LAHORE-The Lahore School of Economics Tuesday opened its sixteenth international conference on “Managing Pakistan’s Economy”, after being interrupted by the global COVID-19 pandemic. The conference is spread over two days, the 2nd and 3rd of May, 2023, respectively, with a series of presentations concerning macroeconomic management and structural reform and economic rights. The goal of the of the conference is not just to discuss the context of the economic issues faced by Pakistan, but to also discuss and lay the foundations for long-term sustainable economic growth.
Dr Shahid Chaudhry, rector of the Lahore School of Economics, in his inaugural remarks stated that the current difficult economic situation faced by Pakistan emanated in large part from the effects of Covid in 2019-20 and the Ukraine war starting in 2022. The Pakistan economy was now stabilising and after almost no growth in 2022-23, it was likely to grow to resume modest growth in 2023-24. Dr Moazam Mahmood, Professor of Economics at the Lahore School, projected the Pakistani economy would start an upward growth trajectory in the next fiscal year. Dr Moazam’s model projects GDP growth over FY 2024 to be 3.61%.
Dr Rashid Amjad, Professor & Director of the Graduate Institute of Development Studies at the Lahore School, and Almazia Shahzad analysed the post-2019 shifts towards a market-driven exchange rate and found that while the exchange rate may have been overvalued in the past, this has been reversed recently which should make exports more competitive. Dr Azam Chaudhry, Pro Rector, Dean and Professor of Economics at the Lahore School of Economics, estimated capital flight from Pakistan using the data from the balance of payments and the level of trade misinvoicing in Pakistan. Syed Shabbar Zaidi discussed the oversized role of federally collected tax revenues in the total tax pool of Pakistan and how the large transfers of revenues as a result of the 18th Amendment to the provinces has resulted in them not developing the capacity to generate revenues on their own. Dr. Matthew McCartney of the Chartered Cities Institute and a managing editor of the Lahore School’s influential Lahore Journal of Economics, provided an overview of two relatively successful periods of economic and political stabilisation in Pakistan, 2000-2001 and 2013-2106 and asked what lessons can be learned and implemented in 2023. Drs. Moazam Mahmood, Azam Chaudhry and Shamyla Chaudhry highlighted how fiscal deficits can drive trade deficits. Naeem Sheikh and Arshad Hassan of the Lahore School of Economics discussed the causes and ramifications of low tax revenue mobilization and tax compliance in Pakistan.