On February 1st, US President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which are the largest trading partners of the USA. The USA has imposed 25pc tariffs on both Canadian and Mexican goods against the backdrop of migration issues and drug trafficking meanwhile China faces 10pc of tariffs on its goods. President Trump who is known as the tariff guy uses protectionist policies in international trade as a policy and tool for pursuing American national interest.

Unsurprisingly, President Trump is pushing its agenda “America First and Make America Great Again” at the global level. Unlike previous American presidents who were inclined towards free trade, free market and globalization for tools of international trade and peaceful relations between countries; President Trump thinks differently. He has accused multiple times on many occasions that free trade has damaged the American economy, jobs market and overall American interest. Therefore, he often referred to President William McKinley- a protectionist guy- who used tariffs as a policy of trade to pursue American interests.

Protectionism and tariffs in trade serve three distinct purposes. Firstly, tariffs are meant to generate revenue collection. For example, during the World Wars era, the USA collected half of its revenue from tariffs. Secondly, the restriction is being imposed by usage of tariff policy so that domestic industry would be saved from foreign competition in that way domestic employment remains stable over the years. For instance, during the presidency of McKinley, American domestic industry saw a huge boom and innovation because of the high use of tariffs. Lastly, tariffs are used for reciprocity to get a fair and better trade deal with foreign powers.

Both Mexico and Canada are heavily dependent on the American economy. Therefore, such a high tariff of 25pc will hit badly both economies of countries. So, it makes perfect sense that the administrations of both countries have approached the Trump team to delay such protectionist measures against their respective countries. As a result, there is a month’s delay in the implementation of Trump’s tariffs on these countries. Experts viewed that Trump has used tariff measures to settle down migration and drug trafficking with these countries. For example, 80pc illegal migrants in the USA have done through Mexican borders while the deportation agenda is on the top issue of the Trump administration so Trump will go to great lengths to displace and deport illegal refugees by screwing the nuts of Mexico. Latest reports confirm that the Mexican administration is willing to place 10,000 additional border guards to halt illegal migration and also intake illegal refugees back to its country. On Canada, although initially, he wanted to make it the 51st state of America yet imposes high tariffs on Canadian goods to reduce the trade deficit, not to forget around 80pc of Canadian goods go to the USA, showing the dependency of the Canadian economy on American goods.

On the other hand, experts are divided on the beneficial results of such a provoked tariffs policy on friendly countries of the USA. Only a few experts argue that tariff measures will settle down trade deficit, illegal migration and drug trafficking with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, the majority of analysts view that such a provocative trade policy can backfire and even hit the American economy and consumers. For example, tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will result in high inflation in the USA and it faces troubles in getting raw materials, including crude oil and gasoline, from these countries causing turbulence in manufacturing industries so the job market could also be affected. Beyond the economic realm, the protectionist and tariff policies of the USA can also disturb the friendly equation of the USA with Mexico and Canada.

In China, the prospects of Trump’s Tariffs are getting dim in leading to any significant result. For instance, China is less dependent on the American economy so any high tariffs will not hurt the Chinese economy. And Trump’s agenda of using tariffs to settle down trade deficit and get a better trade deal with China will not surface any soon. However, China is also imposing 15pc tariffs on American goods, and it will hit the American economy badly due to the overdependency of the American economy and consumers on China. Meanwhile, China is blocking the exports of some raw minerals to the USA and the Chinese Trade Ministry has announced an open inquiry against Google, an American Tech Giant, for illegal activities and business in China. Chinese measures clearly show that China is well prepared to take on Trump and the USA in the trade war.

Additionally, if history is a playbook, during his first administration, Trump started a trade war on China by imposing $400bn tariffs on Chinese goods on the agenda of reducing the trade deficit. However, even after six years of trade war with China, as Biden also pursued protectionist measures with China, nothing has changed. Eminent American Professor John Mearsheimer, on the other hand, viewed that the trade war with China has less to do with reducing the trade deficit than the American policy of containment of the rise of China. On that policy, the USA has pursued both trade restrictions and blockade of high tech, semiconductors and chips for prevention of AI advancement in the hands of China. Yet, the USA has not only faced setbacks in preventing the economic rise of China but also faced humiliation when China was able to develop DeepSeek, an AI chatbot, with less budget less manpower and more efficiency.

Finally, whatever the ultimate outcomes of Trump’s tariffs policy, one thing is quite clear. The USA is doing away from the rule-based order of the international system, which was set after World War 2, in which free trade and globalization are anchored in the system. Donald Trump’s withdrawal from international treaties and organizations and doubling down its efforts on protectionist measures will weaken rule-based international order, resulting in greater chaos and instability at the global and regional levels. Furthermore, American interests will not also be fully served through transactional means of implementing trade wars as it alienates friendly countries and will not make any significant impact on China but will shake the entire edifice of world order and global economy.

Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.