“Abki baar 400 paar” – the election slogan of BJP and PM Modi – did not reach its goal in the results announced on June 4, 2024. Despite massive claims by the BJP and Godi media about achieving a thumping majority for Modi’s third consecutive term, the BJP secured only 240 seats. With the NDA, this number rose to 293, indicating a return to coalition government in India. Meanwhile, the opposition alliance, INDIA, won 232 seats, demonstrating the resilience of the Indian opposition and defiance against Modi’s leadership.

Let’s discuss some takeaways from the results of the Indian elections in 2024. Firstly, the charisma of Modi has dwindled as the BJP failed to secure a clear majority of 272 seats. It is also notable that the BJP has been losing political capital in the state of UP, winning only 33 out of 80 seats, despite claims of good governance and appeasement of extremist Hindus. This suggests a defiance against the politics of hatred, violence, and extremism towards Indian minorities. During the BJP’s ten-year rule under Modi, Indian Muslims have faced anti-Muslim policies and rhetoric, such as the Citizenship Amendment Act. In January 2024, the BJP played the religious card by opening the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya at the site of the former Babri Masjid. However, the BJP lost in Ayodhya, indicating the public’s rejection of hatred.

Despite tight control over governmental agencies, judiciary, media, business, civil administration, and party funds, the INDIA Alliance’s 232 seats are commendable, reflecting the true spirit of defiance through the people’s voice and mandate. Despite not achieving a clear majority, Modi will continue to be Prime Minister for a third term with NDA support. Eminent political commentators like Ravish Kumar suggest that Modi needs to abandon his politics of hatred and division. Inflation, unemployment, inequality, education, and healthcare were key issues for Indian voters in the 2024 election, while the BJP’s focus on Mughals, Muslims, mutton, and Pakistan did not impress voters this time.

Moreover, analysts believe that a coalition government in Modi’s third term will hinder his domestic agenda, such as the Uniform Civil Code and altering the secular nature of the Indian constitution, given the BJP’s lack of majority in both chambers of Parliament.

On the international front, the West has embraced Modi due to India’s importance as a bulwark against China and its expanding market. President Biden has called USA-India relations a defining feature of the 21st century. Despite claims of neutrality, Indian foreign policy has leaned towards the West and will likely continue to do so under Modi. However, potential risks from RAW’s covert operations in the USA, UK, and Canada remain. The coalition government will need to decide if it will continue such policies.

Relations with China have been strained since the 2020 border clash, with both countries increasing border infrastructure, drone surveillance, and troop presence. During his previous tenure, Modi took a hard stance against Chinese businesses, aligning with his Hindu base and the Western community. China has also expressed concerns about India’s participation in the anti-China group, QUAD. Whether Modi will ease tensions with China in his last term remains a significant question. With a coalition government, India’s ability to maintain its “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy while aligning with the West and engaging with China will be critical. Balancing pressure from Western governments regarding Ukraine and partnerships with Russia will also be a challenge.

Regarding Pakistan, the BJP and Modi have historically used anti-Pakistan rhetoric to energize their Hindu nationalist base. During the 2024 campaign, Modi accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism, despite India’s own involvement with TTP and BLA in Baluchistan and KPK. He also threatened attacks on AJK and GB for political gain, but this was countered by his counterparts, who reminded him of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. The key question post-election is whether Modi is willing to engage with Pakistan for peace in South Asia. Both countries face issues over Kashmir, terrorism, water, border management, arms race, trade, and diplomatic relations. Pakistan has extended an olive branch for dialogue and peace; thus, after the BJP’s humbling election results, Modi should consider reducing anti-Pakistan rhetoric and working towards resolving issues for the greater good of the 2 billion people in South Asia.

Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.