The 2024 US presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could be determined by the vote from America's Muslim population, according to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the largest Muslim advocacy group in the US.

"We estimate there are about three and a half million registered Muslim voters nationwide," said Hussam Ayloush, CEO of the California chapter of CAIR.

While CAIR does not endorse candidates because it is a nonprofit organization, Ayloush told Anadolu that the Muslim vote might make the difference in whether Trump, the Republican nominee, or Harris, the Democratic nominee, wins the Nov. 5 election, especially in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

"We do believe that those Muslim voters who reside in the swing states will have a major role in determining the election," said Ayloush, noting that the Muslim community is one of several important voter blocs of ideological or ethnic minority voters in the US, which also includes African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanics.

"The only difference is many of the other organized groups might have already determined how they're voting," he added. "Muslims are still looking at options."

Gaza stance propels Green Party's Stein in polls

CAIR conducted a survey at the end of August that targeted 40,000 registered Muslim voters in the six swing states. Ayloush said that Muslim voters tended to lean Democratic, so it is not surprising that Harris leads Trump by a significant margin: 29.4% to 11.2%.

However, it is the person who is in second place that stands out. Green Party candidate Jill Stein trails Harris by a very small margin at 29.1%.

Ayloush said that is largely due to Stein's stance on the war in Gaza, in which more than 41,500 Palestinians have been killed from Israeli air strikes in retaliation for a cross-border attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 that killed nearly 1,200 people.

"Dr. Jill Stein has been very clear in the principal position of opposing the ongoing mass murder of Palestinians and their demand for an immediate cease-fire that will stop the bloodshed and start a process of allowing Palestinians their right to self-determination and to have their own state," said Ayloush, who pointed out that is in stark contrast to both Trump and Harris.

"Trump is much more pro-Israel. Trump has made it clear about his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim policies and views, but the goal is obviously to kind of sway the voters there that, 'Hey, Kamala Harris is not your friend,'" he said, adding Harris has been sitting on the fence, both sympathizing with the Palestinians yet remaining silent on condemning Israel for its continuing air strikes in Gaza.

"Oftentimes, voting is about choosing the lesser of two evils," Ayloush continued. "Many Muslim voters ask me how can one vote when you can't tell who is actually the lesser of two evils? The one who is enabling a current genocide, or the one who's saying, 'If I'm president, I will continue with the genocide?' These are real questions that people are debating within the Muslim community."

He acknowledged that it is not realistic for a third party candidate like Stein to win the presidency over Trump or Harris, but he said that a so-called "protest" vote or abstention from voting by the Muslim community could affect the outcome of the election.

Stein actually leads Harris in three of the six swing states that CAIR surveyed: Arizona (35% to 29%), Wisconsin (44% to 39%), and most notably, Michigan (40% to 12%).

Two key swing states: Michigan and Pennsylvania

"Michigan is important," said Bob Stein, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston who specializes in voting and elections.

"On the presidential level, the most impactful outcome will be in Michigan, particularly in the Livonia area east of East Lansing, where lots of Arab and Muslim Americans live and vote," Stein told Anadolu. "Evidence of that was the Democratic primary in Michigan, where upwards of 200,000 votes were cast."

If that translates over into the general election, Stein believes the Muslim vote could make a significant impact on which candidate wins that key battleground state — and, ultimately, the election — but the professor emphasized there are a lot of "ifs" to factor into that equation.

"Polling in Michigan now shows Harris up anywhere between three and five points," said Stein. "Two hundred thousand votes in the state of Michigan is not inconsequential. Michigan went for Biden by about 100,000, 114,000 votes in 2020, so if all 200,000 Arab American Muslim surname voters said that the war in Gaza and America's policy towards Israel is intolerable ... it could cost Ms. Harris winning Michigan and winning the presidency. All those ifs make the probability of that happening not trivial and not beyond the realm of possibility."

While Prof. Stein believes the war in Gaza is an important issue for Muslim voters, he added that other issues need to be factored into their decision, including the economy, immigration and abortion.

He also believes that it is essential for Harris to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in addition to Michigan, in order to occupy the White House come November but pointed out there are an array of possibilities for Harris to defeat Trump, with or without the Muslim vote.

"But I think there's a really good chance — less than 50-50 — that (the Muslim vote) could be consequential to the outcome of the electoral vote in Michigan," Stein told Anadolu. "(Harris) could lose Michigan and win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and that would make up for losing Michigan. More than likely, I think she wins Michigan and Wisconsin, irrespective of whatever Arab American voters do."

Citing recent polling data, Stein does not believe Harris will defeat Trump in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and, possibly, Nevada. And even though he believes Michigan is important, there is one other swing state that the professor believes will be the key to winning the Oval Office.

"For me, the real only question is, 'What happens in Pennsylvania?'" said Stein. "Should she lose Pennsylvania, I think she loses the presidency."

If that is the case, Muslim voters could also have a significant impact in Pennsylvania. The most recent CAIR survey placed Harris in a favorable position with 37% of the vote compared to Trump's 8% and Stein's 25%.

Prof. Stein pointed out that polls and surveys have a relatively small sampling size with margins of error, and their results are not absolute, but CAIR's Ayloush said the results indicated that Muslim voters might play a crucial role in the upcoming election and the Muslim community wants Trump and Harris to be very cognizant of that with the Nov. 5 presidential election quickly approaching.

"I hope neither of the candidates take the Muslim vote for granted," said Ayloush. "I hope that both of the leading presidential candidates pay attention, because not only the image of America is at stake here, but also their ability to win or lose this election."