ISLAMABAD - Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Advisory Committee has approved an anticipated water shortage of 16 percent for the provinces of Punjab and Sindh during Rabi season 2024-25. The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC), which met here on Wednesday, also expressed serious concern over the overlapping of T3/T4 & T5 works at Tarbella Dam and the lagging physical progress of T5 works of only 32% as compared to planned progress of 50% and showed apprehensions that the T5 works could spill beyond the approved period.
IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC), that met under the chairmanship of Abdul Hameed Mengal, Chairman IRSA/Member IRSA Balochistan, approved the Rabi season Anticipated Water Availability Criteria from October 1st 2024 to March 31st, 2025. The meeting was participated by IRSA Members; Engineering Advisor (Civil), MoWR; Secretaries PIDs of Punjab and Sindh; senior Technical Advisors of WAPDA; senior representatives of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma Reservoirs, T4 and T5 HPPs, senior representatives of Provincial Agriculture Departments and Director Opration / Secretary IRSA, along with senior technical personnel of IRSA, The Advisor Committee also anticipated rim stations inflow during Rabi season (Oct 1 to March 31) will be 22MAF, storage availability of 9.58MAF, system losses at 1.36MAF, and 0.07MAF releases down Kotri, said spokesman IRSA Khalid Rana.
As per the IAC, the likely availability at the canal heads for Raboi season is 31.14MAF less than last year anticipated 31.66MAF. The anticipated share of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan will be 1.87MAF. The anticipated share of Balochistan will be 1.17MAF water, while KP share is 0.70MAF. The available water for Punjab and Sindh will be 29.26MAF. The share of Punjab is 16.68MAF, while Sindh will get 12.65MAF. The advisory committee approved Basin-wise shortage of 16 pc for Punjab and Sindh for Rabi 2024-25.
The committee reviewed the Kharif 2024 system operation and observed that the actual Rim-Station inflows of 105.84MAF till 30th September were 1% more than the maximum forecasted volume of 104.60MAF and 7% more than 10-year average of 99.34MAF.
The overall provincial canal withdrawals were 19% short with respect to shares.
Indented supplies as per Para 2 shares were released to the provinces as per IRSA decision May 13,2024. Less utilisation by provinces from Aug 01 to Sep 20, 2024 was due to heavy rainfall & flooding. The actual system losses were 11.90MAF as compared to maximum anticipation of 14.80MAF. Downstream Kotri releases were 21.52MAF.
The committee was informed that due to better inflows and efficient regulation of available supplies, the storage volume available for transfer to Rabi 2024-25 was 10.577MAF, which was 6% more than 10-year average and about 9% less than last year.
The advisory committee also discussed the recommendations of IRSA Technical Committee (ITC) meeting and approved the likely Anticipated Water Availability at the four Rim-Stations of 21.98MAF for Rabi 2024-25 which was about 15% more than previous year and also about 1% more than 10-year average.
The above-mentioned likely availability at the canal heads of 31.14MAF was about 2% and 6% higher than last year’s actual availability of 30.59MAF and 10-year average of 29.24MAF, respectively. The Basin-wise shortage for Rabi 2023-24 was approved as 16%.
The committee also approved the anticipated Indus and JC Zones losses as 6% and 0%, respectively, subject to the condition that they would be reviewed ending October 2024, in the Ist week of November 2024, taking into consideration the actual system losses and accordingly updated, if required.
IAC also allowed the provinces indented supplies for the maturity of Kharif Crops & sowing of Rabi Crops during the month of October 2024, which will be adjusted towards the overall provincial shares for Rabi 2024-25, later-on during the season.
Irsa Advisory Committee was informed that the forecast and anticipated system operation was conducted by utilising the Water Apportionment Accord (WAA)-Tool.
Additionally, IAC approved Chashma Barrage Closure as requested by WAPDA for a period of 20 days extendable for five days subject to annual canal closures, from 26 December, 2024 to 14 January, 2024, which would be synchronized with Canal Closure schedules of Punjab and Sindh canals. During the Closure, Chashma Reservoir would be constrained between levels 638.15 ft to 640.00 ft with the Reservoir outflow restrictions between 15,000 cfs to 30,000 cfs.
On WAPDA representative’s request for raising of Mangla Reservoir’s Minimum Operating Level (MOL) from present 1050 ft to 1070 ft based on latest Bathymetric Survey 2024, JAC directed the dam authority to put-up the matter in the forum’s next meeting in the 1st of week of November 2024.
WAPDA imparted detailed briefing to the august forum regarding Tunnel 5 HPP of Tarbela and ensured that the works would be completed during the approved closure period of 33 months. WAPDA representatives also assured that IRSA’s provincial irrigation demands placed on Tarbela would be fulfilled during Rabi 2024-25. Regarding operation of T4-LOO, WAPDA informed that the outflow structure would be inspected in November 2024 for any necessary repairs. Hopefully the structure would be available for operation during Kharif 2025 after completion of remedial / remaining works in March 2025.
WAPDA Representatives were optimistic that the Tarbela Auxiliary Spillways would be operable in high flow period of Kharif 2025. 1AC, however, expressed serious concern over the overlapping of T3/T4 & T5 works and the lagging physical progress of T5 works of only 32% as compared to planned progress of 50% and showed apprehensions that the T5 works could spill beyond the approved period. IAC, therefore, requested WAPDA to provide firm assurance and contingency plans of completion of the TS works within the approved 33 months through Chairman WAPDA in the next meeting of the committee, as the resultant restriction of the reservoir outflows would in turn constrain the provincial supplies and would impact the filling of dams.
