Pakistan has been subjected to a vicious 5th generation war (5GW) for some time. Its economy is being maintained at barely subsistence levels. It seems consumed by social unrest, political instability, imminent economic insolvency, and fighting off manic terrorist groups. National leadership and governance are conspicuous only by virtue of their ineffectiveness. An aura of uncertainty, disbelief, despair, and despondency is steadily creeping into society. Pakistan seems to be surviving on borrowed money and time.
Pakistan’s situation is further compounded by the unrelenting assault by terrorist groups and their sponsors, financiers, and mentors based in Afghanistan and Iran. It is a multidirectional and multidimensional onslaught where the BLA/BRAS and TTP have targeted Balochistan and KP, respectively. Do they have unified aims and objectives? Their vile animosity towards the state of Pakistan is perhaps the only common denominator between them. However, there appears to be only one master of their games who pulls their strings, controls them, and makes them dance at will. The mastermind and the enemy attacking Balochistan and KP is one; only the avatar of the terrorists employed is different!
These terrorist attacks in Balochistan have far-reaching and extremely critical implications at the global, regional, national, and provincial levels. They reflect the crucial planning that must have gone into deciding the timings, conduct, coordination, reach, objectives, effects, and the desired end state of these attacks. At the geopolitical level, these attacks in Balochistan have manifested the security threats that beset the BRI-CPEC. The avowed objective of India and the US-led West is to delay, disrupt, and destroy the CPEC and circumscribe China’s expanding sphere of influence by stunting the BRI’s further ingress into the Greater Middle East Region (GMER) and Africa. At the geostrategic level, these attacks perhaps intend to forestall the potential militarisation of the Mekran Coast. Any military force based on Balochistan’s Mekran Coast will, by default, acquire an enhanced strategic reach encompassing the GMER, Africa, Europe, and even beyond. Naval, air, and missile forces based here can foray forth to oversee global SLOCs and East-West trade through the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. At the geoeconomic level, any power based on the Mekran Coast will have a controlling oversight on global-regional trade, especially oil, to and from the Persian Gulf/Hormuz Straits. Critically, Gwadar portends to become the transshipment port of choice in the region. Furthermore, the development of a petrochemical industry and mineral refining and manufacturing facilities in the hinterland of the Mekran Coast could imply an economic bonanza for Balochistan and Pakistan.
At the regional level, a disrupted BRI-CPEC will curb interconnectivity and economic interdependence, seriously retarding the economies of the region. These attacks threaten the potential East-West and North-South trade corridors including oil and gas pipelines that could criss-cross Pakistan and the region. At the national level, these attacks intend to further vitiate insecurity, political instability, social unrest, economic deprivation, and hasten Pakistan’s ostensible implosion. Pakistan’s and, by implication, Balochistan’s economic resurgence thus gets further threatened. At the provincial level, a sordid attempt has been made to fan rank provincialism and ethnicism by singling out Punjabis in the terrorists’ apparent quest to satiate their supposed grievances. As a rider clause, the IFIs’ stranglehold on Pakistan’s economy is likely to tighten further. Pakistan considers the CPEC its economic lifeline of the future. However, no economic resurrection is possible with a stunted BRI-CPEC and the less than benevolent IFIs. All of the above define the strategic compulsions of the regional-extra regional powers and the desired end state of the latest terrorist onslaught on the BRI-CPEC, Balochistan, Pakistan, and, by implication, China!
Quite unsurprisingly, these terrorist attacks coincided with the death anniversary of Nawab Bugti and the International Day for Missing Persons. They were spread over the length and breadth of Balochistan. In Musakhel, the terrorists shot dead 23 Pakistanis and stormed a paramilitary camp in Bela. On the highway near Rara Sham, they incinerated 35 trucks and buses while destroying a railway bridge near Kolpur and damaging the railway track to Iran, near Mastung. Dozens of Pakistanis were killed. Each terrorist attack was designed to achieve a specific objective. Furthermore, these terrorist attacks clearly point towards a unity of command which was controlling and directing the various groups within the BLA/BRAS to carry out these well-coordinated attacks. It must have selected the targets, allocated resources, decided the modalities, and desired effects of these attacks. It also reflects the strategic reach of these terrorist organisations and their ability to conduct terrorist attacks, although far apart yet coordinated in time, space, and effect. It further demonstrates the training these terrorists must have undergone to master such tactics and the use of the latest weapons, equipment, explosives, and communication systems that they were equipped with. The spread of the terrorist attacks, the variety of targets chosen, and their combined effect were reflective of the strategic objectives that their mentor(s) and master(s) intended to achieve. Critically, these terrorist attacks failed to further the professed cause of the BLA/BRAS! The pursuit of deep geopolitical and strategic objectives by RAW and other hostile intelligence agencies through these terrorist attacks on Pakistan is glaring, evident, and tangible!
Carrying out attacks on multiple targets spread out on a wide frontage was perhaps intended to overwhelm Pakistan’s response options and cause a degree of mental and operational paralysis. The consequent delayed action allowed the terrorists to carry out their attacks, make a clean break, disengage, and disappear. The crucial lack of intelligence on these attacks had a vital impact on this whole sordid episode of terrorism.
Were these terrorist attacks in Balochistan then carried out to validate critical parameters and paradigms for future attacks on an even larger scale?
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
