Paul Hawken’s observation, “We have an economy where we steal the future, sell it in the present, and call it GDP,” distressingly captures the environmental crisis that we are faced with — a world where short-term gains lead to long-term ecological loss. This unsustainable growth paradigm has wreaked havoc across heavily industrialized nations, resulting in eco chaos. Yet, countries like Pakistan, contributing just 0.9% to global greenhouse gas emissions (UNFCCC, 2021), are among those paying a disproportionate price for this global imbalance. The devastating floods of 2022, which submerged one-third of Pakistan and inflicted over $30 billion in damage (World Bank), serve as a stark reminder of how climate-vulnerable nations are often the hardest hit.
Lahore’s smog-choked skies, for instance, have become a symbol of the country’s environmental crisis. The World Bank estimates that 128,000 Pakistanis die prematurely each year from pollution-related causes. The cost of environmental degradation, including deforestation, air pollution, and water contamination, is a staggering 9% of Pakistan’s GDP. This trend threatens to undermine not just the country’s environmental health, but its economic progress as well, as climate disasters steadily erode development gains and strain critical sectors like health, agriculture, and infrastructure. These grey skies, however, are not merely physical manifestations of pollution. They reflect a much deeper existential threat, a future where climate disasters intensify, food insecurity becomes widespread, and economic instability grows. For a nation with a young and growing population, such a future is on a shaky ground. The decisions made today will dictate the world Pakistan’s youth inherit tomorrow.
Yet, in this paradox lies immense potential. While Pakistan is not a major emitter nor heavily industrialized, it has the opportunity to leapfrog into a sustainable future without the need to undo decades of industrial pollution. It can, instead, redefine its growth model in a way that is both sustainable and climate-resilient.
One of the most promising aspects of Green Growth for Pakistan lies in its renewable energy potential. The country is rich in solar and wind resources, particularly in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan. Harnessing these renewable resources could help Pakistan reduce its dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports, create jobs, and mitigate harmful emissions. However, despite these opportunities, the current energy roadmap —outlined in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2024-34 — fails to fully capitalize on renewable energy potential. The latest plan reduces the share of wind and solar energy to just 13.3%, down from the previously projected 29.6%. Revisiting this plan is essential to ensure that Pakistan maximizes its vast renewable energy resources, following the least-cost principle to provide affordable and sustainable power.
Beyond energy, Pakistan’s future also depends on restoring and protecting its natural ecosystems. Projects that focus on forest restoration, water management, and biodiversity conservation can provide long-lasting benefits if implemented with integrity and effectiveness. These initiatives — if pursued earnestly — can increase carbon sequestration, enhance water retention, and safeguard communities from climate-induced disasters such as floods. Similarly, Pakistan’s agriculture sector can benefit from incorporating sustainable practices like organic farming, water conservation, and agroforestry to boost productivity while preserving natural resources.
One sector that stands out for its potential in Pakistan’s Green Growth strategy is ecotourism. With its breathtaking landscapes, from the towering peaks of the Karakoram to the serene deserts of Thar, Pakistan has the opportunity to develop a sustainable tourism industry. By promoting ecotourism, the country can generate economic opportunities while ensuring the protection of its natural heritage. Responsible tourism initiatives would provide an income stream for local communities, enhance biodiversity conservation, and create incentives for the protection of fragile ecosystems. Ecotourism, if managed sustainably, could help mitigate some of the ecological pressures the country faces while creating new pathways for development.
In addition to nature-based solutions and renewable energy, building climate-resilient infrastructure is crucial for Pakistan’s future. Sustainable urban planning that respects natural water cycles can reduce the risk of urban flooding and protect critical ecosystems. Pakistan’s textile industry, which accounts for 60% of the country’s exports and employs 40% of its workforce, also needs reform. As one of the largest contributors to industrial pollution, the textile sector must shift toward renewable energy and adopt more sustainable practices. This shift could reduce its environmental footprint while boosting its long-term competitiveness.
Agriculture, which contributes 23% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs 36.4% of its workforce, is another area ripe for transformation. By simplifying access to credit, adopting climate-smart techniques, and scaling sustainable innovations, Pakistan can modernize its agriculture sector and build resilience against climate shocks. The Green Pakistan Initiative, led by the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), is a promising step in this direction, aiming to reduce dependence on food imports and promote sustainable agricultural practices.
For Pakistan to fully realize its Green Growth potential, international cooperation and climate finance are indispensable. Global forums like COP29 will be critical in securing the financial resources needed to support developing nations like Pakistan in their transition to sustainable economies. Pakistan has already seen some success in this regard, such as the recent approval of $77.8 million from the Green Climate Fund for the Recharge Pakistan project. But far more is needed to ensure the country can meet its green ambitions.
But amid these challenges lies a unique opportunity for Pakistan; to sidestep the destructive path of its predecessors and forge a future built on Green Growth. By aligning its development with sustainability, Pakistan can set a course where its economy thrives in harmony with the environment.
The urgency of the choice before Pakistan is clear: it can continue following conventional growth models that prioritize immediate economic benefits at the expense of the environment, or it can embrace and incorporate sustainability with economic development. The consequences of failing to do so are already manifesting.
Unlike many countries entrenched in unsustainable practices, Pakistan has the advantage of not being bound and restricted by decades of environmental damage. This offers the rare opportunity to build a green future from the very beginning. By focusing on renewable energy and sustainable solutions, Pakistan has the potential to climb directly into a resilient future.
This is not a question of charity but of climate justice. Nations like Pakistan, which have contributed the least to global emissions, should not be left to shoulder the burden of climate change alone. As the world gathers for COP29, Pakistan must make a compelling case for the climate finance it needs to secure a green and resilient future. This moment offers a chance for Pakistan to reject the path of grey skies and embrace a future powered by sustainability, where economic growth and environmental protection go hand in hand.
syeda ishrat fatima
