Conflicts have marked the evolution of human societies and are often dubbed as an inherent part of human conduct. However, the ideal human aspiration is a conflict-free society where everyone enjoys equal rights and privileges. The ultimate duty of the collective consciousness is to strive for this ideal society against all odds. Albeit, conflicts have remained a perpetual part of human societies from prehistoric times to the modern age. History is witness to the fact that conflicts have fuelled human development. The role of the World Wars was crucial in the emergence of new technologies. Even at present, defence research and development drives public welfare technologies. As the fault lines between societies and countries have widened, a new factor has become part of the conflict equation, climate change.
Climate change is considered a defining threat to humanity. It not only impacts communities directly but also exacerbates the existing fault lines between communities and countries. The relation between climate conditions and conflict is not robustly established, but it does not mean that climatic conditions cannot influence conflicts. It is often called the driver of conflicts. The conflict over natural resources is not new. Communities and states have fought wars over natural resources along with land ownership. The current global conflicts are mostly around resource ownership, however, some are attributed to climate change.
Climate change has huge implications for food and water security along with living infrastructures. These are fundamental to humans and any impact on these will embolden the existing cleavages between communities. Often, in these cases, the conflict erupts due to a lack of access or distribution. Access to food, water, or shelter can trigger resentment, unlike other variables. The Syrian conflict is often called a climate-triggered conflict. Syria had gone through three droughts and the last drought remained from 2006 to 2011. The desertification and devastation of agricultural land displaced 1.5 million people and 800000 lost their income immediately. The climate disruption accelerated/amplified the existing political crisis in Syria descending the country into a civil war.
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The country is already embroiled in different ethnic, sectarian, political, and class divisions. Climate change has added a new layer to the equation. Climate change triggers already existing fault lines making it harder for governance structure to manage. The climate-displaced communities compete for resources in the new area and the host community is often unable to keep the sentiments capped which when poured out results in conflicts. These are pockets of small resentments albeit they have the potential to grow big if not addressed at the onset.
All the provinces have agreed on the Water Accord of 1991 for water distribution among the provinces, but the working of the accord is often contested by provinces. Pakistan receives the majority of its water from glacial melt and the rest is extracted from underground aquifers. The availability of water is greatly impacted by climate change. The increasing global temperatures have triggered glacial melt of unprecedented proportions which directly affects the amount of water in the rivers. Policymakers are aware of the situation, however, convincing provinces on the issue will be hard. Sindh has issues with Punjab over water distribution, and Balochistan blames Sindh. Moving forward, the growing demand for water layered by climate change will exacerbate the existing situation if any mechanism is not devised timely.
Climate change has a huge impact on food security and the devastation of the recent floods is a vivid example. Pakistan lost acres of cropland and triggered a shortage in the market for some staples. This year, floods and untimely rains destroyed 30 percent of Kharif crops. The tax breaks and subsidies given to the sector have not resulted in a food surplus situation for the country. Pakistan still imports staple food items. Climate change is powerful enough to disrupt global food supply chains and make countries suffer immensely. Food security still looms over Pakistan and it might have narrowly escaped the situation this year, however, the coming years might not be merciful.
Climate change has many aspects and communities in Pakistan are facing one or the other. As the situation will get worse with increasing global temperatures, the intensity of conflicts will exacerbate and the phenomena might take different shapes. The government and other authorities fighting conflicts in different pockets must be wary of climate change as a new trigger and accelerator of conflicts.