REEMA SHAUKAT

–The writer is Communication Strategist at the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad and can be reached at reema.asim81@gmail.com.