Israel’s current war in the Middle East seems to be ratcheting up the escalation ladder rather swiftly. Was the scope of the war planned to expand gradually from Gaza to the West Bank to Lebanon while simultaneously tackling Syria, Yemen, and Iran? Or did it suffer from a crucial, unplanned mission creep? Did PM Netanyahu’s domestic, political and legal troubles have something to do with this dangerously escalating war?

What is then the desired end state of this war? Will Israel have gained recognition and abiding security from its neighbours?

The IDF seems to be opening fronts at random, without any operational pauses or attaining any primary objectives anywhere. It has failed to bring the ruthless genocide it is wreaking upon the Gazans-Palestinians in Gaza to a favourable, successful closure. Hamas survives and still holds its hostages. Concurrently, Israel’s inhuman eviction of Palestinians from the West Bank continues unabated. Simultaneously, it decided to tackle Lebanon and Hizbollah. In preliminary operations, it first assassinated the top leadership of Hamas and Hizbollah, including Fuad Shukr, Ismail Haniya and Hasan Nasrullah. Then it attacked its middle level cadres through a series of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. Thereafter, it targeted Hizbollah’s cache of weapons, missiles, rockets etc. In the meanwhile, it also invaded Southern Lebanon to sanitize the area and create a perimeter of security for residents of Northern Israel. This is planned to be a limited, shallow incursion. However, Hizbollah may repeat its heroics of 2006 by imposing urban warfare on it and stopping its armoured and mechanized juggernaut in its tracks, yet again. Hizbollah might have been hurt badly but is far from finished. It is expected to rapidly reorganize, recoup, reinforce itself and start reacting. Iran has finally shed its strategic ambiguity and responded by launching close to 200 missiles of various types and kinds into Israel. The dangerously evolving strategic environment, the creeping escalation of war and the need to take some pressure off its proteges must have forced its hand. Its response had to be relevant in time, space and effect to the war unleashed by Israel in the Middle East.

The US, the undisputed master of the game, has manoeuvred itself superbly to dominate, control and dictate the geopolitical and geostrategic dimensions of this conflict. It has been in total command of the strategic environment and all developments within since the outbreak of hostilities. It has craftily created an enabling environment for Israel to pursue its ostensible “defence and security interests and imperatives”. At the diplomatic level, it unilaterally defines the narrative, which is epitomized by phrases like “Israel’s right to self-defence”, the support for a “two-state solution”, pursuing a “ceasefire”, sending some “humanitarian aid” to the Gazans, and “suing for peace” etc. There are no takers of this outrageous pantomime anywhere in the world because of the inherent contradictions in what the US-led West continues to preach and practice, ad nauseum. These homilies fly in the face of the massive flow of deadly weapon systems, arms, munitions, equipment, information, intelligence, technological, economic and political support to Israel and the consequent havoc being wreaked upon the hapless Palestinians and Lebanese. The US will always maintain the regional strategic balance in Israel’s favour. Period. Consequently, this narrative comes out as hypocritical and incredulous. This also makes the US’ partisan approach/policy to the Middle East patently untenable. It has generated deep, unintended geopolitical ramifications for the region. US’ hold on the regional countries and their rulers is weakening. Major countries like Egypt, Iran, KSA, UAE etc now favour and seek multi-alignment. It stands to reason thus that BRICS and SCO have now become fora of choice for these and other countries. Resultantly, the Abraham Accords, and the concomitant US and Israeli national interests, will go onto the backburner for a long time. US-Israel Combine’s geopolitical approach could have been much more farsighted, balanced, prudent and perhaps fruitful!

At the military level, the US has deployed extremely potent forces in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. These deployments have three clear objectives; one, to create the strategic environment in which Israel can carry out its military operations with absolute freedom of action, impunity, authority, and arrogance; two, to deter any direct attacks on Israel and failing which, three, to be well poised, prepared and positioned to join the battle in Israel’s favour, as and when required. The US-led West provides Israel with critical support, both tangible and potential. As it is, the US (UK and Jordan too) helped interdict and destroy some of the Iranian missiles that were headed for Israel.

Iran’s direct attack on Israel has drawn the US-led West into the battle and has ominously created an opportunity for it and Israel to target its nuclear program. Iran’s political leadership, economic installations, infrastructure, etc would be in the crosshairs too. However, such an attack could compel Iran to reciprocate and pay back in kind and that could bring the region and the world to the brink of an unmitigated, disastrous, unmanageable catastrophe! President Biden has spoken wisely against attacking Iran’s nuclear sites and it should stay that way. Israel will respond, nevertheless - where and how, will decide the nature and culmination of this war which is now threatening to spiral into the stratosphere, far beyond the apparently now-distant war in Gaza and its ostensibly limited objectives! A belligerent, desperate, maverick PM Netanyahu may yet risk it all and attack Iran’s nuclear installations. Did Iran take a well-calculated risk or has it fallen for the bait? Critically, will the master of the game bring about sanity in the region and pull the world back from the brink of absolute disaster? The world looks on with undisguised trepidation and hope!

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.