Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long and complex history, and their relationship has been marked by both cooperation and conflict. Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has played a significant role in the country’s political and security landscape. Let’s examine the current state of the relationship, and what lies ahead for Pakistan as it navigates its role in Afghanistan’s future.
A major source of tension has been the issue of cross-border terrorism, as the Ghani-led Afghanistan had accused Pakistan of supporting the Taliban and other militant groups that have carried out attacks inside Afghanistan. Pakistan, for its part, had accused Afghanistan of harbouring Indians and the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) funded anti-Pakistan militant groups such as the TTP and the Baloch dissident groups that carried out attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan has also raised concerns with the Taliban about the increasing influence of India in Afghanistan, as India had been providing funding to militant organisations like the TTP to reenergise the momentum it had lost when the Ghani government fled Kabul.
India’s increased presence in Afghanistan, particularly in areas near the border with Pakistan, has been viewed as an attempt to encircle Pakistan and undermine its influence. The recent attacks by the TTP on the civilian CTD centre in Bannu are the latest incident. “The army’s elite commandos killed 25 militants who had seized the Counter Terrorism Department police station in Bannu, the military’s media wing said in a late-night announcement on Tuesday. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said the soldiers from the Special Service Group (SSG) foiled the militants’ attempt to escape the facility after their demand for safe passage to Afghanistan was rejected”.
Earlier this month at least six civilians have been killed by “unprovoked” firing from the Afghan forces near the Chaman border, ISPR said, in the latest deadly flare-up at the border between the neighbouring countries. The Pakistani army’s media wing said on Sunday that the fire wounded 17 people, and it blamed the casualties on the “unprovoked and indiscriminate fire” of heavy weapons by Afghan forces on civilians. These incidents were a very convenient coincidence only days after Pakistan had raised concerns about the Indians re-establishing their links with the banned anti-Pakistan outfits inside Afghanistan.
At face value, India’s involvement in Afghanistan has been portrayed as a means of promoting stability and development in the country, but there are concerns that India has been motivated by a desire to counter Pakistan’s influence in the region and to exert pressure on its neighbour. The long-term consequences of India’s involvement in Afghanistan fuelling its chaos machinery, particularly regarding its obsession with Pakistan, will keep on adding to the uncertainty and instability of the region.
In addition to its attacks on infrastructure and development projects, the TTP also poses a threat to Pakistan through its recruitment and radicalisation of the Pakistani youth. The TTP has been successful in recruiting young people from disadvantaged and marginalised communities in Pakistan, particularly in the ex-Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces. These young people are often attracted to the TTP’s ideology of violent resistance and may be drawn in by promises of financial support or the prospect of adventure. Once recruited, these young people are often trained in the use of weapons and explosives in either Afghanistan or India, and may be sent to carry out attacks against civilian and military targets in Pakistan.
The TTP’s recruitment and radicalisation of youth have had several negative consequences for Pakistan. In addition to the direct harm caused by the attacks carried out by these individuals, the radicalisation of youths can also lead to social and economic disruption, as families and communities are torn apart by violence and conflict. The TTP’s recruitment and radicalisation of young people also have the potential to fuel further conflict and instability in the region, as these individuals may be inspired to carry out attacks in other countries or regions.
In a scathing interaction with the international media Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar did not mince any words when she said, “All of them point to the same goal and strategy: to undermine the stability of Pakistan. The strategy is terrorism. Numerous labels can be applied to what India is doing. Chronic terrorism syndrome is a phrase that captures it effectively.” When you attempt to injure your area, you wind up harming yourself. She maintained that the incidents of Johar Town Lahore, Samjhota express, and Kulbhushan Yadav all demonstrate how New Delhi engages in a proxy war against Pakistan all the while adopting a ‘cry wolf’ strategy to portray itself as a victim of terrorism to win sympathies, according to Khar.
The TTP has caused immense suffering for the Pakistani people. The group’s attacks have killed and injured thousands of innocent civilians, including women and children. In addition to the physical harm caused by these attacks, the TTP’s activities have also had a significant economic impact, as businesses and tourist sites have been forced to close or scale back due to security concerns. Pakistan will continue to play a significant role in Afghanistan’s security and political landscape as there are several compelling reasons why Pakistan must take decisive action to permanently dismantle the TTP. Pakistan needs to adopt the following strategy:
First, no mercy should be shown to the TTP as it poses a serious threat to national security. The group has carried out numerous attacks against military and government targets and has been involved in plotting larger-scale attacks against major cities. If left unchecked, the TTP could potentially destabilise the country and undermine the government’s ability to maintain order and security. Pakistan needs to remind the Taliban of their commitment to stop its territory from being used by terrorist groups against any neighbouring country. The Taliban to form an inclusive govt with an ethnically balanced representative govt to achieve normalcy all over Afghanistan. Keep engaging with USA and NATO to remind them of their responsibility towards the Afghan people and help the Afghan government function viably and not start looking for financial aid by renting themselves out to Unruly terrorist organisations.
Second, The TTP promotes a violent and extremist ideology. The group espouses a radical interpretation of Islam and seeks to impose its harsh and oppressive version of sharia law on the Pakistani people. It has been known to target women and minorities, particularly those who do not adhere to its strict codes of conduct. If the Afghan government fails to stop cross-border infiltrations and border violations, Pakistan could consider conducting surgical strikes on selected targets inside Afghanistan. Full-scale operations against TTP are the need of the hour to remind them that taking on a battle-hardened Pakistan armed forces would be met with nothing but futility.
The TTP is a major obstacle to the development and progress of Pakistan. The group’s violent activities and extremist ideology have created a climate of fear and instability that hinders economic growth and social development once again. To move forward as a nation, Pakistan must address the threat posed by the TTP and create a more secure and stable environment for its citizens and investors alike. The group’s attacks on infrastructure and development projects have caused significant damage and disrupted economic development, while its recruitment and radicalisation of young people have had several negative consequences for the country, including social and economic disruption and the potential for further conflict and instability.
The Pakistani government and the international community, especially its regional partners like China and Russia should work together to address the threat posed by the TTP and support efforts to promote peace and stability in the region. A stable and prosperous Afghanistan and Pakistan will bode well for the world. However, negotiations with these terrorists are off the table.