History is full of examples of deposed monarchs fleeing to neighboring countries, seeking refuge with sympathetic rulers, and attempting to rally support to reclaim their thrones. However, such scenes have largely vanished with the emergence of modern nation-states and the decline of absolute monarchies. Yet a similar dynamic has unfolded between Bangladesh and India following the student-led protests that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s government after 15 years in power.

Fleeing the protesters, Sheikh Hasina has taken refuge in India, one of her staunchest supporters throughout her tenure. As a deposed leader, she is now wanted by the new Bangladeshi administration to face trial for the brutal repression of student protests and other alleged atrocities committed during her rule.

India, meanwhile, hopes to leverage Hasina’s presence to maintain influence in Bangladesh, despite the regime change. Tensions have already flared, with the provisional head of the Bangladeshi government, Nobel laureate Yunus Khan, calling on Hasina to refrain from making statements about Bangladesh until she returns for trial. Nonetheless, Hasina continues to provoke controversy by discrediting the new government and reminding the Bangladeshi people of her father’s legacy. This situation is unlikely to remain in limbo for much longer. The longer Sheikh Hasina stays in India, the more strained relations between the two countries will become, as Bangladesh sees its neighbor as harboring a fugitive. This presents India with a difficult dilemma.

Should India continue to shelter Hasina, a long-time political ally, or hand her over to the new Bangladeshi government in hopes of mending ties? Either option comes with significant risks, leaving India in a precarious position where it stands to lose credibility with its allies regardless of the choice it makes.